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Gretchen C. Schmauder 1,2 , John N. Louie 1,3 ,

Simulation of Seismic-Wave Propagation Through the Lake Tahoe Basin, Calif.-Nevada: A Scenario Approach to Probabilistic Shaking Hazard. Gretchen C. Schmauder 1,2 , John N. Louie 1,3 , Satish Pullammanappallil 2 , Kyle Gray 1 , Kevin McBean 1 , Alexa McBean 1 , & Graham M. Kent 1

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Gretchen C. Schmauder 1,2 , John N. Louie 1,3 ,

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  1. Simulation of Seismic-Wave PropagationThrough the Lake Tahoe Basin,Calif.-Nevada: A Scenario Approach toProbabilistic Shaking Hazard Gretchen C. Schmauder1,2, John N. Louie1,3, Satish Pullammanappallil2, Kyle Gray1, Kevin McBean1, AlexaMcBean1, & Graham M. Kent1 Nevada Seismological Lab. & Dept. Geol. Sci. & Engin., Univ. of Nevada, Reno NV, USA Optim SDS, 200 S. Virginia St. Suite 560, Reno, NV USA; gretchens@optimsds.com visiting Victoria University of Wellington to August 2014 Thanks to: J. M. Maloney (Univ. of Calif. San Diego); Edgetech; Watershed Sciences; Tahoe Regional Planning Agency; U.S. Forest Service crack.seismo.unr.edu/NSZ

  2. 1) FindingEarthquake Source Faults: • Marine CHIRP under Lake Tahoe • Dense LiDAR under trees • Results: • Only 3 faults! • (Pyramid L. has 100s) • All normal, N-strike, E-dip, E-W extension • M7.5 events in record SF LV LA

  3. CHIRP images sediments to 70 m below lake bottom with 25 cm resolution Edgetech acoustic Compressed High Intensity Radar Pulse (CHIRP) With Univ. of California, San Diego Slide/gravity deposits seen throughout Tahoe; dated & correlated by Shane Smith.

  4. Watershed Sciences airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) imagery over 232,000 acres in the Tahoe basin

  5. 2) Gravity and ReMi™ Assess Wave Trapping in Basins, and Geotechnical Amplification Assembled Basin Thickness

  6. Assembled Vs30 Assembled Vs30 Map 200-m Grid Vs

  7. 3) Shake- Zoning Scenario Predictions Using Physics and Geology Intense 3D basin effects PGV Shaking Map     NSZWTDPF Rupture from South • Large motions for: • Steep slopes • Small subbasins

  8. How to explain hazard to the community?4) Probabilistic Mapping with ShakeZoning Scenarios Frankel et al. USGS Seattle Basin – Annual Probability of Exceedance λ: • Sum up a limited number of scenarios: faults; rupture directivities. • Examine Annual Rate of Exceedance (A.R.E.) of μ0=30 cm/s. • Conflate PGV > 30 cm/s with higher A.R.E.; <30 cm/s, lower A.R.E.

  9. Shaking Map to Hazard Map PGVrate WTDPF So. Rupture, One Scenario PGV rate 7x10-5/year PGV Shaking Map A.R.E. Map 

  10. Now add up the A.R.E.s for the 6 fault scenarios:Result: a simple tool promoting resilience

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