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The 4 th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 21-24 Feb , 2011

The 4 th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 21-24 Feb , 2011. On the Review of the Work Development and Future Plan for Tropical Meteorology Research. Yihong DUAN WGTMR. Contents. Activities Projects and publications Plan for next two years.

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The 4 th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 21-24 Feb , 2011

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  1. The 4th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 21-24 Feb , 2011 On the Review of the Work Development and Future Plan for Tropical Meteorology Research Yihong DUAN WGTMR

  2. Contents • Activities • Projects and publications • Plan for next two years

  3. Activities: Workshops and conferences • The 2nd International workshop on TC landfall Processes (IWTCLP-Ⅱ) • The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology • The 7th International workshop on Tropical cyclone (IWTC-VII)

  4. The 2nd International workshop on TC landfall Processes (IWTCLP-Ⅱ) • Co-sponsors • TMR, TCP, STI/CMA, 973 Project of MOST/China, NSF/China • Scientific Objective to get better understanding of tropical cyclone landfalling processes and its mechanism and to improve landfall forecasting technique.

  5. IWTCLP-Ⅱ(Cont’d) • Meeting Size • 82 Participants (researchers and forecasters) from 17 Countries and regions where affected by TC Landfall. • Venue and Time • Shanghai, China in 19-23 Oct, 2009 • Meeting Co-Chair • Lianshou Chen • Russell Elsberry

  6. IWTCLP-Ⅱ(Cont’d) Meeting Topics: • Observations and Field Program • Track, Structure and Intensity Changes Near the Coast • Topographic and Land Surface Effect , Especially on Rainfall • Physical Processes and Energy Transfers During the ET Process • High Impact Weather Events • Forecast Techniques and Early Warning Systems for TC Landfall

  7. Photo for the opening ceremony of IWTCLP II in Shanghai, China

  8. Brief summary of IWTCLP II • 65 papers related to landfall tropical cyclone rainfall, structure and intensity change, and terrain effect on tropical cyclone rainfall and P-PARC/TCS-08 were presented over the plenary meeting, • The “Typhoon Landfalling Forecast Demonstration Project” was proposed. It aims to improve the typhoon forecast capabilities and to give better service towards Shanghai EXPO 2010. Finally, it was endorsed by WMO/CAS-15, in Korea in 2009.

  9. The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology • Co-sponsors • TMR, FVR, TCP, NUIST, MOST and NSF/China • Scientific Objectives • To improve the understanding and forecast techniques of QPE/QPF and hydrological prediction with an emphasis on rainfall caused by tropical cyclones and monsoons • To bring the forecasters and researchers together to review the progress of research and forecast, to discuss and exchange research achievements and operational forecast needs

  10. The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Cont’d) • Meeting Size • 101 Participants (researchers and forecasters) from 22 Countries and Regions • Venue and Time • Nanjing, China from 18-22 Oct, 2010 • Meeting Co-Chairs • Lianshou Chen (CAMS/CMA,CHINA) • Barbara Brown (NCAR,USA) • Yihong Duan (NMC/CMA,CHINA) • Chungu Lu (NSF, USA)

  11. The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Cont’d) Meeting Topics • High impact precipitation events, related to tropical Cyclones, monsoons and severe storms; • QPE and remote sensing observations; • Hydrologic prediction and coupled hydrology-atmosphere-land models; • Verification of QPF • Data assimilation for precipitation forecasting system; • Precipitation variability and climate change; • QPF

  12. The 7th International workshop on Tropical cyclone (IWTC-VII) • Cosponsors • TMR, TCP, Meteo France • Scientific Objective • to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on tropical cyclones from an integrated global perspective and to report on these aspects and • to offer recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different regions.

  13. IWTC-VII (Cont’d) • Meeting Size • 128 Participants from 42 TC affected countries and regions • Meeting venue and Time • San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; 15-20 Nov, 2010 • Meeting Chairs • Chris Velden (U. of Wisconsin, USA) • Jeff Kepert (BOM, Australia)

  14. Groupe Photo for all IWTC-VII participants San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; 15-20 Nov, 2010

  15. IWTC-VII (Cont’d) • MAJOR TOPICS: • Structure and Intensity Change, • Formation and Extra-tropical Transition, • TCs in Intraseasonal to Climate Time Scales, • Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning Systems, Societal Impacts • KEYNOTE LECTURES • Surface Wind Structure and the Related Pressure- Wind Relationship • Probabilistic Forecasting and Applications for User Risk Assessment • QPE/QPF and Related Inland Flood Modeling/Applications

  16. IWTC-VII (Cont’d) • SPECIAL FOCUS PRESENTATIONS • Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting • Ocean Field Experiments (ITOP) and New Research Findings • THORPEX/TIGGE Applications to Tropical Cyclone Motion and Forecasting • IBTrACS Activities and Updates • Overview and Operational Products Expected from HFIP • Application of the Dvorak Technique and Resolving Interagency Intensity Differences • PANEL DISCUSSION • Future Research Directions for Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

  17. Some accomplishments from IWTC VII • 59 recommendations, included 12 high priority recommendations for future WMO activities, forecaster needs, and research opportunities. • A new summary statement of Tropical cyclone and climate change was issued for WMO and NMHSs use during the workshop • IWTC VII final report will be on the WWRP website in Feb 2011.

