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ABC Analysis

ABC Analysis. Period: JULY - DECEMBER 2011 Report Date: 16 th February 2012. Contents. Assumptions 3 MARKET INDICATORS Economy Overview 5 Market Overview 6 ABC NEWS ABC Top Risers & Fallers 8 Subscription Performance 9

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ABC Analysis

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  1. ABC Analysis Period: JULY - DECEMBER 2011 Report Date: 16th February 2012

  2. Contents Assumptions 3 MARKET INDICATORS Economy Overview 5 Market Overview 6 ABC NEWS ABC Top Risers & Fallers 8 Subscription Performance 9 Overseas Performance 10 SUB-SEGMENTS Children's Magazines ; Pre-School 12 Children's Magazines ; Pre-Teen 13 Children's Magazines ; Primary Boys 14 Children's Magazines ; Primary Girls 15 Home Interest ; Gardening 16 Leisure Interest ; Photography 17 Motoring & Motorcycling ; Motoring – Classics 18 News & Current Affairs ; Current Affairs - Domestic 19 Women’s Interest ; Cookery & Kitchen 20 Women’s Interest ; Home Interest 21 APPENDIX Debut Titles 23 ABC Summary – By Title 24 ABC Summary – By Segment 31 ABC Summary – By Publisher 38

  3. Assumptions This analysis uses ABC consumer magazine data and therefore is not reflective of the magazine market in its entirety. ABC data does not provide a complete picture of the market due to the overall number of magazines that audit in any given ABC release period and the consistency at which they do so. Constant titles Where reference to constant title data is made, with regards to this report, it is done so for magazines which have declared an ABC for every period over the last 10 years (20 audit periods in total). Excluded data All ABC analysis will focus only on those magazines that have a UK Newstrade presence. Therefore any magazine which has a wholly subscription, free or overseas circulation will be excluded as will any duplicate data. Examples of duplicate data would be any regionally split sales that submit audits for each regional edition and also a national total, this would otherwise be double counting if both figures were included. Naming Standard trade segment and sub-segment names have been used in the report rather than the Market Sector names in the release. Additionally, where possible, magazine names commonly used in the trade are used rather than those in the ABC release. Sub-Segment Analysis (pages 12 to 21 inclusive) The graphs shown on the sub-segment pages only show titles that have a year-on-year change (ie audited this period and for the equivalent period last year). Due to size restraints, these graphs show a maximum of 13 titles each. The magazine table in the sub-segment analysis (located at the bottom of the page) has all magazines that have not audited for the current ABC release removed from the view. Seymour Market Data Where reference is made to Seymour Market Data (SMID) or Topline Retail Estimates (TRE) please note that figures are estimates only based upon data sourced from third parties, and should be used as a guide only. General If there are any further general or specific information requirements please do not hesitate to contact the Trading Operations Centre at TOC@seymour.co.uk.

  4. Market Indicators

  5. Economy Overview Inflation (CPI and RPI) Both CPI and RPI have fallen significantly when comparing January with December. A factor in this is that VAT was increased from 17.5% to 20% in January 2011 resulting in upward pressures which are now not in effect. CPI decreased to 3.6%, down from 4.2% in December 2011. This followed a 0.6% drop in December compared to November. The only time a drop of over 1.2% has been seen over a period of two months was between October and December 2008. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Gross Domestic Product showed a decrease of 0.2% for Quarter 4 (Q4) of 2011. Following a similar pattern to 2010, this decrease followed three periods of GDP growth including a 0.6% growth for Q3. Main drivers for this were weakness in the production (down 1.2% compared with +0.2% in Q3) and construction (down 0.5%) industries. It is also thought that the public sector strike on 30 Nov is likely to have had an impact, although this cannot be directly measured. The services industry also moved from 0.7% growth to showing no change in this quarter. Retail Sales Retail sales values increased 6.2% in December 2011 when compared to December 2010. Sales volumes also increased but by a smaller rate of 2.6%. Main upward effects were automotive fuel (up 11.2%) and textile, clothing & footwear stores (6.3%). Predominantly food stores rose 5.8% for retail sales volume and 1.2% sales volume with predominantly non-food stores growing 2.1% and 1.1% respectively. Non store retailing rose by an impressive 9.7% for retail sales value and 10.1% for sales volume. Source; Office of National Statistics website

  6. Market Overview Seymour Market Data (SMID) Sept-Nov 11 Seymour Topline Retail Estimates (TRE) Jul-Nov 11

  7. ABC News

  8. ABC Top Risers & Fallers Children’s Magazines has six titles in the Top 20 Risers but also has three in the Top 20 Fallers, again highlighting the ever-changing nature of the market. Women’s Interest has seven in the Top 20 Risers and three in the Top 20 Fallers. Between these two they account for nine of the Top 10 Risers. Sport has three titles in the Top 20 Risers, all football related, but has avoided having any in the Top 20 Fallers. Computing, however, has five titles in the Top 20 Fallers spanning five different sub-segments. The Top 20 Risers are completed by two from Leisure Interests and one each from News & Current Affairs and Countryside & County. Four titles show growth in excess of 30% with a further five showing growth of over 20%. The title to show the highest positive copy variance within the Top 20 Risers is Slimming World with an increase of 59,604.

