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Well before 2035: We are headed for irretrievable breakdown

Institute for Sustainability, Health and Environment Inaugural Conference Anticipating tomorrow for changing today UWE, Bristol, 21 st April 2009 Sara Parkin Founder Director www.forumforthefuture.org.uk.

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Well before 2035: We are headed for irretrievable breakdown

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  1. Institute for Sustainability, Health and Environment Inaugural ConferenceAnticipating tomorrow for changing todayUWE, Bristol, 21st April 2009Sara ParkinFounder Directorwww.forumforthefuture.org.uk

  2. What will relationship between health and environmental sustainability look like in 2035 and what to do now? Well before 2035: • We are headed for irretrievable breakdown • Government chief scientists expects a ‘perfect storm’ of catastrophes What to do • Heed Obama’s advisors • Let realism and urgency infect everything we do • Start an emergency programme to build ‘sustainability literacy’

  3. Symptoms of Unsustainability Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 15 out of 24 ecosystem services are degraded or being used unsustainably Millennium Development Goals 2005 “If current trends exist there is a risk many of the poorest countries will not be able to meet many of them”

  4. Big symptom of unsustainability – climate change manifest globally & locally

  5. Climatic Trends Observations confirm worst-case IPCC trajectories are being realised. Social disruption Many societies are highly vulnerable to even modest levels of climate change Long-Term Strategy Rapid, sustained, and effective mitigation is required to avoid "dangerous climate change" Equity Dimensions Climate change will have strongly differential effects on people (intra and inter-generational) and biodiversity. Inaction is Inexcusable Many of the tools and approaches to deal effectively with the climate change challenge already exist. Meeting the Challenge Need to overcome significant constraints (e.g. inertia in economic and social systems) and seize critical opportunities (development of the green economy). Copenhagen: key messages

  6. The (im)perfect storm Source: CSA March 2009

  7. Unsustainable development Shrinking supply side • Growing demand side • 1946 2.2 billion • 1972 3.6 billion • 6.8 billion • 2035 8.5 billion • 2050 9.2 (10.7) billion “Normally, large, aggressive, predatory mammals are rare – humans have broken this rule” Colin Tudge, 2005

  8. Numbers matter, but so does space and impact people carbon emissions per sq km p/capita p/year tonnes Bangladesh 954 0.2 Netherlands 468 8.7 England & Wales 389 11 China 143 2.2 European Union (25) 118 2.8 Kenya 53 0.3 USA 29 19.8 Multiple sources

  9. Inequality in GHG emissions N America tons CO2e/y per person Europe Middle East North Africa S and C America 5 Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Population (billions) Watkinson LWEC

  10. The impacts of population change on GHG emissions 1 billion fewer people in Africa 4 billion fewer people in Asia and Africa 1 billion fewer US-style consumers Watkinson LWEC

  11. Population policy in the UK? • 33-40% pregnancies (all ages) unplanned, rising to 90% in teenagers • Inconsistent relationship and sex education • Difficult to access services and full choice of contraceptives • Child benefit • Aging population seen as needing more births • No links between population and environment

  12. “leadership matters, no trend is immutable, and timely and well-informed intervention can decrease the likelihood and severity of negative developments and increase the likelihood of positive ones.” • Global Trends 2025: A transformed world US National Intelligence Council

  13. BACK TO THE PAST … or … FORWARD TO SUS’Y?? can you imagine a different future? inthe depression What are you teaching? We are here

  14. Sustainability Literacy • Understand why behaviour needs to change • Have the knowledge and skills to behave differently • Be able to recognise and reward right behaviour in others Forum for the Future, UK Sustainable Development Strategy

  15. Four Habits of Thought • Resilience • Relationships • Reflection • Reverence

  16. CarbonWatchers: per capita targets 11 tonnes now, 7 by 2020, 2 by 2050 • cut out waste • grow natural capital Two will do population policy • bust myths that population growth is good • keep old active and healthy Grow human and social capital • improve mental and physical health • build capacity to participate – and take action • develop community resilience Sustainability and health priorities

  17. Make the connections, win the argument freedom from calamity prosperity enjoyment of health WELFARE HEALTH BEING WELL HAPPY soundness of fortunate body/mindWEALTHcontent wholesome prosperity felicitous thriving flourishing all of these are cheaper than the opposite

  18. “Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest” Mark Twain Thank you for listening! www.forumforthefuture.org Forum for the Future

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