1 / 10

The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook

The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook. Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Outline. Seasonal tools 2008-09 U. S. Winter (DJF) Outlook. Pacific SSTs. December - February OCN. 1998-2007. Temperature.

palmer
Télécharger la présentation

The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The 2008-2009 U. S. Winter Outlook Michael Halpert Deputy Director Climate Prediction Center Mike.Halpert@noaa.gov http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  2. Outline • Seasonal tools • 2008-09 U. S. Winter (DJF) Outlook

  3. Pacific SSTs

  4. December - February OCN 1998-2007 Temperature

  5. December - February OCN Precipitation 1998-2007

  6. IRI – MME DJF Forecasts

  7. Consolidation Forecast Objective skill-weighted combination of statistical tools, CFS, trend

  8. Winter 2008-09 Outlook Rationale • ENSO-neutral conditions are currently observed in the Pacific. • This is expected to persist through the winter. • NAO (AO) has been and continues to be erratic. Large swings possible in any year • Variability due to intraseasonal oscillations possible (likely) • Trends favor above-normal temperatures over much of nation and drier-than-average conditions in the Southeast.

  9. December 2008 – February 2009 Temperature Outlook

  10. December 2008 – February 2009 Precipitation Outlook

More Related