  9. Subscription Performance Total Subscriptions for constant titles (those to have audited in each of the last 20 periods) again show a slight increase, 1.3%. This is the fourth consecutive increase and the highest increase since Jul-Dec 08. Looking across all segments, it can be seen that 19.0% of Total Circulation comes from Total Subscriptions (17.6% from UK Subscriptions and 1.4% from Overseas). This is a new high and continues the trend of this category contributing a bigger percentage in each Jul-Dec period year-on-year. Looking at the Jul-Dec releases, we can see that the percentage contribution has increased each year since Jul-Dec 00, clearly shown in the middle graph. Two segments have over 50% of their Total Circulation coming from this category and eleven have at least a quarter. There are six segments, conversely, that have less than 6% of their Total Circulation from this category.

  10. Overseas Circulation Performance Overseas Circulation is continuing to see a gradual decline year-on-year with constant titles showing a 3.3% fall. This is the seventh consecutive fall seen, Jan-Jun 08 being the last period to show an increase. When looking at all titles we see this decline increase to 11.1%, but it must be noted that there are less UK Newstrade titles auditing this period compared to a year ago, 420 versus 469. The share of Total Circulation from this category takes a slight fall from 7.5% a year ago to 7.3% in this period. This, however, is the fourth Jul-Dec period running where the contribution has been between 7% and 7.5%, so can be considered fairly static. Six segments have more than 10% of their Total Circulation coming from this area, Music standing out with 30.5%. Breaking this down by title it can be seen that there are six titles from the Music segment that have at least 40% from this area.

  11. Sub-Segments

  12. Children’s Magazines ; Pre-School Pre-School remains the biggest and arguably most competitive sub-segment within the Children’s Magazines segment. Both year-on-year and period-on-period show declines in UK Newstrade performance. Television remains key to pre-schoolers. A concern going forward is that commercial broadcasters such as ITV and Channel 4 have recently announced budget cuts and reduced air time for children’s TV programs. Four of the Top 20 Risers are in this sub-segment and just one title appears in the Top 20 Fallers, see page eight. Seven titles show year-on-year UK Newstrade growth (just under half of the titles in this period), four of which show double digit growthand three above 20%. Gifts still play an important factor, but with the cost of them having increased, this could be a contributing factor to some titles increasing cover prices. The only title to make its ABC debut in this sub-segment is Immediate Media Company’s Octonauts, which launched in November 11, based on the popular Cbeebies TV programme of the same name. It will be interesting to see how this title fares over coming audits with the dynamic nature of this market.

  13. Children’s Magazines ; Pre-Teen Pre-Teen is the smallest sub-segment in Children’s magazines but shows a 17.8% year-on-year growth in Sales Volume (Seymour market data estimates for July to November). A lot of this growth can be explained by the launch of Moshi Monster Magazine, released in February 2011 by Skyjack Publishing Ltd. This magazine is thought to be the first of any to be launched from the success of a social website. The debut of Moshi Monster Magazine, with a Total Circulation of 162,838, makes it clearly the biggest title in this sub-segment to have audited. Reasons for the success of this launch could include the uni-sex nature of the magazine, the collectables included and, of course, the success of the website. There have recently been two further launches in Children’s Magazines based on hugely successful websites so this could be an interesting trend to watch. Egmont Magazines UK’s Toxicis the only title to be up year-on-year for both Total Circulation and UK Newstrade. First News also shows an increase in terms of Total Circulation but is down for UK Newstrade. This sub-segment, as with all Children’s Magazines sub-segments, continues to be ever changing. 2011 saw seven titles cease in Pre-Teen and four launch.

