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Jerrold Oppenheim DRAFT New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable 110 Boston April 3, 2009

Pursuing Sustainable Energy in New England: the Promise of Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective. Jerrold Oppenheim DRAFT New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable 110 Boston April 3, 2009. “America sees 18% of Wealth Vanish”.

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Jerrold Oppenheim DRAFT New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable 110 Boston April 3, 2009

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  1. Pursuing Sustainable Energy in New England: the Promise of Stimulus Funds and the Reality of Recession – a Low-Income Perspective Jerrold Oppenheim DRAFT New England Electricity Restructuring Roundtable 110 Boston April 3, 2009

  2. “America sees 18% of Wealth Vanish” www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  3. Only top 20% had significant income increases www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  4. New England CBPP www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  5. Unemployment 8.1%>10% in CA, MI, NV, NC, OR, RI, SC January 2009 (US: 7.6%) www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  6. LIHEAP DHCD www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  7. Regional differences http://www.creditslips.org/photos/uncategorized/2008/04/15/bankruptcyfilingratemapapr2008small.jpg www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  8. . www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  9. Other Headline Impacts of The Great Recession • Millionaire Population Falls The numbers are in: Millionaires are getting clobbered by the financial crisis. … the latest survey from Spectrem Group showed that the number of U.S. millionaires fell 27% last year. wsj.com/marketbeat March 14, 2009 • Citigroup Climbs to $1.78 / Bank's Stock Solidly Over $1 Apiece After Nearly Closing Under It Recently wsj.com/Large Stock Focus March 14, 2009 www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  10. RATE INCREASES • T&D • Generation • Natural Gas commodity • Financing • Carbon management www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  11. Investment Including Smart Grid (2010-2030) $581.5 600 400 $297.8 Billions of Dollars (Nominal) $184.4 200 $113.4 0 Transmission Distribution ? 230 kV < 230 kV Transmission and Distribution Source: Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge, The Brattle Group, November 2008 EEI

  12. Value of reliability Estimated Cost-per-Outage-per-Customer (U.S.)1 Duration Residential Commercial Industrial 0 sec $2.18 $605 $1,893 1 hour $2.70 $886 $3,253 Sustained Interruption $2.99 $1,067 $4,227 1 Costs shown in U.S. 2002 CPI-weighted dollars Source: Kristina HamachiLaCommare and Joseph H. Eto ,Understanding the Cost of Power Interruptions to U.S. Electricity Consumers (LBL, 2004), Table 10, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMP/EMP-pubs.html www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  13. Generation Frank Graves, The Brattle Group, at The Santa Fe Conference 2009 www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  14. Natural Gas Futures Synapse Energy Economics www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  15. EIA Gas Forecasts Synapse Energy Economics www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  16. Financing costs (EEI) www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  17. Impact is not uniform DOE www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  18. Carbon www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  19. Range of Potential Impacts From Climate Legislation (EEI) • Cost per household $446 - $2927 in 2020 / year • Electricity prices 21% - 35% in 2020 • Natural gas prices 20% - 39% in 2020 • GDP 0.7% - 1.74% (~ $336B out of $~19.2T GDP) • Employment 1.1 - 2.78 million in 2020 • Coal consumption 42% - 66% in 2020 • Permit prices ($ / ton CO2 equivalent) $18 - $48 / ton in 2020 • Total US GHG emission (mmtCO2-equivalent) 4887 – 6654 in 2030 (“Business As Usual” 9672 in 2030)

  20. CO2 World Resources Institute www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  21. CO2 D. Burtraw et al., RFF, Sep. 2008 www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  22. New England www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  23. Cap and Trade rebates? www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  24. Consumers www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  25. ENERGY BURDEN www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  26. CONTROLLING LOW-INCOME BILLS • Stimulus • Efficiency • Demand management? • LIHEAP • Arrearage management • Low-income rates www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  27. Stimulus • Energy efficiency / Renewables • Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Programs - $16.8 Billion • Renewable energy project / transmission loan guarantees - $6 Billion • Federal building efficiency - $4.5 Billion • Weatherization - $5 Billion • State block grants for energy projects - $6.3 Billion • Transmission • Federal loans for transmission (WAPA and BPA) - $6.5 Billion • Electric transmission loan guarantees - $2 Billion • Smart Grid - $4.5 Billion Smart Appliances - $300 Million • PHEV • Fuel efficient vehicles - $300 Million States, $300 Million Fed • PHEV charging infrastructure - $400 Million • Advanced battery manufacturing - $2 Billion • Carbon Capture and Storage - $3.4 Billion www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  28. Efficiency www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  29. WAP WAPTAC www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  30. New England www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  31. Massachusetts www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  32. Demand management www.gridpoint.com/curve/overview/ www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  33. LIHEAP LIHEAP Clearinghouse www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  34. Renewables Cocoa bean shells (PSNH-Lindt experiment At Schiller Station, Portsmouth) www.DemocracyAndRegulation.com

  35. . www. DemocracyAndRegulation.com +1-978-283-0897 JerroldOpp@ DemocracyAndRegulation.com Theo MacGregor & Jerrold Oppenheim DemocracyAndRegulation.com 35

  36. About theSpeaker Jerrold Oppenheim is an independent consultant and attorney who has advised and represented low-income and other utility consumer advocates, government agencies, labor, and utilities across the country for more than 35 years. A graduate of Harvard College and Boston College Law School, he led utility litigation and argued precedent-setting cases for four Attorneys General in New York State and Massachusetts; for Legal Services in Boston, Chicago and New York City; and for the National Consumer Law Center. He is a member of the Center for Public Utilities Advisory Council, New Mexico State University, andhas spoken and published on four continents, including Democracy And Regulation with Theo MacGregor and Greg Palast, published by Pluto Press (London) and winner of the ACLU Upton Sinclair Award. DemocracyAndRegulation.com

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