Indonesia AND AUSTRALIA

1. Indonesia AND AUSTRALIA Assoc Prof Greg Fealy Asialink Leaders Program, March 2013

2. outline • Key Indonesian historical events and Australia’s role • Current trends in Indonesia • Political • Economic • Socio-cultural and demographic • Contemporary Australia-Indonesia relations

3. Is indonesia important? • In what ways is Indonesia important to Australia? • What are key elements of discourse in Australia about Indonesia? • Does Australia over-emphasise Indonesia’s importance? • Is Indonesia more important to Australia than Australia is to it?

4. Indonesia’s importance • Military and Strategic • Threat of military attack from Indonesia • Invaders attacking through Indonesian archipelago • Impact of cooperation or antagonism in facing regional crises (eg China) • Diplomatic: Indonesian role in securing or denying Australian diplomatic ambitions • Economic: 12th most important trading partner • Cultural and Educational

5. Difference and self-definition • Much of discourse is about stark differences between Australia and Indonesia • Size and geography • Ethnicity • Religion • Wealth • Cultural heritage • Difference as threat or opportunity; defining Australia’s attitude to region through Indonesia • Compare Pauline Hanson and Paul Keating

6. Indonesian political History • Dutch colonial state • Japanese Occupation, 1942-45 • Indonesian Revolution, 1945-49 • Parliamentary Democracy, 1950-59 • Sukarno’s Guided Democracy, 1959-66 • Soeharto’s New Order Period, 1966-98 • Post-SoehartoReformasi, 1998-Present • 24 years of democracy; 39 years of authoritarianism

7. Sukarno Period (1945-1967) • Period of great political and regional instability as well as economic decline • Sukarno was a great champion of anti-colonialism and ‘Third World’ diplomatic activism • Staged Asia-Africa conference in 1955 • Leading role in formation of Non-Aligned Movement in 1961 • Vehemently opposed to Dutch retention of Papua (1945-1962) and British-sponsored creation of Malaysia in 1963 • Increasingly leftwards drift in Indonesian diplomacy during early to mid-1960s

9. ‘Crush Malaysia’ billboard from 1964

10. Mao and Sukarno, 1964

11. Suharto Period (1966-1998) • Period of political repression but rapid economic growth • Suharto implacably anti-communist and re-oriented Indonesian foreign policy towards West • Courted US and Japan, as well as World Bank and IMF • Rejoined the UN in late 1960s • Continued NAM role; reluctant OIC participant • Played key role in establishing ASEAN in 1967 • Believed region should be united against external threat and manipulation • Insisted on principle of non-intervention by ASEAN nations in each others’ affairs (‘The ASEAN Way’) and decisions through consensus • Strong APEC supporter

12. John Gorton and Soeharto

13. Soeharto chairing the 1994 NAM Conference in Jakarta

14. Post-Suharto Period (1998-Present) • Four Presidents (Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati and SBY) but considerable consistency in foreign policy outlook • Habibie travelled little; domestically preoccupied • Abdurrahman constantly abroad but little system to his foreign policy • Megawati was conservative and uneasy on diplomatic stage • All maintained priority on ASEAN but harmonious relations with West • Indonesian dominance of ASEAN greatly diminished during this period; greater Malaysian and Singaporean influence

15. ASEAN Members – Dark Blue ASEAN Observers – Light Blue ASEAN +3 Members – Red EAST ASIA SUMMIT – Red and Green ASEAN Regional Forum – Red, Green and Orange

16. SBY(2004-Present) • SusiloBambangYudhoyono has arguably been Indonesia’s most effective president abroad • Eloquent speeches, dignified bearing, quick to grasp policy details • Popular in West, among both governments and media • Lauded as model Muslim leader because a ‘moderate democrat’ • Pretensions of being world statesman but tendency to over-reach • Offered to broker peace in Middle East and Korean Peninsular • Failed attempts to mediate between Sunni and Shia

18. Indonesia’s Strategic Concerns • Paramount concern for unity and territorial integrity of the nation • Powerful sense of vulnerability due to colonial experience, geography and internal diversity • Indonesia’s bitter experience of Dutch colonialism • Dutch seen as exploitative, harsh and paternalistic • Left enduring perception that large foreign powers are inherently predatory and manipulative • This has fuelled Indonesia’s long non-aligned orientation

