Protection of the Ozone Layer - Montreal Protocol:Themes for 1998 A Presentation Kit UNEP Ozone Secretariat
The Montreal Protocol is Working • Scientific assessment shows that the abundance of ozone-depleting chemicals in the lower atmosphere is declining. • However, abundance of Halons is increasing due to releases from banks. • Production of CFCS and Halons has declined by 86 % in the last ten years. • The ozone depletion in Antarctic, Arctic and mid latitudes is continuing, due to past emissions of CFCs. It will peak in the next few years.
Developing Countries • Ten years ago, the share of the developing countries and the Russian Federation (then USSR) in the total production of CFCs was 15%. In 1996, it is 80%. For Halons it was 7% ten years ago and 100% now.
Ozone Depletion • The ozone depletion in Antarctic, Arctic and mid latitudes is continuing, due to past emissions of CFCs. It will peak in the next few years. • Given full Implementation of the Montreal Protocol by all countries, the Ozone Layer will recover by the middle of the 21st century.
The Multilateral Fund • The Multilateral Fund of the Protocol has been very successful. It has so far disbursed over $ 768 million to more than 100 developing countries to phase out more than half of their CFC consumption. It will continue assistance till the phase out is completed.
CEIT Countries • The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is assisting the Russian Federation and other Eastern and Central Europe countries to implement the Montreal Protocol. • It has so far sanctioned US$ 111 million to 11 countries. • The countries that have been assisted: Belarus, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine. • Consumption of CFCs in these countries has decreased from 150,000 tonnes in 1986 to about 20,000 tonnes in 1996. It is hoped that with the support from GEF, these countries will complete their phase-out by the year 2000.
If there were no Protocol, ..... • The ozone depletion by the year 2050 would have been at least 50% in the mid latitudes in the northern half of the earth, 70% in the mid latitudes of the south, about 10 times larger than today. The UV-B radiation would have doubled in the north and quadrupled in the south in the same places. The ozone depleting chemicals in the atmosphere would have been 5 times larger. • The implications of this increase would have been horrendous - 19 million more cases of non- melanoma cancer, 1.5 million cases of melanoma cancer, 130 million more cases of eye cataracts
Challenges • There are many challenges to be overcome before we celebrate. • Many parties are yet to ratify the Amendments to the Protocol, which included controls on more chemicals. 166 parties ratified the Protocol. Only 123 ratified London Amendment and 80 the Copenhagen Amendment.
Countries that have NOT Ratified the Montreal Protocol (24 Countries) Ratification Status of the Montreal Protocol Angola Cape Verde Djibouti Eritrea Guinea-Bissau Rwanda Sao Tome & Principe Sierra Leone Somalia Equatorial Guinea Albania Armenia Afghanistan Bhutan Cambodia Iraq Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lao (PDR) Oman Palau Haiti Andorra San Marino
Challenges (continued) • Russian Federation and other countries of former USSR are yet to implement their obligations. They promised to do so by the year 2000. • Illegal flow of CFCs to the industrialised countries is of concern. • Potential for spread of Methyl Bromide to more countries and more applications is of concern. Now it is used only in some countries for a small number of crops. • The developing countries, some of whom have increased their consumption so far, as allowed by the Protocol, have to begin their phase out with a freeze from 1 July 1999.
Challenges (continued) • Developing countries are concerned about increasing flow of CFC products, for example, refrigerators, to their countries from countries who have adopted Ozone safe products. This will increase their demand for CFCs for maintenance of these products. • Global warming could increase ozone depletion. Also, HFCs, now used as alternatives for CFCs in some applications, have global warming potential and are controlled by the Kyoto Protocol. The interconnections need to be studied.
Global Warming Potential of some Ozone Depleting Substances and Alternatives
Lessons of the Montreal Protocol • Precautionary principle, signals to industries, integration of science with policy, recognition of the special situation of the developing countries, common but differentiated responsibility, flexibility to take into account scientific and technological developments over time.
Albania Armenia Angola Cape Verde Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Guinea-Bissau Rwanda Sao Tome & Principe Sierra Leone Somalia Haiti Andorra San Marino Afghanistan Bhutan Cambodia Iraq Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Lao (PDR) Oman Palau Countries that have Not Ratified the Montreal Protocol