The Crisis of Authority in the Muslim Middle East

1. The Crisis of Authority in the Muslim Middle East POLS 168 – Politics of the Middle East and North Africa – Fall 2008

2. A Violent Region • Violence in Iraq • Violence in Gaza • Violence in Lebanon • What unites these crises? • Iran? • The United States?

3. The Crisis of Authority • It is not one actor or even one issue that unites these violent situations with other, less violent, political struggles in the Middle East. • What unites these situations is a crisis of authority in the Muslim Middle East.

4. What is the Crisis? • How and to what extent will Islam define political identity in the Middle East? • The details differ from place to place, but this is the organizing theme of regional politics.

5. It Can Be Violent Golden Mosque, Samarra, Iraq before and after Feb. 22, 2006 attack

6. It Can Be Peaceful Voters in the Turkish parliamentary election, August 2007

7. The crisis of authority is region-wide Iraqi violence

8. Palestinian violence

9. Lebanese violence

10. The crisis is the core of the al-Qaeda challenge to Middle East regimes.

11. But it is not only violent Turkish election of 2007: AK Party victory

12. Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood wins 88 seats in parliament -- 2005

13. Hamas wins the 2006 Palestinian elections

14. Sunni and Shi’i Islamist parties dominate the Iraqi elections of 2005

15. It is not simply “Islamists” vs. “secularists” The Islamists are divided by sect (Sunni and Shi’a) – sectarian tensions and fighting in Iraq, Lebanon.

16. The Islamists are divided by strategy: violence of al-Qaeda, electoral politics of Turkish AK Party, mixed strategies elsewhere

17. The “secularists” Secularists are not really secular – they do not believe in a separation of mosque and state.

18. The “secularists” But they are not in favor of the complete Islamization of politics, as their Islamist opponents advocate.

19. The “secularists” The secularists are divided themselves: authoritarian leaders, liberals who see their best hope with the regimes, democrats willing to ally with Islamists

20. It is not always secularists in power and Islamists in opposition But it usually is.

21. Who Will Win? • Islamists certainly have the momentum • Iranian Revolution of 1979 • Islamist victory in Afghanistan against Soviet Union in the 1980’s • Islamist electoral victories in Turkey, Iraq, Palestine, Iran and good showings elsewhere • Hizballah in Lebanon standing up to Israelis in summer of 2006, facing down the government in spring of 2008 • Hamas taking power in Gaza in summer of 2007

22. But don’t count the “secular” elites out quite yet • Longevity of Arab regimes • Arab secular elites win civil wars • Syria in early 1980’s • Algeria in 1990’s • Egypt in 1990’s • Saudi Arabia against al-Qaeda now • How will the Turkish secular elite react to AKP victory? • Unpopularity of Ahmadinejad in Iran

23. Why are Arab regimes so enduring? • Strong security forces + • Control of the economy + • Steady revenue sources: oil, aid + • Outside support = Arab states with the ability to control their societies

24. The Course • Elements of Islamic history that are relevant • State formation in the 20th century • State Building and the Economy • The Rise of Islamist Politics • Country cases: Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia • Why no Arab Democracies? Iraq as case • Bin Laden and the Future of Political Islam