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Decision Making in Socio-technological and Global Contexts

Decision Making in Socio-technological and Global Contexts. David L. Ferguson Distinguished Service Professor and Chair Department of Technology and Society Stony Brook University Stony Brook, NY (USA). Decision Making in Socio-technological and Global Contexts. Decision Context

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Decision Making in Socio-technological and Global Contexts

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  1. Decision Making inSocio-technological and Global Contexts David L. Ferguson Distinguished Service Professor and Chair Department of Technology and Society Stony Brook University Stony Brook, NY (USA)

  2. Decision Making in Socio-technological and Global Contexts • Decision Context • Frameworks for Decision Making • Situating Decision Analysis within Broader Decision Contexts • Power and Limitations of Decision Analysis • Implications of Decision Context and Decision Analysis for Socio-technological and Global Problem Solving

  3. Decision Context • Personal, social, and cultural factors greatly influence the way in which we go about making decisions.. • The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (Scott Plous, McGraw-Hill, 1993) • Saving Energy/Growing Jobs – How Environmental Protection Promotes Economic Growth, Profitability, Innovation, and Competition (Goldstein, Bay Tree Publishing, 2007)

  4. Medical Testing • A disease is present in 1/1000 of the population. • Test results are as follows: Has Disease POS. 95% Neg. 5% Free of Disease POS. 1% Neg. 99% • A random member of the population gets a positive result. What is the chance she/he has the disease?

  5. Personal Attributes • Organizational Culture • Societal Influences • Information-intensive Environments • Technology-enabled Freedom • Technology-supported Oppression

  6. Unusual, but wise collaboration • Innovation is not just a luxury, but rather a necessity • Energy/Environment • Science-based Regional Development • Globalization

  7. Decision Frameworks • Cost-benefit Analysis • Decision Trees (expected Value, expected Utility) • Utility Theory • Risk Assessment

  8. Decision Frameworks (continued) • Multi-criteria Decision Analysis • Psychology of Decision Making • Decision Making in Groups • Organizational Structure, Organizational Processes and Decision Making

  9. Rational Decision Making • Evidence-based decision making • Data-driven decision making • Model-supported decision making • Decision-support systems Decision analysis is a systematic approach to sensing decision problems, analyzing decision problems, and using such results in broad decisions contexts so as to focus on the right issues and make the best choices.

  10. Transporting Chickens via a 707 Jet Airplane How many live chickens can be carried? • 707 Jet holds about 180 people • Human Passengers average 170 pounds • Chicken Averages 2 pounds • Weight of Cages for chickens = weight of baggage for people 170 X 180 = 15,300 2 The Jet was in the air for 30 minutes and had to land. WHY?

  11. Applications of Decision Analysis • When to release new products • New research directions • Outsourcing • Location of manufacturing plants • Governmental policies • Medical decisions • Educational decisions

  12. Situating Decision AnalysisWithin Broad Decision Contexts • Case Study of Toyota

  13. Engineering and Technology:Socio-technological and Global Contexts • Energy and Environmental Systems • Biotechnology and Global Health • Infrastructure (maintenance, smart buildings, green buildings, etc.) • Mechatronics • Nanotechnology • Wireless and Information Technology • Discovery and Innovation (including scientific discovery and technological innovation)

  14. Engineering and Technology:Socio-technological and Global Contexts • Education (including (a) education technology, and (b) education in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) • Global Economics • Global Risks/Security • Data-supported Research-supported Practices in Business and Industry (relate to Industry Studies) • Arts and Entertainment • Humanities and Commercial Value (synergy and conflicts, and relationship to STEM) • Workforce of the Future (jobs, preparation)

  15. Power and Limitations of Decision Analysis • Decision analysis demands deliberate, systematic and transparent approaches to decision problems. POWER • Decision analysis relies on models which are inherently abstractions of reality. LIMITATION

  16. Books • The Definitive Drucker, by Elizabeth Haas Edersheim, McGraw- Hill, 2007. • The Google Story, by David A. Vise and Mark Malseed, Delta Trade Paperbacks, 2006. • Saving Energy/Growing Jobs – How Environmental Protection Promotes Economic Growth, Profitability, Innovation, and Competition, by David B. Goldstein, Bay Tree Publishing, 2007.

  17. Books (continued) • The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, by Scott Plous, McGraw-Hill, 1993. • The Wal-Mart Effect, by Charles Fishman, Penguin Books, 2006. • Advances in Decision Analysis, edited by Ward Edwards, Ralph E. Miles, Jr., and Detlof von Winterfeldt.

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