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SOCIETAL SCENARIOS AND VISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM

SOCIETAL SCENARIOS AND VISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM. by Pál TAMÁS [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest]. FRAMES OF THE PROJECT. HUNGARY 2015 PROJEKT Elite-Delphi Representative national survey about perceptions of the future SCENARIOS:

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SOCIETAL SCENARIOS AND VISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM

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  1. SOCIETAL SCENARIOS AND VISIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM by Pál TAMÁS [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest]

  2. FRAMES OF THE PROJECT HUNGARY 2015 PROJEKT • Elite-Delphi • Representative national survey about perceptions of the future SCENARIOS: a. Human capital and learning-centered b. „chamber of trade-oriented” [middle term competitiveness] c. soft growth [sensitivity to social cohesion and sustainibility]

  3. RESEARCH Sustainable Environment Healthy Society Wealth Generation INNOVATION SYSTEMS VALUE Value leads to wealth and is the foundation for a healthy society and a sustainable environment

  4. REFERENCE POINTS OF THE MODELL

  5. STRUCTURE OF THE MODELL

  6. PERCEPTIONS OF THE FUTURE [linear in the elites, chaotic in lower middle class and further down] Levels of uncertainty: A B 1 ? 2 C D 3 Clear-enough future forecast Traditional toolkit Alternate futures Discrete options Game theory Decision analysis Range of futures No natural option Scenario planning True ambiguity No basis for forecast analogies Pattern recognition

  7. LIMITED TIME HORIZONS: UNFORSEEN REFLEXION POINTS

  8. „SCIENCE” IN THE ELITE-DELPHI „KNOWLEDGE-SCIENCE-TECHNOLOGY” - Metaphore of future for the upper-middle class for the • quality of life, • its selt-confidency in the international environment, • Relative autonomies inside of the political class, • Perceptions of the actual Central European geopolitics.

  9. BASIC QUESTIONS • Surviving perceptions of the„progress” paradigm among the public? • Intensity of Hungarian cultural „pessimism”? • Limits of autonomies in strategic decisions • Points and zones of state interventions?

  10. THE ROLE OF NATIONAL SCIENCE SYSTEMS IN THE ACTIVE FORMATION OF THE FUTURE • choices of the research system in active formation of future profiles of the country • „push-pull” points in the national innovation system • Perceived openess of the university and research system • „excellence, or relevance” • Tools and points of intervention

  11. FUTURE CONTURES OF THE RESEARCH SYSTEM, %

  12. SCIENCE POLICY HORIZONS

  13. SHORTAGE OF RESEARCH AND UNIVERSITY PERSONAL DUE TO THE BRAIN DRAIN

  14. GERD FROM 0.95 TO 1.5-2.0%

  15. STRONG HIGH SKILL IMMIGRATION

  16. BUDAPEST IS THE CENTER OF RESEARCH AND INNOVATION FOR EAST-CENTRAL EUROPE

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