Agriculture & Food Security Climate Change Training Module

1. Minnesota Climate and Health Program Minnesota Department of Health Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit Agriculture & Food Security Climate Change Training Module 625 Robert Street North PO Box 64975 St. Paul, MN 55164-0975

2. Notice MDH developed this presentation based on scientific research published in peer-reviewed journals. References for information can be found in the relevant slides and/or at the end of the presentation.

3. Outline • Food Security • Observed Climate Changes • Crop Production • Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry • Culturally Important Foods • Other Issues • Adaptation & Best Management Practices

4. Definitions • Food Security: • Food safety • Amount of food “all people at all times have both physical and economic access to access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life” - World Health Organization

5. Minnesota Agriculture • Economic impact of Minnesota’s agriculture: • $75 billion per year in agricultural production and processing • Employment impact: 342,000 jobs • Nationally, Minnesota is top 10 in more than 20 agricultural products: • #1 turkey, sugar beets • #2 hogs, sweet corn for processing, oats, wild rice • #3 soybeans, spring wheat, green peas for processing, dry edible beans • #4 corn, canola, flaxseed • #5 mink pelts • #6 dairy cows, red meat, hay, cheese, honey • #7 milk, potatoes, sunflowers • #9 cattle and calves • #10 lamb • If MN agriculture was disrupted, it could have a great impact on our economy and food security for the U.S. and internationally (Source: Ye, 2013)

6. Food Security and Health • Climate change could affect • Amount of food produced • Variety and nutritional value of food • Cost of food • Minnesotans consume food from a global market; food security is impacted by climate change not just in Minnesota (Source: NCADAC, 2013)

7. Outline • Food Security • Observed Climate Changes • Crop Production • Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry • Culturally Important Foods • Other Issues • Adaptation & Best Management Practices

8. Definitions • Weather – conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time • Climate – conditions of the atmosphere over long periods of time (30- year standard averaging period) (Source: NASA, 2005)

9. Observed Climate Changes • There have been three recent significant observed climate trends in Minnesota: • The average temperature is increasing • The average number of days with a high dew point may be increasing • The character of precipitation is changing (Sources: Seeley, 2012; Zandlo, 2008)

10. Temperature Changes in Minnesota (Sources: Western Regional Climate Center, 2011a; Seeley, 2012)

11. Temperature Changes in Minnesota Significant observations in warming pattern: • Winter temperatures have been rising about twice as fast as annual average temperatures • Minimum or ‘overnight low’ temperatures have been rising faster than maximum or ‘daytime high’ temperatures (Source: Zandlo, 2008)

12. Temperature Changes in Minnesota Seasonal Temperature Trends (°F per century) Based on 1895-2010 Data SPRING: + 1.6° SUMMER: + 0.8° AUTUMN: + 0.5° WINTER: + 2.2° (Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center, 2012)

13. Dew Point Changes • Dew point – a measure of water vapor in the air • A high dew point makes it more difficult for sweat to evaporate off the skin, which is one of the main mechanisms the body uses to cool itself • The number of days with high dew point temperatures (≥ 70°F) may be increasing in Minnesota (Sources: Horstmeyer, 2008; Seeley, 2012)

14. Dew Point Changes Number of Days (Sources: Seeley, 2012; State Climatology Office, 2012)

15. Changes in Precipitation (Source: Western Regional Climate Center, 2011b)

16. Precipitation Changes in Minnesota Seasonal Precipitation Trends (inches per century) Based on 1895-2010 Data SPRING: + 0.7 in SUMMER: + 0.8 in AUTUMN: + 1.2 in WINTER: + 0.3° (Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center, 2012)

17. Changes in Precipitation • Precipitation in Minnesota is changing: • More localized, heavy precipitation events • Potential to cause both increased flooding and drought (Sources: Seeley, 2012; State Climatology Office, 2012c)

18. Outline • Food Security • Observed Climate Changes • Crop Production • Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry • Culturally Important Foods • Other Issues • Adaptation & Best Management Practices