  18. Monsoon Data Centers Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets (Colorado State University-CSU, Prof. Richard Johnson) Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia (East Asia Monsoon Activity Center - EAMAC Dr. Song Lianchun) Monsoon Radar Meteorology Data Information Center (Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center/Nagoya University Japan, Prof. Hiroshi Uyeda)

  19. Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets • The project website is at http://johnson.atmos.colostate.edu/wwrp_monsoon/. • the following field campaigns are included on this website: ATEX, BOMEX, GATE, WMONEX, ASTEX, TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, SALLJEX, NAME, NAMMA, and TiMREX • The upper-air sounding datasets for TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, NAME and TiMREX have undergone numerous checks and corrections to enhance their quality.

  20. Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia( CEEMA) • In 2010 the Center for Extreme (Weather and Climate) Events Monitoring in Asia (CEEMA) was established by the East Asian Monsoon Activity Center • A website for CEEMA has been established at http://bcc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=28&show_product=1 • An initial Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Weather and Climate Events (OITREE) has been developed and applied in China.

  21. Frequency variations of drought events during 1957-2009 in China based on the OITREE method the affected area with intensity distribution of the 2009/2010 Southwest China drought event based on the OITREE method

  22. WGTMR Relevant Field Program • T-PARC/TCS 08 • ITOP/TCS 10 • YOTC • SWICE • PREDICT • GRIP • IFEX • HFIP • CEATIC • Western North Pacific • Ditto • Ditto • South Indian Ocean • North Atlantic • North Atlantic • North Atlantic • North Atlantic • East and South China Sea

  23. China Experiment on Abnormal Typhoon In Coastal Area (CEATIC) • Intense observation area • Intense observation area

  24. Wind profiler Wind profiler with RUSS Wind profiler Microwave radiometer Raindrops spectrometer CEATIC Wind tower Buoy station GPS Sounding

  25. CEATIC Target TC in 2009

  26. Wind profile for TC Molave 2009

  27. Buoy station Observation for TC Molave 2009 Max. SST decrease 6℃ Effective wave heights Effective wave high cycle Wind pressure

  28. Projects and Publications • Progress of FDP/RDP Project • Publications

  29. WWRP/TCP Typhoon LandfallForecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) • Objective • To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced • forecasting techniques for landfalling typhoons. • Action Taken • Training Workshop organized in May 2010 (Shanghai) • Real-time collection/display systems of forecast products • developed • Real time verification system set-up • Planned Action • To open the project website (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn) • To provide real-time products to all TC Members • To develop a total verification system Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

  30. Progresses of TLFDP • Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast, 24-28 May, Shanghai 11 lecturers from 9 institutions Trainees: 20 forecasters from meteorological bureaus of East China Region

  31. List of forecast products collected in real time and the way of collection Yellow: GTS. Red: FTP. Green: FTP + CMA Intranet. Blue: CMA Intranet. Courtesy of Dr Hui YU

  32. Real time verification system(Track forecast verificaiton) Courtesy of Dr Hui YU

  33. Real time verification system(Intensity forecast verificaiton) Courtesy of Dr Hui YU

  34. WWRP/TCP NW-Pacific TC Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project (THORPEX-Asia) • Objective • To examine the utility of ensemble forecasts for the operational typhoon forecasting. • Action Taken • Website was established at JMA/MRI • ID&PW provided to Typhoon Committee Members • First improvement made to the Website • Planned Action • Training for better utilization of the products • Survey of the utility and further improvement of the products Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

  35. Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

  36. Publications • Meeting report of the IWM-IV held in Beijing October 20-25, 2008 in title of “BRIDGING WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN RESEARCH AND FORECAST OF GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM” will be published by BAMS in March 2011 • “Tropical cyclone and Climate Change”, published in NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Feb 2010, Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones • A book of 《Global Perspectives on tropical cyclone: From Science to Mitigation》 (From IWTC VI Edited by Johnny Chan, The Meeting Chair, published in 2010) • A book of 《The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast》，2nd Edition (From IWM-IV, Edited by C.P. Chang, the Meeting Chair; will be published soon)

  37. Preprint of Workshop and Conference

  38. Other support to WMO NHMs • A web version of “ A Global Tropical Cyclone Forecast Guide” is nearing completion • A WMO website has been established for seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity

  39. Plan for next two years (2011-2012) • Implementation of Typhoon Landfall FDP (with TCP) • Implementation of NW Pacific Ensemble Forecast Project (with TCP, THORPEX) • TMR WG meeting (Oct 2011, China) • Workshop on Monsoon Heavy Rainfall RDP (Oct 2011, China) • Monsoon Training Workshop on Heavy Precipitation (Oct 2011, China) • IWM-V (2012, Malaysia) • International Workshop on Dvorak Technique (with TCP, Apr 2011, Honolulu, US)

  40. Thank you for your attention

  41. CAS Strategic Thrust II • to advance scientific research and application as well as development and implementation of technology, and specifically: • II.3 -- Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs to produce better predictions and warnings; • II.4 --Enhanced capabilities to use weather observations; and • II.5 -- Enhanced capabilities to draw benefits from the global research capacity.

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