1 / 16

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 November 2012. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

paul
Télécharger la présentation

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 5 November 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of South America especially north of 10S. Above-average rainfall was found over southern Peru, southwestern Brazil (centered near 13S/60W) and central Argentina. • For 5-11 November, above-average precipitation is predicted for southeastern Brazil, southeastern Bolivia, northern Paraguay and a portion of eastern Argentina, and below-average precipitation is predicted over northern and northwestern South America, northeastern Argentina and extreme southern Brazil. • For 12-18 November, above-average precipitation is predicted over southeastern Brazil, northern Colombia and northeastern Argentina, and below-average precipitation is predicted over most regions north of 10S, extreme southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina. • .

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of South America especially north of 10S. Above-average rainfall was found over southern Peru, southwestern Brazil (centered near 13S/60W) and central Argentina.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most regions north of 30S. Above-average precipitation was found over portions of central Columbia, Peru, Uruguay and eastern Argentina.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are clearly below average over the southern Amazon basin, Brazilian Plateau, and southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Above-average SSTs are observed in the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Above-average SSTs are found in 10-20N and below-average SSTs are observed in 10-20S in the Atlantic Ocean. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 27 October – 2 November, anomalous upper-tropospheric anticyclonic circulation (center indicated by red A) was observed to the northeastern Argentina. Upper-tropospheric convergent flow was found over northern South America. • Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over 20S-40S and sinking motion was found over most regions north of 20S. A Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period of 27 October – 2 November 2012, temperatures were above average over most of Brazil (especially in the south) and northeastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 5 Nov 2012 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 5 Nov 2012 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (5-11 November), above-average precipitation is predicted for southeastern Brazil, southeastern Bolivia, northern Paraguay and a portion of eastern Argentina, and below-average precipitation is predicted over northern and northwestern South America, northeastern Argentina and extreme southern Brazil. • For Days 8-14 (12-18 November), above-average precipitation is predicted over southeastern Brazil, northern Colombia and northeastern Argentina, and below-average precipitation is predicted over most regions north of 10S, extreme southern Brazil and northeastern Argentina.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 22 Oct 2012 Valid 29 Oct – 4 Nov 2012 Forecast from 29 October 2012 Valid 29 Oct – 4 Nov 2012 Observed 29 Oct – 4 Nov 2012 Unavailable

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

More Related