19. Crop production

20. Climate Change Impacts Changing climatic conditions will impact Minnesota crop production in four primary ways: • Long-term changes in average temperatures and precipitation patterns • Increase in pests and invasive species • Acute losses resulting from more frequent and intense weather extremes • Impacts of runoff, soil erosion and reduced infiltration from increased intensity of storm events (Source: Walthall et al, 2012)

21. Complex System Crop production relies on a balance of temperature and precipitation, soil composition, and atmospheric CO2 CO2 (Sources: USDA Global Change Task Force, 2010; Walthall et al, 2012)

22. Longer Growing Season Earlier Minnesota spring = longer growing season • Midwest growing season lengthened by almost two weeks since 1950, due in large part to earlier timing of the last spring freeze • Earlier pollination • Longer growing season may increase crop production • Species’ distributions have shifted Earlier spring thaw + 2 weeks = Growing season Growing season (Sources: NCADAC, 2013; CCSP, 2008)

23. Changing Plant Hardiness Zones Climate change has not only brought Minnesota a longer growing season but also changes in the types of plants that will thrive here (Source: National Wildlife Federation, 2010)

24. Effects of Frost Days Increase number of frost-free days and reduced “winter chill hours” • Many crops require minimum number of days near freezing to keep plants dormant during winter In warmer winters crops bud or bloom earlier • Pro: Longer growing season and potentially larger harvest • Con: Increased risk of damage from late spring frost (e.g., Minnesota apples and Michigan cherries in 2012) (Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012; California Climate and Agricultural Network, 2011)

25. Pests, Diseases and Weeds • With warmer temperatures in Minnesota, pests, diseases and weeds may: • Expand northward into climate-stressed areas • Survive warming winters better • Require increased use of pesticides and herbicides (Sources: Beddow, Pardeyand Seeley, 2012; Walthall et al, 2012; NCADAC, 2013)

26. Warmer Summers Warmer Minnesota summers and Higher maximum temperatures may • Increase crop yields with some warming • Decrease crop yields with too much warming (Sources: Oxfam Issue Briefing, 2012; Walthall et al, 2012; Seeley, 2008)

27. Warmer Nights & Minimum Temps Warmer Minnesota nights and higher minimum temperatures may • Stress some plants, taxing their ability to grow and resulting in lower yields • Cause some plants, such as tomatoes, to ripen faster • Disturb pollination and lower crop productivity and reduce quality (Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Hanks, 2013; NCADAC, 2013)

28. Nutritional Value Globally, the nutritional value of some foods may change due to • Elevated atmospheric CO2(increased carbohydrates, decreased protein & vitamins) • Changes in cultivated varieties (favor yield over nutrient content) (Sources: Davis, Epp and Riordan, 2004; Taub, Miller and Allen, 2008; NCADAC, 2013)

29. Temperature Effects on Water Demand Complex interactions of temperature and precipitation Effects of Increased Evapotranspiration in Three Scenarios Increased Temperature Increased Evapo-transpiration and Crop Water Demand/Use Existing Amounts of Precipitation Inadequate Water Increased Precipitation Healthy Crop Growth Increased CO2 Potentially Healthy Crop Growth (Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Reich, 2012; NCADAC, 2013)

30. Flood and Drought Precipitation variability can cause drought • Localized, heavy storms can result in inadequate precipitation in some regions of the state • Impacts crop yields • Prolonged droughts can increase fire danger 2007 Declared Disasters: X= Drought X = Flood (Sources: Seeley, 2012; CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and AWWA, 2010; IDWG on Climate Change, 2008)

31. Drought “Crop Production Down in 2012 Due to Drought, USDA Reports” (Sources: NOAA, 2012; USDA NASS, 2013)

32. Precipitation Effects: Flooding Increased precipitation in Minnesota has been driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls, resulting in: • Flooded fields and damaged crops • Increased runoff and reduced infiltration of water for crop use • Increased soil erosion, leading to • Soil nutrient loss • Sediment contamination of nearby water bodies Source: Farm Industry News May 24, 2012 (Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012)

