Professor Glenn Wilson, Gresham College, London

1. CRIMINAL MINDS Professor Glenn Wilson, Gresham College, London

2. WHAT IS CRIME? Crime is distinguished from vice. Activities aimed at satisfying personal desires, without malice, are not consistently outlawed. Prostitution, pornography, drug-taking, gambling, abortion & euthanasia may be immoral and degrading but are only indictable in some times/places. Murder, burglary, assault, robbery & rape involve intent to harm and are crimes in virtually all societies. Anti-vice laws are often counter-productive, “the cure being worse than the disease”. Decriminalisation of homosexuality, pornography, adultery, prostitution & abortion in many countries did not result in the social chaos some feared. Prohibition in the US (1920-33) was a “failed experiment” resulting in massive corruption and the rise of gangsters like Al Capone.

3. RISK FACTORS A great many risk factors (preceding characteristics) have been identified for delinquency and crime. Some apply mostly to one gender (Day & Wanklyn, 2013). Generally unsurprising correlates telling little about cause and effect. e.g., Parental separation, conflict and maltreatment may be causes but could equally reflect genetic transmission of antisocial traits.

4. CRIME AND POVERTY Looting in the 2011 London riots targeted luxury goods such as electronics and designer trainers, not necessities. Envy, entitlement and excitement seem more explanatory than poverty and deprivation. Popular belief that crime is due to poverty/deprivation is not supported. UK crime increased most sharply between 1950 and 1970, when we “never had it so good”. It is now declining despite “austerity”. Relative poverty correlates inversely with crime rates within and across nations (Fraser, 2011). Social problems of all kinds congregate within neighbourhoods but one does not necessarily cause the others.

5. UNEMPLOYMENT Widely believed that unemployment causes crime but again connection is unclear. Petty criminals are more likely to be out of work than non-criminals but evidence that changes in levels of unemployment affect crime rates is lacking. During Hugo Chavez’ rule in Venezuela (1999-2013) unemployment halved while the murder rate tripled. Official US figures for unemployment and crime show minimal relationship.

6. PERCEIVED UNFAIRNESS A radical egalitarian culture promoting the view that inequality is illegitimate has been suggested as a crime factor but this idea is not supported across nations (Stack, 1984). Wage discrepancies in the US have increased in recent decades. What could matter is rubbing shoulders with richer people, thus raising awareness of inequity. Ethnic mixes and income differentials within localneighbourhoods in the US do seem to increase crime (Hipp, 2007).

7. MORAL COMPASS TheCambridge Institute of Criminology followed 700 Peterborough youth over a decade (Wickstrom et al, 2012). A tiny band of 4% were responsible for half of all offending (averaging 278 crimes by age 16). They were versatile in their offending, regularly committing burglary, theft, violence and vandalism. They admitted having no conscience or self-control. The majority who were law-abiding did not lack opportunity or fear the consequences but saw crime as “morally wrong”.

8. CONSCIENCE FAILURE Eysenck (1964) theorised that criminality was associated with poor fear conditioning (= weak conscience). Gao et al (2009) studied 1795 Mauritian children, measuring electrodermal conditioning at age 3. At age 23, 137 of the cohort who had acquired a criminal record were compared with 274 non-criminals, matched for sex, ethnicity and social adversity. The criminal group showed deficient fear conditioning. The authors implicate the amygdala and prefrontal dysfunction in children who grow up to be criminals.

9. ABSENT FATHERS In some parts of UK, the majority of households are single-parent (mainly mother). Suggested that lack of male role model increases crime but non-correlational evidence is hard to obtain. Bambico et al (2013) raised California mice (normally monogamous and biparental) without fathers. Deprived mice (but only females) showed social deficits and increased aggression - also structural changes in the medial prefrontal cortex. Consistent with human studies showing father-deprived daughters are more susceptible to drug abuse.

10. TV VIEWING Time spent viewing TV in childhood (ages 5-15 years) is associated with anti-social behaviour, aggression and crime in young adulthood. True for both males and females and after controlling for IQ & social class (Robertson et al, 2013). Again, a longitudinal study consistent with a causal relationship but other possible mediating factors (e.g., antisocial parents; disobedience of parental attempts to limit viewing.)

11. LEAD POISONING Crime has fallen since lead was removed from petrol and paint . Environmental lead is shown to impair IQ and increase ADHD. Bone lead is linked to various forms of crime & delinquency (Nevin, 2000). Persuasive, but falling crime could be due to many other factors (e.g., aging population, tougher policing, increased incarceration). In 6 US cities air Pb “explained” 90% of variance in aggravated assaults 22 years later (Mielke & Zharan, 2012).

