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Scenario Development

Scenario Development. Biol. 595 Oct. 28, 2009. Land-use Framework. The Land-use Framework establishes three desired outcomes for Alberta: A healthy economy supported by our land and natural resources; Healthy ecosystems and environment ; and

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Scenario Development

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  1. Scenario Development Biol. 595 Oct. 28, 2009

  2. Land-use Framework The Land-use Framework establishes three desired outcomes for Alberta: • A healthy economy supported by our land and natural resources; • Healthyecosystems and environment; and • People-friendly communities with ample recreational and cultural opportunities. “Balance”

  3. Regional Plans • Intended to paint a picture of how a region should look over the next50 years; • Articulate desired outcomes for aregion, which should reflect andintegrate provincial policies and objectives set by Cabinet; • Set thresholds to manage the cumulative effects of development at the regional level; • Consider cross-boundary issues.

  4. Regional Plans The plan will describe what must be done to achieve the regional vision and outcomes, and it will set quantitative, measurable targets and thresholds in this regard. The plan will also identify trade-offs and choices that will be made in the region to balance economic development with environmental and social considerations, and it will provide rationale for these choices.

  5. Economic Objectives Energy scenarios: • Low: 1.5-2.0 million barrels/day (mbd) • Medium: 4.0-4.5 mbd • High: 6 mbd Forestry: • Maintain current AAC Minimize the cost of environmental protection

  6. Environmental Objectives • Maintain biodiversity through: • A zonation approach (triad) • Industrial best practices • Access management • Combined approach • Protect airsheds and watersheds through the setting of regional air and water thresholds which serve as limits on industrial cumulative impacts.

  7. Defining the Base Case • Define spatial and temporal scale • Identify outcomes of interest • Define indicators and RNV (where appropriate) • Identify processes for inclusion in the model: • Key drivers, external drivers, secondary processes, excluded processes • Parameterize the model assuming that current policies, processes and trends continue as they have in the past.

  8. Defining Alternative Scenarios • Identify the key management levers to be manipulated and the amount of change to be applied. • Package related management actions into composite scenarios • Iterative refinement of scenarios

  9. Scenarios: Guiding Principles • Cover the full scope of the problem • But . . . also aim for parsimony: • Increased complexity = increased time, problems, and difficulty interpreting and communicating results • Maximize learning: • Identify important contrasts • Keep land management context in mind

  10. Decision Support • Develop and run the base case and alternative scenarios • Identify and bound key uncertainties • Analyze and summarize results across all runs: • Synthesize and communicate results: • Key learnings • Explain tradeoffs; what is possible and what is not • What are the pros and cons of alternative actions

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