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Timescale Mismatches

This thought piece explores how ecological systems operate on varied timescales compared to human activities, using cases like Lake Erie eutrophication. It identifies mismatches and suggests behavioral solutions, offering a decision framework and typology of timescale mismatches. The focus is on addressing structural interactions to achieve sustainable management.

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Timescale Mismatches

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  1. Timescale Mismatches David J. Hardisty Sauder School of Business University of British Columbia

  2. People • Project with SESYNC • Interdisciplinary group – mostly natural scientists (forestry, fish & wildlife, etc) • Alain Hastings, Lynn McGuire, Robyn Wilson, many others

  3. Overview • Thought piece • Ecological systems operate on longer and shorter (!) timescales than humans • Illustrated in 3 cases:- Eutrophication of western Lake Erie- Forest fires in western US- Emerald ash borer and invasive species • Identify comment points where different types of mismatches arise • Suggest (behavioral) solutions

  4. Structural interactions

  5. Decision Framework

  6. Typology of timescale mismatches

  7. Western Lake Erie Eutrophication • Phosphorus is used for farming • Runoff causes harmful algal blooms • Algal blooms also exacerbated by warmer temperatures and wetter weather

  8. Mismatches • Lag between policy actions (annual), farmer actions (annual), and water quality response (decadal to generational) • Short term fluctuations in water quality due to weather • Annual economic goals, long term protection of ecology and economy

  9. Behavioral Solutions • Decision analytic tools for policy makers • Economic incentives for adoption of new technologies • Choice bracketing: fertilizer application framed as multi-annual choice(comprehensive nutrient management planning) • Display lake eutrophication as a running 3-year average rather than annual (reduce peak-end) • Focus on tracking behavioral drivers (phosphorus) rather than consequence (eutrophication) • Display current levels of eutrophication as losses with respect to some healthy reference point • Use social norms to provide immediate social benefit for farmers to change behavior • Other ideas?

  10. Other cases • Forest fires • Invasive species • Solutions? • Journals?

  11. Thank You!

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