19. Indonesia’s Strategic Concerns • Indonesia is world’s largest archipelagic nation; 5000 kms from Aceh to Papua; some 18,000 islands • Attendant problems for archipelagos: porous borders, difficulties in transport and communications, obstacles in administering and defending far-flung territories • Fear of loss of islands: Malaysia’s successful case to sovereignty over Sidapan and Ligitan islands • Sheer complexity of ethnic, religious and cultural make-up raises risk of disintegration • History of separatism based on ethnic, religious or regional economic sentiment

20. Indonesia’s Strategic Concerns • All these combine to give many Indonesians a spectre of insecurity • At times, can have almost paranoiac overtones • Discourses about other countries seeking to break Indonesia up for their own purposes • To extract its wealth, to pursue religious or strategic agendas • Australia, US, Britain, the Netherlands, Malaysia, Singapore, Israel, China and Japan all placed, at different times, in this discourse of threats

21. Broader Indonesia Strategic Concerns • Malaysian border disputes, especially re Ambalat • Increase in naval capability partly directed at Malaysians • SBY specifically referred in cabinet to stopping Malaysia pushing Indonesia around • China’s South China Sea policies and impact upon ASEAN and regional stability • Phnom Penh impasse on ASEAN communique • People smuggling (rather than boat people) • Terrorism and insurgency issues

25. Indonesian Suspicions of Australia • Australia’s role in supporting Indonesian independence in 1945-49 • Irritation over Australia’s support for Dutch retention of West Irian/Papua in late 1950s and early 1960s • East Timor destabilised relations from mid-1970s till early 2000s • Papua now most sensitive issue in bilateral relationship

26. Sukarno and Critchley

28. Papua • Widespread view in Indonesian political and military elite after 1999 that Australian govt actively supporting Papuan independence • BIN report on secret Cosgrove-led committee • TNI plans for ‘re-taking’ Papua from Australia • From 1999-c.2005 constant Indonesian demands for Australia to affirm territorial integrity • Papuan issue has eased in recent years but strong possibility of re-emergence due to rising separatist sentiment

32. Lombok Treaty • Partly intended to allay Indonesian fears that Australia might support Papuan separatism (following granting of refugee status to Papuan independence activists) • Key clause: [two sides promise] ‘not to … support or participate in activities … which constitute a threat to sovereignty and territorial integrity’ • Underlying tone of mistrust and suspicion rather than shared interests and concerns • Unlikely to have significant impact on relations

33. Who is more important in bi-lateral relationship?

37. ‘Thank heavens for SBY!’ • SBY has been forgiving president regarding Australian missteps. Repeatedly responded helpfully and calmed domestic irritation. • Ban on live cattle exports • Boat people • Clemency for Schappelle Corby • US marines in northern Australia • Cocos Islands as US naval base • ‘SBY is as good as it gets for Australia’

38. Bright prospects • Indonesia predicted to be major economic force in next few decades • Numerous international agencies have Indonesia as one of top ten economies by 2020-2025 (currently 18th) • Favourable demographics fuelling strong domestic demand • Now a trillion-dollar economy, a G20 member and IMF donor • Hal Hill: good times in Indonesia lead to bad policies • Some evidence of this already: growing sense that growth is irreversible leading to less discipline • Premature sense of global importance and risk of over-reaching

39. Contemporary politics • Indonesia consistently lauded as only ‘fully’ democratic nation in Southeast Asia and also one of few Muslim majority democracies in the world. • Praised as model of tolerance and pluralism • Praise not entirely deserved • Indonesia experiencing some democratic regression: elite forces driving process but staunch resistance from civil society and media (eg of Anti-Corruption Commission and changing election laws) • Worsening record of religious intolerance (greater restrictions on religious expression and growing sectarianism)

40. Presidential elections • Significance of 2014 parliamentary and presidential elections: victory to an autocratic or oligarchic leaders could accelerate anti-democratic trend; progressive leader could revive reform process • Leading candidates are PrabowoSubianto and JokoWidodo – stark choice between them • Prabowo is former 3-star general who was dismissed for human rights abuses • Highly articulate and intellectual but also ruthless • Led polls until late 2012

42. Jokowi • Elected governor of Jakarta in Sept 2012 after successful stint as Surakarta mayor • Very unconventional but charismatic politician with strong grassroots appeal • Changed dynamics of politics during 2012 • Now leading most polls and seemingly has momentum to win nomination

44. Post-SBY Australian-Indonesian Relations • Possibility of much less congenial Indonesian president from 2014 • Worst case scenario would be PrabowoSubianto • Risks for bilateral relations in Australian assertiveness on boat people • Indonesia punching below weight in international fora • ‘One million friends and zero enemies’ approach leads to risk avoidance and minimal gains