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The Impact of Demographic Shifts on Service Provision and Labour Market in New Zealand

This presentation by Professor Natalie Jackson explores the demographic forces shaping service provision and demand, particularly focusing on population aging in New Zealand. With projections indicating a larger elderly population than children and a contraction in the labor market, the implications for industries and regional economies are profound. The presentation highlights the challenges of a demographically tight labor market, decreased youth workforce, and regional disparities, as well as necessary adaptations in planning for an aging population.

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The Impact of Demographic Shifts on Service Provision and Labour Market in New Zealand

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  1. The demographic forces shaping service provision - and demand Natalie Jackson Professor of Demography, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd Presentation to WasteMINZROUNDUP 2014, Queenstown April 3rd2014

  2. Population ageing – what does it mean for WasteMINZ? • The demographic forces shaping our future • More elderly than children • Fewer labour market entrants than exits • More deaths than births > the end of growth • Urban agglomeration versus subnational population decline • Regional impacts of demographic and economic change (NgaTangata Oho Mairangi) - MBIE • The subnational mechanisms of the ending of growth – towards a theory of depopulation (Tai Timu Tangata, Taihoa e ) – Marsden • Jackson (forthcoming) Planning for a demographically-tight labour market - New Zealand’s ageing occupations and industries

  3. Population ageing – New Zealand style Me 8.6 % 65+ years 14.2% aged 65+

  4. The Big Picture

  5. The very big picture *US Census Bureau International Database; Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]

  6. Drilling down Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]

  7. Ageing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

  8. Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061 Already crossed over in 22% TAs New Zealand - more elderly than children within 12 years Projected

  9. Ageing-driven growth • Between 2011 and 2031 all growth in 56 (84%) Territorial Authority Areas is projected to be at 65+ years; all are projected to see overall decline at 0-64 years: • Only 11 TAs escape this scenario • Growth will end in most TAs

  10. 2013 Census • 2006-2013: Auckland accounted for 52% of growth • Auckland plus 11 cities accounted for 75% of growth • Elsewhere - patchy growth, widespread/ deepening decline • Of 1971 census area units with resident populations in 2006, 35% declined (647) or had zero growth (39) • The data confirm past trends / mixed futures..

  11. 2001-2006 • End of growth / depopulation not a new issue, but it is spreading and its cause is changing • Old form of decline = net migration loss (was resolvable) • New form of decline = net migration loss plus natural decline (self-reinforcing)

  12. This disparate situation is projected to continue Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)

  13. Enter - the demographically-tight labour market Baby Boomer Retirement (NZ 1 mill.) Competition for labour supply Between industries (incl. education), regions, countries..

  14. What do these trends mean for your industry? NZ: 28,000 fewer school leavers over the next 10 years Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

  15. ..it is happening - fewer school leavers are coming to a town near you

  16. ..it will get worse before it gets better – and then the respite will be patchy

  17. Already fewer younger than older employed workers

  18. Goodbye youth unemployment

  19. Enter ageing workforces - Source: The Economist, April 9 2011

  20. In 2013, Boomers aged 48-67 years New Zealand Employed Labour Force 1996, 2013 (+22.7%) 11.5% 9:10 27:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 27:10; 2006 = 9:10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database

  21. New Zealand’s Refuse Collectors 1996, 2013 (+19.9%) 9% 10:10 32:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 32:10; 2006 = 10:10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

  22. New Zealand’s Heavy Truck/Tanker Drivers 1996, 2013 (+6.7%) 9% 4:10 28:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 28:10; 2006 = 4:10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

  23. NZ’s Senior Government Administrators 1996-2013 (+140%) 16% 7:10 4:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =7:10; 2013 = 4: 10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

  24. Specialised Managers 1996-2013 (+72%) 12% 14:10 6:10 Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =14:10; 2013 = 6: 10 Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years

  25. Growing competition - -hello increasing labour costs

  26. There will be increasing competition generally The Economist, April 9th 2011

  27. Regional competition

  28. Regions - ageing rapidly – who you ‘gonna call? 65+ years: 16.4% (11.7%) 65+ years: 25.6% (19%)

  29. Regions differ markedly – Auckland OK, Christchurch.. ?? 65+ years: 11.2% (10.1%) 65+ years: 14.9% (13.4%)

  30. Most TA’s will soon have fewer labour market entrants than exits Observed Projected Hamilton? Source: Statistics New Zealand, Estimated Resident Population;(1996-2013) ;Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)

  31. Time to rethink demand/service delivery Population ageing is here to stay It is coming to a WasteMINZ service near you It will drive down labour supply and drive up labour costs It will see the permanent end of growth / onset of depopulation in most rural areas We urgently need to rethink most types of service delivery (and demand) Accept Buffer Collaborate/Conserve

  32. Thankyou • natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz • www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea

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