Chapter 5 Planning and Decision Making Ellen A Drost, Ph.D.

1. Chapter 5Planning and Decision MakingEllen A Drost, Ph.D.

2. Planning After reading these sections, you should be able to: discuss the benefits and pitfalls of planning. describe how to make a plan that works. discuss how companies can use plans at allmanagement levels, from top to bottom.

3. Planning Planning Choosing a goal and developing amethod of strategy to achieve that goal 1

4. Benefits of Planning Persistence Direction IntensifiedEffort Creationof Task Strategies Benefits of Planning 1.2

5. Pitfalls of Planning False Senseof Certainty Impedes Changeand Adaptation Detachmentof Planners Pitfalls of Planning 1.2

6. Set Goals DevelopCommitment DevelopEffective Action Plans TrackProgress Toward Goal Achievement MaintainFlexibility Revise existing planorBegin new planning process How to Make a Plan That Works 2

7. Specific S.M.A.R.T. • Measurable • Attainable • Realistic • Timely Setting Goals 2.1

8. Wrigley: “In 2005, the company will decrease the long-term rate of return assumption for the assets of its U.S. (pension) plans from 8.75 % to 8.5%.” Halliburton: “We estimate that 74% of the backlog existing on 12/31 will be eliminated the following fiscal year.” Martha Stewart Living: “In 2004 we will discontinue the Catalog for Living and its online product options, and sell remaining inventory in early fiscal 2005.” Examples of S.M.A.R.T. Goals?

9. Starbucks: “In fiscal 2006, we plan to open approximately 1,800 net new stores globally.” Walgreen: “Second is to hire a significant number of people with disabilities in our South Carolina distribution center, scheduled to open in 2007, and achieve 20% productivity gains there.” UPS: “65% of drivers will have access to the new technology (implemented in 2004) by the end of 2005.” and “In 2005, we will increase operating profit in each of our 3 key businesses: domestic, int’l, supply chain.” Examples of S.M.A.R.T. Goals?

10. Developing Commitment to Goals • The determination to achieve a goal is increased by: • Setting goals participatively • Making goals reasonable • Making goals public • Obtaining top management support 2.2

11. Specific Steps People Resources Time Period Developing Effective Action Plans An Action Plan Lists… 2.3

12. Tracking Progress Set… Gather and provide… Performance Feedback Short-term Goals Long-term Goals 2.4

13. Maintaining Flexibility • plans need to be continuously adjusted 2.5

14. What Is Rational Decision Making? After reading these sections, you should be able to: explain the steps and limits to rational decision making. explain how group decisions and groupdecision-making techniques can improvedecision-making.

15. Decision Making The process of choosing a solution fromavailable alternatives. Rational Decision Making A systematic process of defining problems, evaluating alternatives, and choosing optimal solutions. What Is Rational Decision Making? 4

16. 1 Define the problem 2 Identify decision criteria 3 Weight the criteria 4 Generate alternative courses of action 5 Evaluate each alternative 6 Compute the optimal decision Steps to Rational Decision Making 4

17. Steps to Rational Decision Making 1 Define the problem • A problem exists when there is a gap between a desired state and an existing state • To make decisions about problems, managers must: • be aware of the gap • be motivated to reduce the gap • have the knowledge, skills, abilities, and resources to fix the problem 4.1

18. Steps to Rational Decision Making 2 Identify decision criteria • Standards used to guide judgments and decisions • The more criteria a potential solution meets, the better that solution should be 4.2

19. Steps to Rational Decision Making 3 Weight the criteria • Absolute comparisons • each criterion is compared to a standard or ranked on its own merits • Relative comparisons • each criterion is compared directly to every other criterion 4.3

20. Steps to Rational Decision Making Absolute Weighting of Decision Criteria 4.3

21. Steps to Rational Decision Making 4 Generate alternative courses of action • The idea is to generate as many alternatives as possible 4.4