12. SECURITY DEVICES Opportunity is a major factor in crime - it flourishes when made easy. Some types are falling because modern technology has made them difficult (Farrell, 2013). Car theft plunged with sophisticated alarms, immobilisers, trackers and automatic number plate recognition. Burglar alarms, DNA analysis, CCTV and mobile phone location increase the likelihood of burglars getting caught (a major deterrent). Many household items once valuable are now hardly worth stealing (DVD players etc). Some new types of crime are increasing (card fraud, web scams).

13. BEING WATCHED CCTV and other security devices have helped in crime deterrence and detection but have also altered clothing favoured by criminals (hoodies) and may deflect crime to other places. Signs at a university campus warning bicycle thieves they were being watched led to a 62% decrease in theft nearby but a 65% increase at control locations (Nettle et al, 2012).

14. PRE-CRIME FORECASTS Computer modelling of crime patterns helps police deploy resources to locations likely to be targeted by criminals, esp. for burglary, mugging & car theft (Hering & Blair, 2014). Hotspots are not identical to past occurrences. Near repeats are more common (e.g., houses close to those recently burgled). Burglars seem to act like wild animals looking for food – returning to sites previously found productive but moving on when these are exhausted.

15. ZERO TOLERANCE Crackdowns on minor offences like graffiti, vandalism and fare-dodging appear to reduce crime across the board. Techniques include police presence in trouble spots and roadside checks on cars. Even mending broken windows may help to reclaim the streets from gang control. Approach appeared to work in 1990s New York and was copied in other US cities (also Liverpool under Bernard Hogan-Howe). Reputation for toughness is important within gangs - members often commit crimes for status-enhancement. Making it “tough” to get away with minor offences reduces the need to commit major crimes (Dur & Van der Weele, 2013). Falls in NY violent crime were impressive under Mayor Giuliani but had begun earlier.

16. CRIMINAL GENES Twin studies show that criminality is genetically influenced, esp. lifetime criminality (heritability estimates ranging from 40-70%). In the US, 5% of families account for half the arrests - partly due to genes and partly mating patterns (Beaver, 2013). Adoption studies find criminal behaviour (esp. burglary) relates more strongly to biological father than foster father (Mednick et al, 1984). The adoptive environment also has an effect on criminal behaviour - additive with genetic effect (Kendler et al, 2013) Dopamine genes that increase risk of violent crime (DAT1, DRD2, DRD4) are more common in neighbourhoods that are poor and violent (Barnes et al, 2013).

17. PERSONALITY AND CRIME Relationship between genes and crime is probably mediated by personality traits. Thrill-seeking, aggressiveness, impulsiveness and negative emotionality go with criminality; also low agreeableness & conscientiousness (Reid, 2011). Applies for both men and women but some traits are more pronounced in men, hence male preponderance of crime. Different types of crime are no doubt associated with different personality profiles. Fraud tends to go with arrogance, psychopathy and higher IQ than burglary.

18. ADHD AND CRIME Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder is a controversial condition, - concern about over diagnosis and treatment. Still a behavioural problem associated with crime (30-40% of long-term criminals may have ADHD). Large-scale Swedish study (25,656 patients): those on medication showed a reduced crime rate over 4 years (32% for men, 41% for women). Reductions applied to various types of drug (stimulant and non-stimulant) and serious as well as petty crimes. Treatment compliance may have partly mediated these effects but result is still noteworthy.

19. PSYCHOPATHY Psychopathy is a personality disorder characterised by lack of empathy, impulsiveness, sensation-seeking, manipulative and antisocial behaviour. More common in criminals (around 15-20%) but many non-criminal people also show psychopathic traits (business executives & bomb disposal more than caring professions like nursing). Psychopathy is connected with over-activity in dopamine reward system (approach tendencies) and under-functioning of prefrontal brain areas concerned with moral restraint and pro-social emotions like guilt and embarrassment (Gregory et al, 2012). The nucleus accumbens (depicted) is part of the dopamine reward system that is often over-active in psychopaths.

20. THE LOOK OF A CROOK Criminals can be distinguished beyond chance from non-criminals from headshots alone (even after controlling for gender, race, age, attractiveness and emotional expression). Cues unclear but may be signs of masculinity. Different types of criminal (theft, murder, arson, rape, forgery, etc) not distinguished. Fits with fact that criminals do not specialise (most commit several types of crime). Exception: women poor at spotting rapists (inclined to see them as non-criminal). Rapists seem to have evolved “camouflage” enabling them to get close to women. Sample of stimuli used by Valla et al (2011). 3 = rape, 4 = assault, 5 = arson, 1,2,6 = non-criminal

21. IS CRIMINALITY ADAPTIVE? Psychopathy may not be “dysfunctional” but an evolved life strategy with genetic benefits that outweigh the disadvantages. Krupp et al (2013): evidence that their violence is nepotistic (directed mainly against unrelated people). Psychopaths are often attractive to women. Lynn (1995) found that criminals have higher fecundity (avge 3.91 children vs 2.21 for non-criminal controls from same social class/urban residence). Dysgenic forces may contribute to criminal behaviour. Nikko Jenkins, who killed 4 people in a shooting spree, is one of an Omaha family of 38 descendants of the same man responsible for 633 crimes since 1979.