33. Runoff and Erosion Runoff and erosion will be affected most by • High rainfall intensity • Soil quality • Low crop cover in spring and fall • Land use Source: MPR News photos of the week, June 15, 2012 (Photo courtesy of Pat Baskfield ) (Sources: Nearing et al, 2005, Sinha and Cherkauer, 2010)

34. Outline • Food Security • Observed Climate Changes • Crop Production • Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry • Culturally Important Foods • Other Issues • Adaptation & Best Management Practices

35. Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry

36. Climate Change Impacts Changing climatic conditions affect animal agriculture in four primary ways: • Feed-grain production, availability, and price • Pastures and forage crop production and quality • Animal health, growth, and reproduction • Disease and pest distributions (Source: NCADAC, 2013)

37. Animal Health • Animal health is highly susceptible to temperature: • Heat stress negatively affects cattle, swine and poultry health • Warmer winters may reduce mortality but will likely be offset by greater mortality in hotter summers  (Source: NCADAC, 2013)

38. Animal Growth & Reproduction • Hotter temperatures may reduce productivity of livestock and dairy animals • Animals lose appetite, gain weight slower and take longer to get to market • Production decreases, including milk from dairy cattle and eggs from poultry • Reproduction decreases resulting in smaller herds (Source: CCSP, 2008)

39. Disease and Pest Distributions • Climate change may affect • Frequency, intensity, or distribution of animal diseases and pests • Livestock’s resistance to infections and diseases (Source: Walthall, 2012)

40. Outline • Food Security • Observed Climate Changes • Crop Production • Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry • Culturally Important Foods • Other Issues • Adaptation & Best Management Practices

41. Culturally Important foods in Minnesota

42. Culturally Important Foods • Climate change will affect the availability and affordability of social and cultural foods • Mental health effects • Physical health effects • Shortages of culturally important foods for tribal community members in Minnesota • Natural wild Rice • Moose • Traditional, cold-water fish (Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; NCADAC, 2013)

43. Wild Rice • Greatest long-term threat to natural wild rice is climate change • Negative effects on wild rice: • Hot & dry conditions • Warmer winters • Warm, humid conditions • Severe weather: • 2012 Northeast flood Map of Wild Rice Locations Source: MN DNR (Sources: DNR, 2008; Myers, 2012)

44. Moose • Moose are a critical component of the cultural identity northern Minnesota, cultural food source • Decline in Minnesota moose population • Causes of mortality are likely health- and stress-related factors • Warming climate is a contributing factor in high mortality Source: MN DNR (Sources: DNR, 2011; DNR, 2013; Orrick, 2013;

45. Fish: Warmer Water Conceptual diagram of climate warming effects on Minnesota fish communities • In Minnesota, climate change is warming waters • Warming waters stress native fish populations and may favor invasive species Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; Peter Jacobson, DNR Fisheries Research Supervisor

46. Fish: Water Quality Impacts • Climate change may lower water levels • Which affects concentration of contaminants in the water, the concentration of toxic chemicals in fish and quantity of fish Walleye, StarTribune, April 15, 2013 • Warmer waters and rainfall intensity may be contributing to an increase in mercury concentrations in fish (27) (Sources: CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and AWWA, 2010; Monson, 2009)

47. Outline • Food Security • Observed Climate Changes • Crop Production • Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry • Culturally Important Foods • Other Issues • Adaptation & Best Management Practices

48. Other issues

49. Food Prices • Food prices may rise if • Production declines • Prices of inputs increase (such as, petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides) • Food insecurity increases with rising food prices (IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; NCADAC, 2013)

50. Food System Delivery Climate change impact on food system delivery: • Damage to transport and distribution infrastructure from extreme weather events • Barging/shipping: low water levels in Mississippi and Lake Superior (Source: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008) Image source: Pete Markham