22. Steps to Rational Decision Making 5 Evaluate each alternative • This step can take much longer and be more expensive than other steps in the process 4.5

23. Steps to Rational Decision Making 6 Computethe optimal decision • Multiply the rating for each criterion by the weight for that criterion • Sum the scores for each alternative course of action 4.6

24. Bounded Rationality • A decision-making process restricted in the real world by: • limited resources • incomplete and imperfect information • managers’ limited decision-making capabilities Limits to Rational Decision Making 4.7

25. Maximize Satisfice Limits to Rational Decision Making 4.7

26. StructuredConflict NominalGroupTechnique DelphiTechnique StepladderTechnique ElectronicBrainstorming Using Groups to Improve Decision Making 5

27. Group Decision Making Advantages • View problems from multiple perspectives • Find and access more information • Generate more alternative solutions • More committed to making chosen solutions work 5.1

28. Disadvantages • Susceptible to groupthink and to considering a limited number of solutions • Takes considerable time • One or two people can dominate group discussion • Members don’t feel personally accountable for decisions and actions Group Decision Making 5.1

29. Groupthink is likely to occur when… • The group is insulated from others with different perspectives • The group leader expresses a strong preference for a particular decision • There is no established procedure for defining problems and exploring alternatives • Group members have similar backgrounds Groupthink 5.1

30. Structured Conflict C-Type Conflict Cognitive conflict. Disagreement that focuses onproblem- and issue-related differences of opinion A-Type Conflict Affective conflict. Disagreement that focuses onindividuals or personal issues 5.3

31. Steps to Establish a Devil’s Advocacy Program • Generate a potential solution • Assign a devil’s advocate to criticize and question • Present the critique of the solution to key decision makers • Gather additional information • Decide whether to use, change, or not usethe originally proposed solution Devil’s Advocacy 5.2

32. Steps to Establish Nominal Group Technique • During a “quiet time,” group members write down as many problems and solutions as possible • Each member shares one idea at a time • Ideas are posted on flipcharts until all ideas are shared • Group discusses advantages/disadvantages • Ideas are ranked during a second “quiet time” • Members read rankings aloud, and the idea with thehighest average rank is selected Nominal Group Technique 5.3

33. Steps to Establish Delphi Technique • Assemble a panel of experts. • Create a questionnaire of open-ended questions. • Summarize the responses and feed back to the panel until the members reach agreement. • Create a brief report and send to the panel members for agreement/disagreement. • Continue the feedback process until panel reaches agreement. Delphi Technique 5.4

34. Beyond the Book Member 4 JoinsGroup Shares thoughts, ideas, recommendations Members 1, 2, & 3 Share previous thoughts, ideas, recommendations Discussion is Held and Tentative Group Decision is Made Step 3 Member 3 JoinsGroup Shares thoughts, ideas, recommendations Members 1 & 2 Share previous thoughts, ideas, recommendations Discussion is Held and Tentative Group Decision is Made Step 2 Member 1 Shares thoughts, ideas, recommendations Member 2 Shares thoughts, ideas, recommendations Discussion is Held and Tentative Group Decision is Made Step 1 Stepladder Technique

35. Four Rules of Brainstorming • The more ideas, the better. • All ideas are acceptable, no matter how wild or crazy. • Other group members’ ideas should be usedto come up with even more ideas. • Criticism or evaluation of ideas is not allowed. Electronic Brainstorming 5.6

36. Advantages of Electronic Brainstorming Electronic Brainstorming • Overcomes production blocking • technology allows everyone to record their ideas as they are created • no ideas lost “waiting your turn” to speak • Overcomes evaluation apprehension • anonymity creates free expression 5.6

37. Disadvantages of Electronic Brainstorming Electronic Brainstorming • Greater expense • No automatic acceptance of ideas because of one’s position • Some find it difficult to express themselves in writing • Lack of typing skills can frustrate participants 5.6