Update

1. Update • Make-up • Khoury 308: 12.30 – 2.00. pm Thursdays • FHS 106: 3.30 – 5.00 pm Thursdays • The next quiz (chapters 3 and 4 plus slides) • Wednesday

2. Your questions

3. Climate Change: Climate change issue and its effects on different kinds of species If this climate change continues – how do you predict Lebanon’s climate will become? Why are humans the only victims of global warming and not the other organisms? Why does global warming have the big effect on earth? Why is everything that is happening the blame of climate change? Why can’t I see the change that is happening in the environment? Why is global warming increasing? To understand the how and why of climate change from country to another? Can we fix climate change? (What is the composition of the atmosphere around us?) (How can we treat ozone depletion?) Lebanon What does ecology suggest [should be] done so that the act of arson (deliberately starting forest fires for the sake of wood) by stopped? Lebanon has always been known of its olives and especially quality of abundance. Why, in these couple of years, has this resource significantly declined, especially in Mount Lebanon area? Why is there no animal diversity in Lebanon? Why aren’t Lebanese politicians benefiting from the natural resources? Why doesn’t Lebanon use its natural resources to provide electricity and sources of energy? Biofuels in the Middle East – would it work? Human Health How is the environment related to human diseases? How are those diseases transmitted to us? Why is ecology essential for pre-med students? Are we adapted to pollution? Energy Methane gas produced by cows. Can it be a solution to our fuel resources? Could we really survive without oil? Pollution • How is pollution related to the damage of our ecosystem and will it be really [?] toward the end of the world very soon? • What are the consequences of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and what are its impacts on the marine species? • We may be able to decrease pollution but would we be able to eliminate it? • The inappropriate use of pesticides which is decreasing the bee population around the world and its effects on our environment • Pesticide effects on marine life • How can soil be treated? • Does the leather industry threaten certain population with extinction? Animals/Communities • What are the side effects for the decrease in the number of species in a certain community? • How could we know the effect of some animals on our life cycle? • What is the effect of experimental mutation that may release a new kind of species? • Learn about extinct species – and how to save them • Evolution of the newest species • In some countries, they are genetically manipulating trees to grow in their countries. What effect might that have? • What are the benefits of mosquitoes? Policy… • Are humans the biggest threat to our ecological system? • How could we have a more beautiful, safe, healthy environment? • How can reserves improve our environment and the preservation of species in different communities? • Why are some countries given the liberty to massacre birds for the sake of crops, ex Turkey? Miscellaneous • What happened to dinosaurs? • How was the beginning of the Earth? • What about volcanoes? • How can we know about earthquakes? • Why is eating pork prohibited in Islam? • Why don’t we eat bugs since they contain high amounts of protein? • Green buildings • What is the dumbest animal? The chicken

4. Your climate change questions – can you answer (some of) them? Already discussed the science of climate change (remember?) Why is global warming increasing? Climate change issue and its effects on different kinds of species Why does global warming have the big effect on earth? If this climate change continues – how do you predict Lebanon’s climate will become? Why are humans the only victims of global warming and not the other organisms? Why is everything that is happening the blame of climate change? Why can’t I see the change that is happening in the environment? To understand the how and why of climate change from country to another? Can we fix climate change? How is the environment related to human diseases? How are those diseases transmitted to us? Why is ecology essential for pre-med students? (What is the composition of the atmosphere around us?) (How can we treat ozone depletion?)

5. Terrestrial Ecosystem Response to Climate Change

6. Global Change and Effects on Terrestrial Ecosystem Introduction • Temperature, precipitation, latitude and altitude all determine distribution of major terrestrial ecosystems (biomes). • Plants found within the different biomes are influenced by soil type, water shed conditions and amount of sun. • Specific combinations of temperatures and precipitation ensure the survival and thriving of plants within a given environment (known as Climate space).

7. Terrestrial Ecosystems are an… • Integral part of global carbon system • Plants take in and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis • Below ground microbes decompose organic matter and release organic carbon back into the atmosphere www.bom.gov.au/.../ change/gallery/9.shtml Cycle shows how nature’s sources of CO2 are self regulating – that which is released will be used again – Anthropogenic carbon not part of natures cycle – is in excess

8. Major Biomes and Their Vegetation • Tundra – no trees, lichens, grasses and shrubs • Taiga (or Boreal Forest) – coniferous evergreens • Temperate forests – include evergreens (spruce), deciduous forests (oaks), mixed forests, and temperate rain forests (sequoias) • Tropical rain forests – greatest amount of diversity in vegetation (vines, orchids, palms) • Grasslands – grasses, prairie clover • Deserts – cacti, small bushes

9. Major Terrestrial Biomes • Geographic distribution of biomes are dependent on temperature, precipitation, altitude and latitude • Weather patterns dictate the type of plants that will dominate an ecosystem faculty.southwest.tn.edu/. ../ES%20%20we16.jpg

10. Million years before present 570 505 438 408 360 286 245 208 144 66 2 10K

11. Global Distribution of Vegetation 18,000 years ago tundra grassland taiga conifers woodland desert Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D. and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12:185-194.