22. COMPULSIVE CRIME? Armed robber Trevor Hayes was serving an indefinite term in prison when a brain tumour was discovered in his frontal lobe that might have caused his aggressiveness. (His previous record was mostly petty theft). Defence lawyers argued that following surgery he was no longer dangerous. Judge in London’s Appeal Court reduced his sentence to 11 years, saying that Hayes still “knew what he doing was wrong”. In Italy, a murderer had his sentence reduced because he carried 5 genes associated with violence (Feresin, 2009). Illogical because this defendant would be just as dangerous after release.

23. NEUROCRIMINOLOGY In The Anatomy of Violence , Raine (2013) says murderers may be identified by brain scans showing underactivity in the prefrontal cortex. This implies poor control of limbic regions that generate anger and violence. Psychopaths often have a small amygdala and an exceptionally low heart rate. Epigenetics also important and environmental factors like child neglect & abuse, poor nutrition, prenatal smoking & drinking contribute to development of criminal brains. PET-scan evidence presented in court by Raine helped murderer Donta Page escape the death penalty.

24. PREDICTING REOFFENSE Error-related fMRI activity in the anterior cingulate cortex recorded during an impulse-control (go/no-go) task predicted rearrest within 4 years of release in a group of 96 US offenders. The odds of an offender with low ACC activity being rearrested were double those of high ACC activity (Ahoroni et al, 2013). This measure is not sufficiently accurate for making life-altering individual decisions.

25. RECIVIDISM According to Ministry of Justice figures, 1 in 3 UK criminals is a serial offender with at least 15 previous convictions. Only 10% of those cautioned or convicted in the UK 2012 were first-time offenders (Salkend, 2013). This is commonly said to show that “prison does not work”. What it really shows is that short sentences are ineffective. The public is protected for the time the criminal is in prison. Criminals on bail commit a crime every 10 minutes, including 2 rapes per week & 1 in 7 murders (Doyle 2013). Shoplifter Robert Knowles (66) has been in court every year since 1959. Last year, following his 330th conviction, he was jailed for 4 months but immediately released because of time spent in custody.

26. “THREE STRIKES” LAW 25 US States have introduced a “3 strikes and you’re out” law - a 3rd felony offence incurring a mandatory life sentence. Inflexibility has led to many anomalies - draconian sentences for minor infringements. Scheme is costly in raising prison populations and largely ineffective as deterrent. Even a slight increase in murder due to criminals having nothing further to lose (c.f., death penalty). Some 2nd strikers are prompted to move State. Kovandzic et al (2004) found no obvious reduction in crime levels under US “3-strike” laws. Crime rates in non-participating States declined similarly.

27. WHAT IS PRISON FOR? Imprisonment rates have increased in recent decades but purpose is unclear. Some think punishment but prison, however unpleasant, is an oblique and wasteful method. Some say deterrence but prison is little feared by career criminals and may actually be a “school for crime”. Rehabilitation ?- prison is stigmatising, breaks family ties and fails to prevent reoffending (Pritikin, 2008). Drugs and unprotected sex (often coercive) are rife in prison and suicide rate raised 10x. Retribution is immature; often based on outcome, not intent of behaviour. Containment of people who are dangerous to the community is perhaps the only proper use of prison; may apply to a minority of people currently imprisoned prison. Vicky Price was jailed for perjury after taking her husband’s “speeding points”. She was not dangerous and might have been punished in other ways.

28. COMMUNITY SERVICE A good alternative to prison when offenders are not dangerous is community service. This has elements of punishment (deprivation of free time), reparation (payback) and rehabilitation (maintaining family ties and promoting a work ethic). Although humiliating, it is more civilised than prison, and less expensive (though supervision is required). It is superior to prison in reducing recidivism (Vogelgesang et al, 2010). Probation with electronic tagging can also be effective (Killias et al, 2010) but offers no payback to the community. Footballer Joey Barton was sentenced to 200 hrs community service for assault. Others include Vinnie Jones, Mike Tyson & Boy George.

29. LEOPARDS AND SPOTS Rehabilitation is difficult for many criminals, especially those who are psychopaths. Despite being more likely to reoffend, psychopaths often charm their way to early release (Porter et al, 2009). There is ongoing debate as to whether psychopaths are treatable (Wilson & Tamatea, 2013) and whether they are morally responsible, or themselves victims (Glenn et al, 2013). Developments in neurocriminology raise questions as to whether concepts like “free will” and “culpability” have any usefulness in a forensic context. Criminal intent and future risk are what really matter.