  14. Children’s Magazines ; Primary Boys It is widely accepted that this market is a particularly tough one, with nearly all titles revolving around a specific TV character or programme. Seymour market estimates have shown that historically, sales in this sub-segment have shown distinct peaks and troughs relating to school holiday periods. More recent data, covering 2010 and 2011, has shown that this seasonality is no longer as evident, with sales staying relatively flat throughout the year. Although the market contains strong brands that should benefit from associated loyalty, it is also thought to be venerable from the constant changes in trends and crazes. The growth of collectables over recent years is also thought to be having an effect on the sales in this sub-segment as many recent launches have been aimed at the same consumers. Egmont Magazines UK’s World of Cars both bucks the trend and lends itself to the observations mentioned above. The launch of Disney Pixar’s Cars 2 movie will have helped boost sales of this title, showing year-on-year and period-on-period growth of over 30%, with 100% of Total Circulation coming from UK Newstrade.

  15. Children’s Magazines ; Primary Girls The Primary Girls sub-segment is one that shows a healthy picture, with five out of the seven titles submitting an audit showing year-on-year Total Circulation growth. Growth is shown most clearly by the sub-segment’s top ranked title, Egmont Magazine UK’s Disney Princess, and Jacqueline Wilson from D C Thomson & Co Ltd - both showing impressive Total Circulation growths in excess of 10%. The former showing a 10.6% year-on-year UK Newstrade growth and appearing in the Top 20 Risers as a result. In a positive turnaround from the previous audit period, the majority of titles submitting an audit in this period have shown growth across the board. Girl Talk is a notable exception, showing considerable decreases period-on-period and year-on-year. As with all of the sub-segments in Children’s Magazines, sales continue to be driven by successful and/or popular covermounts. Titles appearing here tend to be less associated with specific TV or film characters and tend to cover a wider variety of content, potentially allowing increased flexibility to fit with changing trends.

  16. Home Interest ; Gardening The UK Newstrade sales for the Gardening sub-segment are down 9.1% year-on-year. It, as ever, remains highly seasonal. There have been few launches, perhaps reflecting the tough conditions. More recent launches tend to have been more targeted, aiming at specialist areas rather than general gardening hints and tips. There are pockets of modest growth to be found, particularly in the ‘grow your own’ and top end aspirational titles. The percentage of growers continues to rise, possibly due to economic factors, despite the cost of packets of seeds continuing to rise. The growing of herbs has become more popular, perhaps benefiting from more exposure on cookery television programmes. The weekly title Amateur Gardening is the only one to post a year-on-year UK Newstrade growth, reversing the performance of other titles. Four titles do, however, record Total Circulation increases. The share of sales coming from Total Subscriptions continues to grow in this sub-segment, now up to 31.7%. This explains how Total Circulation is in growth year-on-year despite the fall in UK Newstrade.

  17. Leisure Interests ; Photography In an encouraging sign for this sub-segment, there have been five new launches in this period and only two closures. None of these launches have audited though. The only title to report year-on-year UK Newstrade growth in this sub-segment is Digital Camera Mag with a 7.8% growth. Two titles show year-on-year Total Circulation growth, Digital Camera Mag and Digital SLR Photography. There appears to be more significant covermount activity now, possibly as readers appear to be less loyal than traditionally seen, meaning they can be swayed to switch titles more easily. The digital compact market is thought to be stagnating which has led to some electronics companies looking to the high-end market, the semi-professional photographer. For this consumer the next big release in camera hardware will be the mirrorless digital camera. Manufacturers such as Sony and Fuji Film are expected to launch their versions in 2012 which could help boost magazine sales. Future developments could also see readers moving to digital editions at a greater rate than in other sub-segments. This is because the target audience is thought to have a higher likelihood to move to such forms of media than for many other sub-segments.

  18. Motoring & Motorcycling ; Motoring - Classics Octane is the only title to record a positive year-on-year comparison for Total Circulation, up 6.4%. Classic Car Weekly is visibly struggling within the market, recording the highest year-on-year declines in both Total Circulation (12.3%) and UK Newstrade (14.4%). Despite this, Classic Car Weekly is still ranked as the number one title in this sub-segment, according to wholesale ranking data. Classic & Sports Car is, however, closing the gap with a slow increase compared to the steady downward trend from Classic Car Weekly, which has fallen out of the top 100 ranked titles since last year. It has been reported by some publishers that sales have declined substantially in Ireland due to the financial crisis, a key area for this sub-segment. Launch activity has been low in this sub-segment with only two titles launching in this period, both of which could be considered niche titles. Big publishers continue to dominate this market, especially for the mass market generic content titles. On a positive note, no titles ceased in the period.