12. Global Distribution of Vegetation 6,000 years ago temperate deciduous cold deciduous taiga tundra conifers desert grassland woods & scrub Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D. and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12:185-194.

13. Global Distribution of Vegetation - Present tundra taiga temperate deciduous cold deciduous warm mix grassland tropical R.F. Prentice, C.I., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly D. and Cheddadi, R., 1996, Reconstructing biomes from palaeoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12:185-194.

14. Shifts in Terrestrial Habitat 18Kya 18 kya ice ice sheet oak spruce • 18,000 years ago Spruce trees and oak trees filled small pockets of habitat – as climates warmed Spruce trees migrated into the Northern Hemispheres and the Oak trees expanded in to Southeastern U.S., Western Europe and Southern Europe • Shifts in vegetation occur slowly tree species were able to successfully expand into favorable regions spruce 9Kya 9 kya ice ice spruce oak Present Present spruce ice spruce oak oak Distribution of spruce and oak forests in Northern Hemisphere since the Last glacial period 18,000 kya

15. tundra PRESENT DAY BIOMES taiga taiga desert temp. decd. forest desert grassland trop. rain forest scrub forest desert temp rain forest

16. Tundra Greenland Alaska N. Europe Siberia Yakutsk Canada Ice land

17. Average annual temperature and precipitation Yakutsk, Russia Location:  62.1 N; 129 W earthobservatory.nasa.gov

18. Boreal Forest (Taiga) Europe Asia Canada S.W. U.S

19. Boreal Forest (Taiga) Average annual temperature and precipitation Beaverlodge, Alberta, Canada 55oN; 119o W earthobservatory.nasa.gov

20. Temperate Forests Four types: 1. deciduous forests 2. evergreen forests 3. mixed deciduous and evergreen 4. temperate rain forests Location:  Eastern United States, Canada, Europe, China, and Japan www.windows.ucar.edu/.../ earth/forest_eco.html

21. Average annual temperature and rainfall Staunton, Virginia, United States 38oN; 79oW earthobservatory.nasa.gov

22. Tropical Forests

23. Tropical Rainforest India S.E. Asia New Guinea Zaire Amazon river basin Queensland Madagascar 3 major geographical areas: 1. America: Amazon river basin 2. Africa: Zaire basin, small area of W. Africa, Eastern portion of Madagascar 3. Asia: West coast of India, Assam, S.E. Asia, New Guinea and Queensland, Australia "Rainforests", http://passporttoknowledge.com/rainforest/GEOsystem/Maps/se_asia.html, (3/18/02)

24. Campa Pita, Belize15 N latitude Tropical Forest Average annual temperature and precipitation earthobservatory.nasa.gov

25. Southeast Asia Tropical Rainforest Monsoons role • SE Asia has a tropical wet climate which is influenced by ocean wind systems originating in the Indian Ocean and China Sea • 2 monsoon seasons: • Northeast monsoons (Oct. – Feb) – bring heavy rains to Eastern side of the islands • Southwest monsoons (April – Aug) – more powerful of the two seasons – brings heavy rainfall to the western side of the islands – Eastern side of islands dry – but windy (due to rain shadow) • Change in monsoon cycle bring heavy consequences • Ex. 1992 – 1993 – logging degraded primary foresting making it vulnerable to fires. A drought brought on by El Nino created devastating fires destroying 27,000 km2 of acreage. • In 1998 the same type of thing happened again when El Nino created a weak monsoon season – destroying many plant and animal species.

26. Grasslands

27. Average annual temperature and rainfall Ingeniera White, Argentina 40oS; 6oW earthobservatory.nasa.gov

28. Deserts

29. Average yearly temperature and rainfall El-Oasr el-Akhdar, Egypt26oS; 30oE earthobservatory.nasa.gov

30. woodland shrub land grassland forest arid Present day grassland forest grassland grassland shrub land woodland Predicted Distribution So … what are the predictions????? • Arid deserts in Southwestern U.S. will shrink as precipitation increases • Savanna/shrub/woodland systems will replace grasslands in the Great Plains • Eastern U.S. – forests will expand northerly – weather conditions will become more severe • Southeastern U.S. – increasing droughts will bring more fires – triggering a rapid change from broadleaf forests to Savannas Climate change p. 104

31. Predicted Change in Biomes Loss of existing habitat that could occur under doubling of CO2 concentration. Shades of red indicate percentage of vegetation models that predicted a change in biome type.

