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The effects of ICT investment on productivity in Spain. Prepared for the NEREC conference on Electronic Communications . Madrid, 11 September 2009. Introduction. Motivation. Crisis and competitiveness Public policy sometimes in opposite directions.
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The effects of ICT investment on productivity in Spain Prepared for the NEREC conference on Electronic Communications Madrid, 11 September 2009
Introduction Motivation • Crisis and competitiveness • Public policy sometimes in opposite directions • What is the total effect of ICT capital on productivity? The issue
The economic framework Logs, increments and CRS Contribution to LP Contribution to VAG Perfect competition in input and output markets
Spillovers in production Indirect effect of ICT through its impact TFP Notwithstanding Stiroh (2002)
Earlier studies in Spain • Several studies measuring the relationship between ICT, output growth and productivity • Most of them use the GAF approach: • Positive contribution to output and labour productivity growth • Mixed evidence on the contribution to TFP • Some econometric studies: • Positive effect on TFP of the stock of technological capital
Empirical analysis • Results • Conclusions
The relationship between ICT and TFP A first look • TFP reached its max value in 1984 and performed very poorly after 1989 • No clear relationship between TFP and ICT capital growth • TFP and ICT capital growth present similar movements before 1995 • But, no apparent relationship afterwards … the relationship (if any) between ICT capital growth and TFP seems to differ before and after 1995
Specification Preferred specification controls for ICT capital growth Non-ICT capital growth R&D effort Consider different impact before and after 1995 OLS and alternative estimates (FE, IV) spillover Other relevant factors TFPit = ait + ICTICTit + NICTNICTit + kXitk + it
Results Positive and significant effect Positive and significant effect * Significant at 10% level, ** significant at 5% level and *** significant at 1% level Negative spillover
Conclusions Our analysis has limitations • More attention to dynamics • Separate impact of different ICT components • Account for the role of other potentially relevant factors • Regulations • International technological spillovers • Degree of competition Summary • Does ICT exerts a spillover on TFP? • We find a positive relationship between TFP and ICT capital growth, at least, up to 1995 • Absence of spillover or a positive impact is still to come • Results confirm the importance of R&D in the evolution of TFP
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