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Congressional Agenda and Election Preview: Key Issues and Toss-Up States for 2012

As the 2012 Presidential election approaches, critical congressional issues await resolution, including the Export-Import Bank Reauthorization, National Flood Insurance Program, and more. Key Senate races and toss-up states like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia will significantly influence electoral outcomes. President Obama must secure states where he performed well in 2008, with 85 electoral votes up for grabs. With multiple Senate seats in play, the stakes are high for both parties. This overview provides essential insights into the election dynamics and key legislative deadlines.

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Congressional Agenda and Election Preview: Key Issues and Toss-Up States for 2012

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  1. Election & Issues Preview June, 2012

  2. Satisfaction with Size & Power/ Influence of Federal Government and Major Corporations

  3. Congressional Agenda Must-Dos: • Export-Import Bank Reauthorization (H.R. 2072) – expires May 31st • National Flood Insurance Program – expires May 31st • Highway Bill Reauthorization (H.R. 4348) – expires June 30th • FDA User Fees [PDUFA/MDUFA] (H.R. 5651) – expires September 30th • FY2013 Appropriations bills need to be passed by September 30th • National Defense Authorization Act for FY2013 (H.R. 4310) May-Dos: • Cyber Security (H.R. 3523) passed House on April 26th by a vote of 248-168 • McCain vs. Lieberman-Collins competing bills in the Senate • Violence Against Women Reauthorization (H.R. 4970) • S. 1925 passed the Senate on April 26th by a vote of 68-31 • Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status for Russia

  4. Swing States for Presidential Election • Illinois • The election will be decided mainly in seven states with 85 toss-up electoral votes • (All seven states are states that Obama won in 2008)

  5. Electoral Votes (270 to win) OBAMA – 217 needs 53 to win (185 solid / 32 lean) ROMNEY – 206 needs 64 to win (158 solid / 48 lean) TOSS UP – 115 (9 tossup states) • Colorado (9 votes) • Florida (29 votes) • Iowa (6 votes) • New Hampshire (4 votes) • Nevada (6 votes) • Ohio (18 votes) • Pennsylvania (20 votes) • Virginia (13 votes) • Wisconsin (10 votes) Arizona (11 votes) Indiana (11 votes) Missouri (10 votes) North Carolina (15 votes) Nebraska (2nd district = 1 vote) Maine(2nddistrict = 1 vote) Michigan (16 votes) New Mexico (5 votes) Minnesota (10 votes) Maine and Nebraska give two electoral votes to the statewide winner and allocate the rest by congressional district.

  6. Obama can win in 2012 by holding the states where he outperformed his 2008 national average

  7. Senate Seats in Play • Connecticut(Joe Lieberman, retiring) • Florida(Bill Nelson) • Hawaii(Daniel Akaka, retiring) • Indiana(Richard Lugar; lost primary) • Massachusetts(Scott Brown) • Maine(Olympia Snowe, retiring) • Missouri(Claire McCaskill) • Montana(Jon Tester) • NorthDakota(Kent Conrad, retiring) • Nebraska(Ben Nelson, retiring) • NewMexico(Jeff Bingaman, retiring) • Nevada(Dean Heller) • Ohio(Sherrod Brown) • Pennsylvania(Bob Casey) • Texas(Kay Bailey Hutcheson, retiring) • Utah(Orrin Hatch) • Virginia(Jim Webb) • Wisconsin(Herb Kohl) • WestVirginia(Joe Manchin)

  8. Senate Seats in Play Toss Ups Safe/Likely R Safe/Likely D Connecticut(Joe Lieberman, retiring) Florida(Bill Nelson) •  Hawaii(Daniel Akaka, retiring)  Indiana(Richard Lugar; lost primary) Massachusetts(Scott Brown) Maine(Olympia Snowe, retiring) Missouri(Claire McCaskill) Montana(Jon Tester)  NorthDakota(Kent Conrad, retiring)  Nebraska(Ben Nelson, retiring) NewMexico(Jeff Bingaman, retiring) Nevada(Dean Heller) •  Ohio(Sherrod Brown) •  Pennsylvania(Bob Casey)  Texas(Kay Bailey Hutcheson, retiring)  Utah(Orrin Hatch) Virginia(Jim Webb) Wisconsin(Herb Kohl) WestVirginia(Joe Manchin) (The election information contained in this presentation is compiled from various sources with expertise in national elections.)

  9. Senate Seats in Play Toss Ups Leans D Leans R • Connecticut(Joe Lieberman, retiring) • Florida(Bill Nelson) • Massachusetts (Scott Brown) • Maine (Olympia Snowe, retiring) • Missouri (Claire McCaskill) • Montana (Jon Tester) • New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman, retiring) • Nevada (Dean Heller) • Virginia (Jim Webb) • Wisconsin(Herb Kohl)

  10. Open House Seats • 17 Open Republican Seats • Jeff Flake (AZ-05, running for Senate) • Wally Herger (CA-01, retiring) • Jerry Lewis (CA-08, retiring) • Elton Gallegly (CA-26, retiring) • Connie Mack (FL-19, running for Senate) • Tim Johnson (IL-13, retiring) • Dan Burton (IN-05, retiring) • Mike Pence (IN-06, running for governor) • Geoff Davis (KY-04, retiring) • Thad McCotter(MI-11, retiring) • Todd Akin (MO-02, running for Senate) • Denny Rehberg(MT-AL, running for Senate) • Sue Myrick (NC-09, retiring) • Rick Berg (ND-AL, running for Senate) • Jean Schmidt (OH-02, lost primary) • Todd Platts (PA-04, retiring) • Ron Paul (TX-14, retiring) • 21 Open Democratic Seats • Mike Ross (AR-04, retiring) • Lynn Woolsey (CA-02, retiring) • Bob Filner (CA-51, running for mayor) • Chris Murphy (CT-05, running for Senate) • MazieHirono(HI-02, running for Senate) • Jarry Costello (IL-12, retiring) • Joe Donnelly (IN-02, running for Senate) • Barney Frank (MA-04, retiring) • Dale Kildee (MI-05, retiring) • Shelley Berkley (NV-01, running for Senate) • Martin Heinrich (NM-01, running for Senate) • Gary Ackerman (NY-06, retiring) • Edolphus Towns (NY-08, retiring) • Heath Shuler (NC-11, retiring) • Brad Miller (NC-13, retiring) • Dan Boren (OK-02, retiring) • Tim Holden (PA-17, lost primary) • Silvestre Reyes (TX-16, lost primary) • Charlie Gonzalez (TX-20, retiring) • Norm Dicks (WA-06, retiring) • Tammy Baldwin (WI-02, running for Senate)

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