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Estimation of Future Interregional Labor Migration for Regional Development Policy

This study analyzes interregional labor migration using input-output calculations to forecast population shifts and labor demand impacts on migration flows. The research aims to assess the effects of changing migration patterns on regions losing population, sectoral labor demands, and the forecasting model for interregional migration. The study investigates factors influencing labor distribution, such as retirements, dismissals, emigration, internal and foreign labor migration, and regional growth rates. It also suggests considering environmental and accessibility factors in labor force modeling.

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Estimation of Future Interregional Labor Migration for Regional Development Policy

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  1. Ekaterina EDINAK Ivan KOROLEV Andrey KOROVKIN Estimation of future interregional labour migration on the base input-outputcalculations 26th INFORUM World Conference 2018, Poland, Lodz

  2. Changes of population internal migratory flows (the balance)

  3. Changes of internal labour migratory flows (the balance)

  4. The questions we are looking for answer in research • Could we provide with the labour force regions which now are losing their population by changing pattern of internal migration if the government starts to provide the active structure-investment policy? • How changes in sectors labour demand in regions will impact the internal migration flows? A possible solution To build the forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration to meet the labour needs of regions.

  5. A possible solution RIM (CONTO) NORM Forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration Balances of labour recourses at the regional level Population projection at the regional level

  6. The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step 1. Retirement Mortality Dismissal Emigration

  7. The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step internal labour force 2. labour migrants from other regions foreign labour migrants

  8. The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step

  9. The forecasting multi-regional/sectoral distribution model of interregional labour migration: step by step 5. For each region:

  10. Following situations within region: 1. 2. 3.

  11. On the model base the next forecast assessments can be obtained

  12. On the model base the next forecast assessments can be obtained Scenario conditions

  13. The average growth rate of GRP byFederal Districts, %, 2017-2030

  14. The averagegrowth rate of labour demandby Federal Districts, %, 2017-2030

  15. The averagegrowth rate of labour demand by sectors, %, 2017-2030

  16. The balance of the future interregional labour migration (preliminary results of the study) 2030 2020

  17. Research perspectives: • To consider various restrictions in modeling of labour force distribution between regions and sectors. • Apart from economic factors of region and sector attractiveness the other factors such as weather, transport accessibility etc will be take into account. • The more specified analysis at the regions level is needed.

  18. Thank you for attention!

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