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Overview CARBOOCEAN

EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 3rd Annual Meeting – Bremen Germany 4-7 December 2007. Overview CARBOOCEAN.

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Overview CARBOOCEAN

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  1. EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 3rd Annual Meeting – Bremen Germany 4-7 December 2007 Overview CARBOOCEAN

  2. Anthropogenic pCO2 increase in the atmosphere Historical atmospheric CO2 record from ice core, Siple Station, Antarctica 340 260 1700 2000 Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1994. Historical CO2 record from the Siple Station ice core. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A

  3. Anthropogenic pCO2 increase in the atmosphere Mauna Loa CO2 record, 50th anniversary!!! Historical atmospheric CO2 record from ice core, Siple Station, Antarctica 340 260 1700 2000 Neftel, A., H. Friedli, E. Moor, H. Lötscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1994. Historical CO2 record from the Siple Station ice core. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A

  4. Previous standard IPCC emission scenarios have been to optimistic with respect to human behaviour: Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007 (gloabl carbon project) And the related climate projections did not yet include the positive greeenhouse gas feedbacks. We have to get ready for the next generation of realistic scenarios and include important feedback processes in Earth system models.

  5. System dynamics Boundary conditions Objective 4: Assessment of feedbacks Objective 2: Long term assessment Objective 3: Assessment of Regional European Contribution Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IP Guiding sustainable development management CO2 emmisions Objective 5: Prediction, future assessment Initial conditions Objective 1: Short-term assessment

  6. Core Theme 1: North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO2 air-sea exchange Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial Atlantic and Southern Ocean carbon inventory changes Kick-Off Meeting Final Workshop Over-arching activity: Prediction Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks 0 19 37 55 60 Month Description Nowcast and Synopsis and Understanding Phase: Prediction Sustainment

  7. Indications for a decrease in sink strength: North Atlantic Hovmüller plots of pCO2 (μatm) (defined as the atmosphere minus sea surface): 1990s high 2000s lower Schuster & Watson, JGR, 2007

  8. Indications for a decrease in sink strength: North Atlantic Evolution of oceanic and atmospheric CO2 in the subpolar gyre: From Corbiere et al (2007) , Tellus + new data 2004-2006

  9. Air-sea CO2 flux changes also in Southern Ocean! Sink decrease inferred from observations and modelling ! obs. atm. CO2 + ocean impulse response uptake From: LeQuéré et al., 2007, Science, Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change daily NCEP forcing constant 1967 forcing

  10. Potential alterations in biological cycling of carbon with circulation and pCO2 change: 350 μatm (green)700 μatm (grey)1050 μatm (red) Mesocosm experiments at differing atmospheric pCO2: ”Captering natural ecosystem communities in plastic bags and watching their behavior for changes in forcing under controlled conditions” Apparent decrease of dis-solved inorganic C with pCO2 Apparent increase of organically bound C with pCO2 Apparent increase of nutrient utilisiation efficiency with pCO2 Riebesell et al., nature, 2007 Mesocosm facilities at Espegrend, Bergen

  11. “Nowcast” and prediction: Are current trends temporary? How to sustain observations? Are necessary processes well enough represented? How trustworthy are prognostic models? What guardrails can we give to policy makers and society in general?

  12. Reducing uncertainties in marine uptake of anthropogenic CO2: Can we in fact reduce these uncertainties? Or are we only “more certain about the uncertainties”? EGU General Assembly Vienna, Austria, March 2008: Session BG3.1 (co-listed under Biogeosciences, Ocean Sciences, and Climate): “Reducing uncertainties in the quantification of the oceanic sink for anthropogenic carbon (CARBOOCEAN)” (Conveners: C. Heinze, D. Bakker, D. Wallace) What service can we now and in near future give to society? Time is pressing!

  13. OUTREACH & EDUCATION:

  14. ASSESSMENT: OUTREACH & EDUCATION: IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage.

  15. ASSESSMENT: OUTREACH & EDUCATION: IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage. DISSEMINATION (horizontal, vertical):

  16. ASSESSMENT: OUTREACH & EDUCATION: IPCC AR4: At least 4 lead authors and 1 review editor. 1 coord. Lead author for special report on C storage. DISSEMINATION (horizontal, vertical): 2007 InfoWorld 100 Award to Alfred Wegener Institute & Center for Marine Environmental Sciences MARUM DATA SYNTHESIS:

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