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Analysis of Midwest Workforce Dynamics and Economic Trends

This overview explores the characteristics and challenges of the Midwest workforce as discussed in the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's report from November 21, 2002. Key features include high-income levels, a strong manufacturing presence, and educational attainment disparities. The region has experienced out-migration of educated youth, while rural towns face economic struggles. The historical context highlights the transition to high-income status through agriculture and manufacturing. The report also addresses workforce participation, economic recovery prospects, and strategies for sustaining growth in the Midwest.

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Analysis of Midwest Workforce Dynamics and Economic Trends

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  1. Overview of Midwest Workforce Bill Testa Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago November 21, 2002

  2. Workforce features • Marginally high income/high wage region • A “blue-collar” region; manufacturing concentration”

  3. Region of manufacturing

  4. Region of manufacturing

  5. Workforce features • Education attainment--higher HS and HS-plus; lower at “college/college-plus”

  6. Educational attainment 1990

  7. Workforce features • Out-migration led by younger and more educated. • Domestic in-migration rates lower (often negative); immigration rates positive but lower

  8. Foreign Born Population in MW Metro areas

  9. Workforce features • Urban/rural split similar to U.S. • Large cities among most segregated

  10. Seventh District: Currentunemployment rates

  11. Workforce features • Ag-related employment close to U.S. average; many rural towns struggling • Manufacturing decentralizing to rural towns, but income gains are paltry • Age profile similar on average--older in rural areas, younger in large urban areas

  12. Historic perspective • Region became high-income during late 19th and early 20th century through agriculture, manufacturing & urbanization • Sources of high wealth and sustainability? • --Natural resources: transport, energy, land • --Agglomeration • --Market structure? (union, oligopoly, • dis-equilibrium)

  13. Fall and rise (and fall?) • Per capita income • Midwest share of nation’s manufacturing • Employment growth

  14. Per capita income vs. U.S.

  15. MW manufacturing job share of the U.S

  16. Employment growth

  17. Midwest recovery: Transitory? • Restructuring fundamentals • --New technologies • --Firm re-structuring/industry shifts • Idiosycratic factors • --S & L crisis • --Defense build-down/base closings • --Falling dollar • --Low energy prices

  18. Recovery: Participation not wages (employ/population)

  19. Recovery: Earnings/worker vs.income per capita

  20. The “participation recovery:” To be repeated? (unemployment)

  21. Implications and (other) issues • How much will MW economic growth be regained/sustained? • High average incomes? • Welfare-to-work population re-employed? • Work force “shortages” and growth • impediments?

  22. Implications and (other issues) • How productive the Midwest workforce? • Can MW “Development” be accomplished? • --High tech/creative class occupations and • firms.

  23. Policies/priorities for the Midwest? • Training: where to focus? (jobs to match?) • Job market efficiency (spatial and otherwise) • Immigration & assimilation • Facilitating an older/diverse work force • Rural economic transition • Prison released population issues

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