32. Distribution of Sugar Maple in Eastern North America will change due to an increase in temperature and a decrease in moisture shifting further north east. Predictions of Sugar Maple in Eastern NorthAmerica predicted new growth predicted new growth overlap overlap present range present range Prediction based on Prediction based on increased increased temperature temperature and decrease precipitation

33. More Predictions Western Hemlock and Douglas fir found on Western slope • Douglas Fir found in wet coastal mountains of CA and OR will shrink in low lands and be replaced by Western pine species which are more drought tolerant. • Overall Western U.S. climate is predicted to shift to favor more drought tolerant species of pine Wet western slope will shrink and be replaced by pine and oak Eastern slope will become drier and shift to Juniper and Sagebrush

34. Frequency of forest fires will increase, reducing total American boreal forest area.

35. Shifts in Terrestrial Habitat Potential distribution of the major world biomes under current climate conditions • It is predicted that at the end of this century there will be large scale shifts in the global distribution of vegetation in response to anthropogenic climate change. • With man doubling the amount of carbon dioxide entering into the atmosphere the climate is changing more rapidly then plant migration can keep up. Projected distribution of the major world biomes by simulating the effects of 2xCO2-equivalent concentrations www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ seminars/960610SM.html

36. Boreal and Alpine Vegetation Predicted changes in Siberian vegetation in response to doubling of CO2 • Research indicates the greatest amount of change will occur at the higher latitudes • Northern Canada and Alaska are already experiencing rapid warming and reduction of ice cover • Vegetation existing in these areas will be replaced with temperate forest species • Tundra, Taiga and Temperate forests will migrate pole ward • Some plants will face extinction because habitat will become too small (ex. Mountain tops of European Alps) Climate change

37. Grasslands and Shrub Lands • Grassland will change to deserts or shrub lands • Exposing greater amounts of soil • Increasing soil temperature – poor nitrogen content – poor plant growth • Barren soil exposed to winds and transported into atmosphere as dust and trapping IR – leading to more warming • Models of: • Climate change • Plant growth • Soil – water Predict shifts in distribution of major North American prairie grasses over a 40 year period

38. Impacts on Lebanon? • recent studies found that the Arab region experienced an uneven increase in surface air temperature ranging from 0.2 to 2.0ºC that occurred from 1970 to 2004

39. Impact high… climate change impact Semi-arid and arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change If temperature gets higher If precipitation gets lower  pressure on natural and physical systems would be intensified

40. The Arab region will… climate change impact Face an increase of 2 to 5.5 C in surface temperature by 2100 Face a decrease in precipitation from 0 to 20%  shorter winters  dryer and hotter summers  higher rate of heat waves  higher level of weather variability  more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events

41. Impact on freshwater sources climate change impact

42. Status of freshwater here climate change impact Reminder: most of the Arab countries are located in arid and semi-arid regions; low and limited water resources + high evaporation Total water resources = total renewable ground water + internal surface water resources + external surface water resources

43. First order impacts… climate change impact • Mediterranean hydrological systems • Wetter winters • Dryer and hotter summers • Increase in evaporation from water bodies… • Increase Evapotranspiration from crops • Egypt • Increase the potential irrigation demand by 6 to 16% by 2100

44. Drought climate change impact

45. Drought frequency climate change impact • Increased during the last 20 to 40 years in Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Syria • Of the 22 drought years in the 20th century, 10 occurred in the last 20 years, and three were successive (1999, 2000, 2001) in Morocco • Recent droughts in Jordan and Syria worst ever recorded • Varying conditions of water shortage in Lebanon in the last 10 years

46. But not just droughts climate change impact

47. Yemen: recent floods (October 2008) Dubbed the 'Manhatten of the desert', Shibam's 2,000-year-old mud-brick buildings are in danger of collapsing after recent floods climate change impact

48. Observed Changes in Physical and Ecological Systems (from IPCC 2001) hydrology / sea ice animals plants study covers study based on glaciers large area remote sensing

49. Those at Risk • Northern countries (Russia, Sweden, Finland) ½ of existing terrestrial habitats at risk • In Mexico, it’s predicted that 2.4% of species will lose 90% of their range and threatened with extinction by the year 2055 • Population at greatest risk are the rare and isolated species with fragmented habitats or those surrounded by water, agriculture or human development • Polar bears facing extinction by prolonged ice melts in feeding areas along with decline in seal population

50. 35% of worlds existing terrestrial habitat predicted to be altered • Studies found that deforestation in different areas of the globe affects rainfall patterns over a considerable region • Deforestation in the Amazon region of South America (Amazonian) influences rainfall from Mexico to Texas and in the Gulf of Mexico • Deforesting lands in Central Africa affects precipitation in the upper and lower U.S. Midwest www.sciencedaily.com/.../ 09/050918132252.htm