  19. News & Current Affairs ; Current Affairs - Domestic It is well publicised that across the industry, many publishers are making considerable movements towards digital media. Many titles, including Week (The) and Oldie (The) have launched digital editions and apps, which lend themselves well in such a potentially fast moving sub-segment. Despite the potential distraction from the printed press, this sub-segment is showing considerable resilience, with copy sales remaining strong and showing a 3.6% growth in year-on-year Total Circulation. There are four titles showing growth in year-on-year UK Newstrade, led by the second highest wholesale ranked title, Private Eye, showing growth in excess of 15%. There is one title submitting a debut audit in this period, Irish World, presenting a respectable UK Newstrade of over 9,800 copies. However, there are no audited figures for Total Subscriptions or Total Overseas sales, and as a result, the Total Circulation figure is at the lower end of sales within this sub-segment. This sub-segment continues to be driven mainly by Total Subscriptions with 61.9% of Total Circulation coming from this type of sale.

  20. Women’s Interest ; Cookery & Kitchen Cookery & Kitchen is a market where content continues to be in great demand. There are numerous sources for content and magazine sales continue to be threatened by more accessible sources such as apps and the web, along with the on-going economic difficulty, putting more pressure on disposable income. This is, unfortunately, reflected in Sales Volumes audited in this period. UK Newstrade has shown a 10.7% decline year-on-year, driven by five out of eight titles showing declines in excess of 10%. Segment leaders (according to wholesale rankings) Good Food, Delicious and Olive have all presented distinct year-on-year declines. On a positive note, H Bauer Publishing’s Eat In appears to have bucked this trend, appearing second in the Top 20 Risers, with an impressive 37.4% UK Newstrade growth year-on-year, moving from 16,264 to 20,522 copies. Period-on-period UK Newstrade figures present a positive picture with all titles submitting an audit showing growth. Again led by Eat In, 57.9%, and followed by Jamie Magazine, 28.6%. This fluctuation between year-on-year and period-on-period figures is likely to be because of the considerable seasonal influence seen at Christmas in this sub-segment.

  21. Women’s Interest ; Home Interest Good Homes and Country Homes are both in the Top 20 Risers in terms of percentage growth for UK Newstrade, see page eight. Unfortunately House Beautiful was in the Top 20 Fallers reflecting the fact that performances in this sub-segment are very mixed. Of the 22 titles reporting a UK Newstrade year-on-year change, there are eight in growth and 14 in decline. Total Circulation has been helped by a slight increase in Total Subscriptions and, as a result, when looking at Total Circulation an even split is seen with 11 titles in growth and 11 in decline. The audited titles suggest the sub-segment is in slight decline, whereas Seymour market estimates show the market is in marginal growth. It is clear, however, that this is a sizeable sub-segment with an estimated annual RSV of somewhere in the region of £40m. Rankings from wholesale for November 11 show there are four titles in this sub-segment within the top 100. This, however, is down from six in October 11 with House Beautiful and Your Home both dropping outside the top 100.

  22. Appendix

  23. Debut Titles Ordered By Title Ordered By Segment

  24. ABC Summary – By Title

  25. ABC Summary – By Title

  26. ABC Summary – By Title

  27. ABC Summary – By Title

  28. ABC Summary – By Title

  29. ABC Summary – By Title

  30. ABC Summary – By Title

  31. ABC Summary – By Segment

  32. ABC Summary – By Segment

  33. ABC Summary – By Segment

  34. ABC Summary – By Segment

  35. ABC Summary – By Segment

  36. ABC Summary – By Segment

  37. ABC Summary – By Segment

  38. ABC Summary – By Publisher Publisher name taken from last known reference in ABC release. Whilst every effort is made to ensure accuracy of this information please note that publisher details are subject to change and some inaccuracies may occur as a result of this

  39. ABC Summary – By Publisher Publisher name taken from last known reference in ABC release. Whilst every effort is made to ensure accuracy of this information please note that publisher details are subject to change and some inaccuracies may occur as a result of this

  40. ABC Summary – By Publisher Publisher name taken from last known reference in ABC release. Whilst every effort is made to ensure accuracy of this information please note that publisher details are subject to change and some inaccuracies may occur as a result of this

  41. ABC Summary – By Publisher Publisher name taken from last known reference in ABC release. Whilst every effort is made to ensure accuracy of this information please note that publisher details are subject to change and some inaccuracies may occur as a result of this

  42. ABC Summary – By Publisher Publisher name taken from last known reference in ABC release. Whilst every effort is made to ensure accuracy of this information please note that publisher details are subject to change and some inaccuracies may occur as a result of this

  43. ABC Summary – By Publisher Publisher name taken from last known reference in ABC release. Whilst every effort is made to ensure accuracy of this information please note that publisher details are subject to change and some inaccuracies may occur as a result of this

  44. ABC Summary – By Publisher Publisher name taken from last known reference in ABC release. Whilst every effort is made to ensure accuracy of this information please note that publisher details are subject to change and some inaccuracies may occur as a result of this

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