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Changing Consumption Patterns of Cereals and Starch-Based Staples in Global Diets

This report examines the shifting dietary patterns concerning cereals, roots, tubers, bananas, and plantains (CRBP) during the joint meeting of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and Rice in February 2004. It discusses changes in global consumption, the importance of these staples in daily diets, and the driving forces behind these changes, including urbanization, income growth, and preference shifts. It also highlights the decline in CRBP shares in both developed and developing countries and raises policy implications for future food security and dietary diversity.

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Changing Consumption Patterns of Cereals and Starch-Based Staples in Global Diets

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  1. Cereals and Other Starch Based Staples: are consumption patterns changing? Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Grains and the 41st Session of the Intergovernmental Group on Rice Rome 10-11 February 2004 CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.5

  2. O U T L I N E • Introduction, Data and Methods • Changes in dietary structures • Importance of Cereals, Roots and Tubers, Bananas and Plantains (CRBP) in daily diets • Convergence and diversification in global CRBP consumption patterns • The main forces driving change • Policy Implications

  3. Comparison of Dietary Structures in Developed …

  4. ... and Developing Countries - Structures diverse, but for both groups strong growth in oils and livestock products …however, CRBP foods in decline

  5. Variation in Dietary Patterns - Consumption patterns in South and East Asian countries most variable. Least variable in developed countries – saturation?

  6. Relationship Between Dietary Shares and Total Calorie Intake - A 1% increase in calorie intake results in falls in dietary shares of CRBP (-0.74%) and pulses (-0.55)

  7. Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developing Countries - Since the 1970s CRBP shares in developing countries have fallen rapidly…

  8. Calorie Intake & Dietary Shares of CRBP staples in Developed Countries - …but remain well above developed country shareswhich have stabilized

  9. Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 5% or more - CRBP staples remain important food security crops, especially Africa

  10. Declines in Total Dietary Shares of CRBP Foods: 10% or more Have dietary shares of all CRBP products fallen?

  11. Increases in Wheat Shares: 5% or more (1961-2001) Wheat consumption has increased in many developing countries

  12. Increases in Rice Shares: 5% or more (1961-2001) Growth in rice consumption less pronounced and more regionally concentrated, esp. West Africa, Latin America, SE Asia

  13. CRBP Structures: 1961/63 In the past, structures dominated by single CRBP foodstuffs – 6 distinct structures identified

  14. CRBP Structures : 1999/2001 Now, structures diversified: dominated by wheat and rice. Evidence of convergence: 4 distinct structures identified. Handful of countries unchanged since 1961

  15. Factors Driving CRBP Patterns • URBANIZATION  • INCOME  • IMPORTS x • PREFERENCE SHIFTS () • RELATIVE PRICES ??

  16. POLICY IMPLICATIONS • According to UN estimates, the world’s urban population is expected to increase by 70 percent over the next three decades:  Promote production of wheat and rice or accept increasing reliance on imports?  Promote processing of those CRBP products that have witnessed falling demand?

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