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Forest Fire Investing

Forest Fire Investing

phinupham
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Forest Fire Investing

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  1. Forest Fire InvestingBy PhinUpham

  2. Investing From a Global Perspective • See the forest rather than the trees • Blend different lenses to see what others are not • Competition between experts: tallest tree in a forest was in 10 years? • A botanist: fastest growing • An immunologist: tree with disease • A pedologist: tree rooted in most fertile ground • Are they all wrong? • A layman: stepped back and saw possibility of a forest fire • Layman chooses tree alone in the field. • What happens if this crisis breaks on a global scale? • What is the most likely equivalent of a global forest fire?

  3. This Too Shall NOT Pass • Debt of global recession • Might not pass until ugly adjustments are made • Great Depression ended with WWII • War effort lifted US, drove economy • If that crisis was ended by a world war could this one too?

  4. Obvious Hotspots • Israel: At odds with near-nuclear Iran. • What will the cascade of responses to this be? • Former Soviet and Baltic States: discontent as currencies are under pressure • China: Escalating protests • Problems are significant. • “You make us rich, you can have power” tested.

  5. Area of Deep Concern • Totalitarian countries: oil exporters who have high marginal costs. • Middle East is fine • Wealthy nations like Canada will be fine • Troubling examples: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. • Marginal cost close to $100

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