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New Metropolitan Politics in the Mountain West

New Metropolitan Politics in the Mountain West. Robert Lang, Ph.D. Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West/UNLV Department of Sociology Tom Sanchez, Ph.D. Professor and Chair, Urban Affairs and Planning Virginia Tech Christina Nicholas Ph.D. Candidate, UNLV Department of Sociology.

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New Metropolitan Politics in the Mountain West

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  1. New Metropolitan Politics in the Mountain West Robert Lang, Ph.D. Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West/UNLVDepartment of Sociology Tom Sanchez, Ph.D. Professor and Chair, Urban Affairs and Planning Virginia Tech Christina Nicholas Ph.D. Candidate, UNLV Department of Sociology

  2. America Keeps Growing 200 million in 1967 300 million in 2006 400 million in 2039 America adds 100 million people faster than any other nation except India and Pakistan—But faster than China. Most of this gain is in large metros. • Source: Census Bureau

  3. The Big Picture • The New 3D Politics Density + Diversity = Democrats • Election 2008 The Suburbs Ruled! • Looking Ahead to 2010 and Beyond Demography = Destiny? Not always. Especially not when the U.S. is in a deep recession.

  4. The New U.S. Urban Hierarchy

  5. Old vs. New Census Definition

  6. Original Metro Typology • Brookings-County Typology • Is Based on Commuting Patterns, Land Uses, and Growth Rates • Uses Five Categories • Core—Cook, IL • Inner Suburb—De Kalb, GA • Mature Suburb—Fairfax, VA • Emerging Suburb—Douglas, CO • Exurb—Pinal, AZ

  7. Metropolitan Areas • Nearly All Population Gains to Mid Century are in Metropolitan Areas • A Greater Share of Metropolitan Growth Will Occur in Built Up Areas • Republican Rural and Exurban Vote Cannot Offset The Democrats Gains in Urbanizing Suburbs Much Longer

  8. Dems Win 4 in 5 of P.V. Since 1988

  9. Suburban Politics • The 2006 Democratic Gains Made in Urbanizing Suburbs Expanded in 2008 and Helped Obama win the Presidential Election • Democrats now Dominate the Urbanizing Suburbs and are at least Competitive at the Metropolitan Fringe

  10. 2008 Democrats Gain and Loss • Source: USA Today

  11. Red versus Blue (2006)

  12. Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.

  13. Mountain West The Democrats won the Mountain West metro counties in 2004 but won these places by larger margins in 2008 and help flipped three states to the Democrats.

  14. 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections: Republican to Democrat switch by Non-Metropolitan and Metropolitan Counties • Non-Metropolitan • Metropolitan

  15. Southern Mountain West is New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada. Northern Mountain West is Colorado, Idaho, and Utah.

  16. Metropolitan votes failed to tip the state to Democrats in 2004.

  17. Thank you.

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