Japanese Politics after Koizumi: Beginning of New-style Politics or End of the Regime?

1. Japanese Politics after Koizumi:Beginning of New-style Politics or End of the Regime? Rei SHIRATORI President Institute for Political Studies in Japan (IPSJ)

2. Why so much different?

3. Koizumi as a ‘Savior’ in the midst of decline of the LDP • Japanese Politics entered into the “Age of Coalition” since 1993 • Strategic processes of the LDP to retain power for ever • Strategy of ‘Pendulum’ • Recruitment of Independents to be LDP members • Dependence on organizations (Industrial Associations, Agricultural Cooperatives • Coalition government • Dependence on popular political leaders in elections • Result and danger of dependence on popular leaders

4. Secret Keys of Koizumi’s Popularity’ (1) • Koizumi is not a simple ‘Populist’ • Political Environment of Koizumi’s coming-up • Prolonged stale-mated situation since the collapse of Japanese economy in 1990 • Anti-professionalism and anti-’Nagatacho’ feeling among the electorate • Expectance of the appearance of ‘fresh’ and ‘strong’ political leader • Koizumi as ‘Periphery Politician’ in the LDP regime

5. Secret Keys of Koizumi’s‘Popularity’ (2) • Importance of the ‘legitimacy of power’ • Mr. Mori’s illegitimate succession of Prime Minister’s position • Koizumi was elected to be President by popular voting of the members of the LDP (Compare with cases of Nakasone, and Takeshita) • Koizumi consciously exploited his legitimate base of power

6. Secret Keys of Koizumi’s‘Popularity’ (3) • Emergence of “Diamond-shaped Society” in advanced countries (See, the figure in the next slide) • Change of Japanese society from “Triangular Society” into “Diamond-shaped Society” • ‘Poor Mass’ is now minority • Uncertainty of the future economic situation in Japan • ‘Egoistic Middle-class’ occupies the majority • Problems of democracy in “Diamond-shaped Society” • How we can establish ‘social justice’ through democratic government

7. Problems of Diamond-Shaped Society

8. Nature and result of Koizumi’s ‘Popular Politics’ • Fundamental nature of Koizumi’s policies • Always stand on the majority-side:Advocate ‘Change’ but never try to destruct ‘Large Vested Interests’ • Subordinate political decisions to the ‘Logic of Economy’ • Government became ‘Profit-oriented Private Business Corporation’ • Koizumi’s way of thinking is contrary to Japanese traditional culture • Result of Koizumi’s ‘Popular Politics’ • Increase of vertical and horizontal ‘disparity’ • More burdens are on the shoulder of the weak (Old people, poor people, agricultural sectors, peripheral areas, and local governments) • How should be the relation of ‘Politics’ toward ‘Economy’ ?

9. The loss of integrity and stability of society under Koizumi cabinet (1)

10. The loss of integrity and stability of society under Koizumi cabinet (2)

11. The loss of integrity and stability of society under Koizumi cabinet (3)

12. Why the LDP could achieve the overwhelming victory in 2005? • Popularity of Prime Minister Koizumi • Concentration toward single issue, i.e. “Privatization of Postal Services” • Influence of terrorism • Emergence of “Single-issue voters” and “Ad hoc Parties”

13. “Single-Issue Voters” and“Ad hoc Parties” • Emergence of “Single-issue voters” • Frequent splits and merges of parties • Influence of the “Age of Coalition” • Voters cannot follow the quick change of politics • Voters pick-up “Single-issue” in their voting • Emergence of “Ad hoc Parties” • Loss of the solid basis of supporters (Change of attitudes of farmers and trade union members) • Accelerating speed of the change of society • Parties cannot stick to the election promises after the election • Political parties exist only for the victory in election in the “Age of Coalition” • Can democracy be responsible in this situation?

14. “Historic Defeat” of the LDP in Upper House election in July 2007 • Existence of “Single-issue Voters” and ‘Pension Problem’ as the single-issue • Misinterpretation of the victory by the LDP in the Lower House election in 2005 • Impact of the electoral system on the result of election • Characteristics of Japanese bi-cameral parliament

15. What is the result of so much difference?

16. ‘The Beginning of New Style Politic’or‘End of the Regime’? • Fukuda’s effort to establish ‘Grand Coalition’ • Existence of ‘Two Third Majority’ in the House of Representatives • The only solution is the change of government from LDP to DPJ? • The impact of the arrest of chief secretary to Mr. Ichiro OZAWA

17. Is re-alignment of Japanese party system possible and probable? • Re-alignment of Japanese party system ahead? • Is it the split of LDP or split of DPJ? • Why not re-alignment of Japanese party system? • Democracy with “Single-issue Voters” and “Ad hoc Parties” in Japan?

18. No more entropy in Japanese politics • Can Aso dissolve the House of Representative? • Can DPJ acquire the absolute majority in coming election of the House of Representatives? • What will be the policy orientations of the DPJ government?

19. Two testimonies • “No more split of the LDP” - Mr. Yoshimi Watanabe(2009.01.08) • “Prime Minister should dissolve the HR in May, but he will not” - Mr. Makoto Koga(2009.03.24)

20. Public opinion after the arrest of the first official secretary of Mr. Ozawa (Asahi News Paper 2009.03.07~08 & 02.19~20)

22. Thank you very much Rei Shiratori