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Lower Lakes and Murray River Modelling: Virtual Weir Presentation Discussion

This presentation discusses existing models for the Lower Lakes and Murray River, including 2D RMA and 3D ELCOM simulations. It covers model setup, validation, results, and uncertainties related to virtual and partial weirs. Key objectives are to match observed hydrodynamics, represent key processes, and understand model uncertainties, particularly concerning salinity and water levels. Future prognostic simulations also consider high evaporation rates and border allocation variations until the end of 2010 with visual animations of predicted outcomes, emphasizing the need for ongoing model improvement.

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Lower Lakes and Murray River Modelling: Virtual Weir Presentation Discussion

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  1. Lower Lakes and Murray River Modelling(Virtual Weir Presentation / Discussion) Canberra 11 February 2009

  2. To be Discussed • Existing Modelling: • RMA (2D) and ELCOM (3D) Modelling of Virtual and Partial Weir Simulations • Model Setup • Model Validation • Model Results & Animations • Model Uncertainty • Empirical Calculations: • Destratification / Richardson Number Calculations • Seiche Volumes

  3. Model Setup/Extents • RMA 2D (Blue) : All areas upstream of Tidal Barrages & Downstream of Lock 1, Lake Albert disconnected • ELCOM 3D (Green) : From Pomanda Island (upstream of weir location) to Murray Bridge • RMA simulation executed first, then results fed to ELCOM (U/S & D/S Boundaries)

  4. Model Validation • Validation period 1/1/2008 – 14/7/2008 • Objectives: • Best match observed hydrodynamics (WL) and salinity • Ensure key processes appropriately represented • Understanding of model uncertainty • Key Uncertainties • Additional salt load along length of River • Additional irrigation demands / groundwater losses?

  5. Predicted Water Levels – Poltalloch Plains

  6. Predicted River Salinity – Woods Point

  7. Predicted Lake Salinity – Spatial Validation

  8. Predicted Lake Salinity – Spatial Validation

  9. Predicted 3D River Salinity – Wellington

  10. Predicted 3D River Temperature – Wellington

  11. Comparison Measured vs Modelled River Salinity

  12. 2 yr “Prognostic Simulations” • Examining what may happen in the future, given continuing high net evaporation (1982) levels, and variations in the South Australia’s border allocation (Border Allocations of 696, 796 and 896 GL/yr), through to the end of 2010. • Simulations aimed at maintaining Lake Level at -1.3mAHD. • Salt water introduced through Goolwa Barrage in October 2009. • Stop logs positioned by-monthly based on water level balance calculation.

  13. Predicted Water Levels – Lake Alexandrina

  14. Timeseries Locations – Lake Alexandrina

  15. Predicted Lake (2D) Salinities – Point 1

  16. Predicted Lake (2D) Salinities – Point 5

  17. Predicted Lake (2D) Salinities – Point 6

  18. Predicted River (3D) Salinities – Wellington

  19. Predicted River (3D) Salinities – Tailem Bend

  20. Predicted River (3D) Salinities – Swanport

  21. Animation: Lower Lakes 696 GL/yr

  22. Animation: Lower Lakes 696 GL/yr

  23. Animation: River (696 GL/yr)

  24. Animation: River (696 GL/yr)

  25. Animation: River (796 GL/yr)

  26. Animation: River (796 GL/yr)

  27. Animation: River (896 GL/yr)

  28. Animation: River (896 GL/yr)

  29. Comparison at End 2010 696 GL/yr 796 GL/yr 896 GL/yr

  30. Uncertainty • Model can still be improved • Validation only currently till Mid July 2008 (no destratification period) • No validation data for low level and high salt available • Uses 1 year (2007) wind (cannot predict future wind conditions) • Wind spatially homogenous

  31. Partial Closure Weir Simulations • No Weir • 1100m Gap • 700m Gap • 300m Gap • 100m Gap

  32. Simulated Water Level in Lake Alexandrina

  33. Simulated Salinity (ppt) Wellington Bed

  34. Pomanda Island Lake Alexandrina N River Channel Pomanda Embayment Bathymetry

  35. Other Info

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