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An inland rail route between Melbourne and Brisbane?

An inland rail route between Melbourne and Brisbane?. The North-South rail corridor study. 14 June 2007. BTRE Transport Colloquium. Structure of presentation. Introduction Total freight market Mode choice modelling Access prices Passenger market modelling Project outcomes

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An inland rail route between Melbourne and Brisbane?

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  1. An inland rail route between Melbourne and Brisbane? The North-South rail corridor study 14 June 2007 BTRE Transport Colloquium

  2. Structure of presentation • Introduction • Total freight market • Mode choice modelling • Access prices • Passenger market modelling • Project outcomes • Areas of future research

  3. The task • Background: freight growth, Auslink upgrades, lobbying for inland rail route • To consider options for the Melbourne - Brisbane rail corridor over the next 25 years • Consortium: • Ernst and Young (project leader, financial anaylsis) • Hyder (route options, other infrastructure, environmental) • ACIL Tasman (demand, access prices)

  4. Analytical approach • Identify current total freight market • Forecast growth in total freight market for 25 years • Determine current mode shares • Estimate mode shares over 25 years and their sensitivity to changing service quality • Estimate rail freight over 25 years • Integrate with other models in consortium

  5. Path of far western route

  6. Freight movements (excl. coal)

  7. Analysis of base (2004) • Origin - destination tonnages by commodity • Data from rail operators, BTRE, ABS, FDF • FreightSim for forecasting model. Structure: production, imports, consumption • ACIL Tasman model of freight inducement effects

  8. Drivers of future demand • GDP growth (production, imports, consumption) • Transport freight to GDP growth ratio • Growth of industrial concentration • Growth of agricultural production • Growth of imports, service sector • Scenarios • High/medium/low GDP • Growth transport/GDP ratio

  9. New East Coast demand with an inland route • Coal in southern QLD, northern NSW • But questions about which route, which port • Little else • Mainly a through route with a stop at Parkes

  10. Freight diversion – northern NSW • 27% of grain from Northern Plains to Brisbane from Newcastle • 50% of cotton from Northern Plains to Brisbane from Port Botany • Brisbane-Perth freight via Parkes • No other material freight diversion

  11. Future demand modelling results

  12. Road, rail, sea or air ? • Current market shares by mode • Drivers of mode choice • Sydney • Convenient departures • Logit model • Results

  13. 2004 snapshot • Current Rail mode shares • Melbourne-Brisbane ~30% • Melbourne-Sydney ~7% • Sydney-Brisbane ~11% • Rail more price competitive on longer routes, less on shorter routes because of PUD time and costs • Rail outperformed by road in service quality

  14. Mode performance 2004 – M to B

  15. Explanatory variables • Price • $/tonne (but complexities) • Reliability • within 15 minutes of scheduled arrival time • Availability • % of times the freight carrier is available within an hour of customers’ preferred time • Survey: • how does demand for rail (at the expense of road) vary with changes in price, reliability, availability?

  16. Reliability - problems in Sydney

  17. Transit time & availability

  18. Survey results – all customers

  19. Survey results - manufactured

  20. The manufactured market

  21. Mode choice • Logit model to predict modal shares • Calibrated to explain current shares • Forecast changes based on expected route characteristics • Price (incl fuel price, driver shortage) • Reliability following AusLink upgrade • Availability following AusLink upgrade • Key parameters estimated from • Surveys • Econometric analysis of past data

  22. Logit model • Gives probability (%) of freight forwarder choosing mode n • Simple logit (two modes) formula • Where U is utility of using rail or road • linear utility functions: constant + variable1 x coefficient1 + etc

  23. Logit model – hierarchical structure • Logit model can be used at each level of the freight decision making process • Nested logit useful for inland rail analysis

  24. Values/inputs to use in the model • Current estimates of road and rail performance and mode share were derived from • Rail operators, BTRE, ARTC, surveys • Future estimates of road and rail performance were derived from • ARTC, BTRE, ACIL Tasman, Hyder, freight operators • Standalone road and rail freight pricing model developed • Access prices, fuel costs, labour

  25. Scenarios • Case A (reference), Case B (high rail), Case C (low rail) • Fuel price assumptions • Road and rail labour cost assumptions

  26. Elasticities and coefficients • Choice elasticities were estimated • From these – coefficients were calculated

  27. Testing of the logit model • Observed performance (Melb-Perth 2000) • Logit modelling of same input variables

  28. Results – rail market share

  29. Revenue maximising access charges

  30. Financial and economic results • Summary of results • Interpretation of results • Coastal route: problems and solutions • Inland route: problems and solutions Full report including Ernst & Young and Hyder chapters not covered here, on www.aciltasman.com.au

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