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  1. NameDate Venezuela International Security Studies Briefing

  2. Overview • Causes of Conflict • US Involvement • Forecast and Recommendations • Conclusion/Summary

  3. Cause of Conflict HUGO CHAVEZ President of Venezuela

  4. Cause of ConflictBackground on Chavez • Chavez serving second term as president • Attempted coup d’e`tat 4 Feb 92 • Imprisoned and pardoned by Rafael Caldera ‘94 • Founded MVR (Movimiento Quinta Republica) “V” being Roman numeral five • Two attempts to unseat him: • 2002 coup d’e`tat • 2004 recall referendum • Views himself as focal point of opposition

  5. Cause of Conflict • The driving cause of tension between Venezuela and the U.S. • Chavez has formed some uncomfortable alliances with Cuba, Russia, and Iran • Openly opposes US leadership

  6. Cause of Conflict • OIL • Venezuela is having a huge impact on the price of oil globally • Reduced oil extraction • Renegotiation w/oil comp. • OPEC to follow suit $3 per gal is not sexy

  7. Cause of Conflict • Chavez seizes Hurricane Katrina opportunity • 1st gov’t to offer aid to U.S. • Tons of food and water • Mobile hospital units & medical specialists • Power generators • 1 million barrels of petroleum • Proposed to sell 66K barrels of discounted heating fuel • The Bush administration refused this aid • Later agreed to purchase in Nov • Chavez strong oil card

  8. Cause of Conflict • Background on Chavez • Driving cause of conflict • Global impact • Public perception Meow City *

  9. U.S. Involvement • Drug Trafficking • Both countries working a collaborative effort to combat drugs (Diplomatic Instrument of Power) • US planned 700,000 for counter narcotics (Economic instrument of power) • US provide military support to International Military Education and Training in Venezuela (Military Instrument of Power) “Cocaine is a helluva drug” – Rick James

  10. U.S. Involvement • Oil • US buys about two-thirds of Venezuela's oil • US involvement-Economic and Political (Protecting our international and Economic interest) • Overthrowing Chavez • Attempts on his life $3 per gal is not sexy

  11. Future Expectations • Policy-makers changing • Combating rising oil prices • Limited Continuation of counter-drug efforts • Removal from office or erased

  12. Recommendations • No military actions at this time • Thorough use of political IOP • Continuously assess the situation and adjust … sanctions, policy, procedures etc. • Can I recommend 2 bullets in his melon?

  13. Summary • Causes of Conflict • US Involvement • Forecast and Recommendations • Conclusion/Summary