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Climate Change, Migration and Political Insurgency

Climate Change, Migration and Political Insurgency. The „ other “ Arab Spring? The Hamburg Conference, July 16-18 2013, Hamburg University.

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Climate Change, Migration and Political Insurgency

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  1. Climate Change, Migration and Political Insurgency The „other“ Arab Spring? The Hamburg Conference, July 16-18 2013, Hamburg University Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute forPeace Research and Security Policyat Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de

  2. First & foremost, ArabAwakening = reactionto out oftouch, brutal regimes. Noprovendirectcausalitybetweeneffectsofclimatechangeand „Arab Spring“. • However: MENA isalreadyexperiencingeffectsofanthropogenicclimatechange, likeextendeddroughts, increasedwaterscarcityanddecreasingprecipitation. • Hypothesis 1: Such stressorscombinedwithdeficiencies in resourcemanagement, politicalinclusionmechanismsandconflictmitigationstrategiescouldpotentiallyignitealready volatile environments. Potential accelerant, threatmultiplier • Variables: managementpractices, institutionalset-up, infrastructure, economicandpoliticalcontext, climatechangeeffects, precipitation etc. • Climate Change andtheArabAwakening Changingweather, changing power? Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute forPeace Research and Security Policyat Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de

  3. Climate Change andtheArabAwakening • Migration canfunctionaseffective adaptive strategyin timesof environmental changeand stress, likelanddegradation, waterscarcity, drought etc. Leaving after lossoflivelihoodcanbe a meanstomitigatehardship. • However, massmigration due tolossoflivelihoodcould also contributetosocialandpoliticalunrestand turn out tobe a threatmultiplier in certaincircumstances. • Hypothesis 2: Massmigrationmovementsfuelledthe different politicalinsurgencies in the MENA. • Method: Interviews, Critical Discourse Analysis • Case Studies: Egypt, Syria, Jordan Migration – CopingStrategygone wild? Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute forPeace Research and Security Policyat Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de

  4. Climate in the MENA Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute forPeace Research and Security Policyat Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de

  5. Case Study Syria Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute forPeace Research and Security Policyat Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de

  6. Case Study Syria • • AuthoritarianruleunderBashar al-Assad from 2000 onwards declineofBa‘thparty, focus on securityapparatusand „cronycapitalists“, repressionof liberal-secularas well asKurdishopposition • • forcedeconomicliberalisation subventionandexpensecutsattheexpenseofmiddleandworkingclass; considerablegrowthof rural-urban divide (Damascusand Aleppo vs. Rest) • • Islamisation ofsociety regimelegitimation; effectsofIraq war • • drought 2006-10  rural exodus, newtentandsatellitetowns (aroundDamascusand in the South) Interlacedregimepolitical, socio-economicandclimaticconditionspriortooutbreak Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute forPeace Research and Security Policyat Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de

  7. Case Study Syria Conflictdynamics Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute forPeace Research and Security Policyat Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de

  8. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Dr. Christiane J. Fröhlich, Institute forPeace Research and Security Policyat Hamburg University, www.ifsh.de www.christianefroehlich.de

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