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Real Estate Investment Market Russia – Experiences and Expectations

Real Estate Investment Market Russia – Experiences and Expectations. Cannes, 11 March 2009. Dr Thomas Beyerle DEGI mbH, Frankfurt/M. Macroeconomic data. Russia – economical overview. Source: RESEARCH, 2009. Macroeconomic data – comments. General view for Russia:

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Real Estate Investment Market Russia – Experiences and Expectations

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  1. Real Estate Investment Market Russia – Experiences and Expectations Cannes, 11 March 2009 Dr Thomas Beyerle DEGI mbH, Frankfurt/M.

  2. Macroeconomic data

  3. Russia – economical overview Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  4. Macroeconomic data – comments General view for Russia: • high GDP growth over the last 10 years • a sharp slowdown in 2009, due to: • the large drop in the oil prices • the significant tightening of credit conditions which has resulted in a falling rouble and rising interest rates. Medium-term view: • a strong rebound in Asian economies by 2010/2011 would lead to another period of rising oil/commodity prices, which will benefit Russia

  5. Property Market

  6. Russia – largest country of the world (space)

  7. Main investment universe St. Petersburg Moscow Aberdeen Property Investors 15 Ulitsa Chapaeva 197101 St. Petersburg

  8. Government aid for real estate market – new projected cities Handelsblatt, 17 October 2008 Moscow is developing to a tenant dominated market THOMAS DAILY, 30 January 2009 Building freeze for Europe‘s highest office tower in Moscow FAZ, 23 November 2008 Partner of ECE puts shopping center projects on hold THOMAS DAILY, 19 November 2008 30 %-decrease in residential use THOMAS DAILY, 19 November 200/8 Hotel market transferred from luxury class to middle class in Moscow Allgemeine Hotel- und Gastronomiezeitung, 22 November 2008 Newspaper headlines

  9. Market Entry Model – Russia in global comparison High risk market entry conditions

  10. Degree of maturity – Europe Proceeding degree of maturity Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  11. Global office market cycle Recovery Phase Growth phase Downturn phase Correction phase Decreasing vacancy Rental growth picking up Construction activity picking up Vacancy peaking Further fall in rents Decrease in construction activity Supply shortage Strong rental growth Increasing construction activity Increasing vacancy Falling rent levels Construction activity high but falling Prague, Milan Budapest, Sydney Berlin, Stuttgart, Vienna Atlanta, Brussels, LA, Moscow, New York, Oslo, Paris Istanbul Amsterdam, Barcelona, Boston, Chicago, Madrid, Warsaw Dallas Athens Bucharest, Calgary, Cologne, Copenhagen, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Helsinki, Melbourne, Munich, Rome Luxembourg, Sofia, St. Petersburg, Stockholm, Washington London: City Rental level Detroit Jakarta Philadelphia, Seoul Beijing Hong Kong Shanghai time Singapore Mumbai Osaka Tokyo Las Vegas 11 Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  12. Rents Europe (prime) – annual change * Forecast 12 Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  13. Rents (prime) – Moscow, St. Petersburg High rental increase Decrease until 2010 * Forecast 13 Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  14. Increasing NIY (Q2 2007 - Q4 2008) 14 Quelle: RESEARCH, 2009

  15. Office Yields (prime) – Europe * Forecast 15 Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  16. Office Yields (prime) – Europe, Moscow, St. Petersburg * Forecast 16 Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  17. Investment market structure – Russia

  18. Development of commercial property sales – Moscow -24 % Deals -12 % Volume 18 Source: Real Capital Analytics

  19. Commercial Property Sales by user types 2008 – Moscow Total: 5,805 in million USD 19 Source: Real Capital Analytics

  20. Commercial real estate capital market – Russia Total: 31.63 in billion EUR 20 Source: DTZ, Money into Property 2008, figures 2007

  21. To sum up: Crisis? What Crisis?

  22. Back-up

  23. SWOT analysis Moscow from investor's view

  24. GDP (real) – annual change Russia – above average 24 Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  25. CPI Inflation – annual change Russia – high CPI 25 Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  26. Consumer Spending – annual change Russia – above average 26 Source: RESEARCH, 2009

  27. Part ofAberdeen Property Investors DEGI Deutsche Gesellschaft für Immobilienfonds mbH Total Expense Ratio (TER)The Total Expense Ratio (TER) expresses the sum total of costs and charges as a percentage of the average value of the fund within a financial year and thus includes all charges and costs incurred in connection with the fund investment, except for transaction costs and front-end load, if any. Prospectuses and Annual Reports are available free of charge from DEGI and the marketing companies. You will find the daily fund prices in supraregional newspapers and on the Internet at www.degi.com. Forward-looking statement disclaimer – Forecasts are to be understood as examples which are based on certain assumptions that are considered realistic. We cannot guarantee that the underlying assumptions will actually occur nor can we accept responsibility for deviations due to changes in the legal bases and in economic developments. phone: 0049 (69)-768072-0E-Mail: info@degi.com Internet:www.degi.com

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