Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in

1. Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in Mekong River Delta and Affect on Farmer’s Livelihood Nguyen Thi Hien Thuan Sub-Institute of Hydrometeorology of South Vietnam Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC AIACC AS 07

2. CONTENTS • Objectives • Scope and method of study • Main activities • Major findings

3. Objectives: • To understand the long term impacts of climate change on rice production in Mekong River Delta • To understand the vulnerability of community in the Mekong River Delta from impacts of climate change on rice production • To seek adaptation option(s) on such impacts to minimize vulnerability to the community

4. Scope and Method of study: • Analysis of impact of climate change on rice production • To simulate the yield of rain-fed rice production in the MRD under different climate scenarios (1.5 x CO2 and 2 x CO2) using DSSAT crop modeling technique. • Climate scenarios with outputs from CCAM regional climate model, are generated to analyze the change of rice yield in the region. • Produce climate risk map of rice production by comparing the change in the yield of rice from observed average actual yield and the result from the simulation.

5. Scope and Method of study: • Assessment on climate risk at the commune level • Conduct field survey • Analyze how the community livelihood may depend on the rice production • Analyze the capacity to cope with disaster • Produce vulnerability map – consider the community which have household income reduction beyond “acceptable” level and does not have sufficient alternate source of income to maintain their livelihood.

6. Main Activities: • Phase 1: Simulation of the yield of rice production using DSSAT 4.0. Need data from VN as input to the model include: crop management data, soil properties, weather data (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hours). • Phase 2: Field survey assessment to cover 4 provinces of the MRD of Viet Nam: Long An, Can Tho, Dong Thap, An Giang. Coverage of assessment in each province covers 2 communes per district and 4 districts per province.

7. Study areas 4 provinces: Long An, CÇn Th¬, §ång Th¸p, An Giang • - Located in the MRD in VN • Rice production is a major agricultural activity, >1 mil ton of rice product per year • Rice production is highly affected by climate factors (floods/inundations, droughts, inappropriate rains, …

9. Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production • Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax, Tmin, SRAD) at different CO2 concentration • 1.0xCO2: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline • 1.5xCO2: 2040 - 2049 • 2.0xCO2 : 2066 – 2075 • The simulation has been made for each year of the 3 scenarios. The typical extreme cases have been selected: dry/median/wet years

10. Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production: DSSAT crop model simulation results DSSAT software has been used for rice yield simulation for 1978 – 2002 for each of 4 provinces with: - 2 rice types: IR64, IR66 (short-term rice ~ 90-95 days) - 3 soil types: Alluvium, shallow acid sulfate soil, deep acid sulfate soil - Irrigated and non-irrigated crops Climate Scenarios: CCAM model outputs (R, Tmax, Tmin, SRAD) at different CO2 concentrations • 1.0xCO2: 1980 - 1989 as a baseline • 1.5xCO2: 2040 - 2049 • 2.0xCO2 : 2066 – 2075 The simulation has been made for each period of the 3 scenarios. The typical extreme cases have been selected:dry/median/wetyears

12. CCAM rainfall scenariosDry/wet year for 1.0CO2 (upper)1.5CO2 (middle), 2.0CO2(lower)

13. Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios(average value for each scenario compared with baseline)

14. Rice yield anomalies of different scenarios (%)

15. Rice yield anomalies of different scenarios (%)

16. Rice yield anomalies of different climate scenarios

17. Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios 2.0xCO2 scenario Winter-Spring rice Dry Median Wet 1.5xCO2 scenario

18. Change in rice yield in different CC scenarios Summer-Autumn rice Dry Median Wet 1.5xCO2 scenario 2.0xCO2 scenario

19. Field Survey • The survey was conducted at 4 provinces of MRD: Long An, Can Tho, Dong Thap and An Giang x 4 districts x 2 communes, total of 40 agricultural officials + 64 farmers. • Information collected from survey includes: • General household condition (Total land area; crop area – 1 crop, 2 crops, 3 crops per year; rice growing area; population, labour,…) • Household economic conditions (total income, income from rice production, other income sources, Hh expenditure, surplus revenue, land ownership,…) • Climate risk groups (based on multiple indicators) • Coping capacity & strategy

20. Climate Risk Analysis: MeasurementMulti-criteria, multiple indicators

21. Climate Risk Analysis Climate risk groups: value Scoring:12 – 19 = Low vulnerability(13 Households)>19 – 26 = Moderate vulnerability(34 Households)> 26 – 32 = High vulnerability(17 Households)

22. Climate Risk Low vulnerable farmers(13 Households)Moderate vulnerable farmers(34 Households)High vulnerable farmers(17 Households)

23. Coping strategies

24. Coping strategies

25. Coping strategies

26. CONCLUSIONS • Rice production in the MRD tends to reduce in the future from impacts of CC. The adverse impacts are more serious in extreme years, especially in dry conditions. • The multi-criteria technique is used in the assessment of rain-fed farmer vulnerability to climate impact. A method has been set up to categorize vulnerability groups, their socio-economic condition and the sensitivity to climate impact on rice production. • Farmers in the MekongRiver delta area seems to have sufficient capacity to cope with the impact of climate change on rice production due to the high productivity level and existing coping mechanism. However, due to heavy dependency on rice production and the lack of CC awareness, a large number of faming households are moderately –highly vulnerable to CC.

27. Thank You for your Attention! Impact of Climate Change on Rain-fed Rice Production in Mekong River Delta and Affect on Farmer’s Livelihood AIACC AS 07