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The Punctuated Equilibrium of the Energy Regime Complex

The Punctuated Equilibrium of the Energy Regime Complex . Lauren Bleakney PEI Grand Energy Challenge. Sponsorship and Overview. Woodrow Wilson School Robert O. Keohane , Jeff D. Colgan , Thijs Van de Graaf

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The Punctuated Equilibrium of the Energy Regime Complex

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  1. The Punctuated Equilibrium of the Energy Regime Complex Lauren Bleakney PEI Grand Energy Challenge

  2. Sponsorship and Overview • Woodrow Wilson School • Robert O. Keohane, Jeff D. Colgan, Thijs Van de Graaf • Goal: Contribute data and analysis to pre-publication scholarly article on the evolution of the energy regime complex

  3. Energy Regime Complex • What is a regime complex? • Collection of organizations governing the trade and norms in a sector (here: energy trade, specifically oil) • Organizations involved in the regime complex: OPEC, IRENA, IAEA, OECD, IEA, G7, IEF, ECT, IPEEC, Oil exporters and importers

  4. Measuring Dissatisfaction • Differentiate between dissatisfaction of Importers and dissatisfaction of Exporters • Dissatisfaction measured in change in oil prices, expressed as percent change from previous year • Level of dissatisfaction (magnitude of price change) determines response

  5. Institutional Responses to Dissatisfaction • The creation of new organizations and links between organizations • The inclusion of major new members—that is, members with the potential to reshape the organization • Major internal structural changes, such as new operational units or significant changes in voting weights

  6. Structure of Innovation

  7. Importer Dissatisfaction: 1973-4 • 1973-1974 OPEC Producing 53.9% of total world output • Preceded by nationalization of oil in much of MENA • 1974 oil revenues increase by 191% • Western response: • establishment of IEA; Strategic Petroleum Reserve • G7 • OLADE • “Sticky” lagging innovation: • Efficiency • Shift to Coal

  8. Importer Dissatisfaction: 2003-2010 • Oil revenues increased every year from 2003-2010, excepting 2009 • IPEEC (International Partnership for Energy Efficiency Cooperation) established • IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency) established

  9. My Focus: OPEC

  10. Periods of OPEC Dissatisfaction • 1980s, dissatisfaction peaking in 1986 • Heterogeneous production preferences • Reform driven by Saudi Arabia - flooded market • Switch to production quotas (from price setting) • 1998 • OPEC tightens adherence to production quotas • Restricts total production • Forges relationships with non-OPEC actors: Russia, EU • 2010 • Still to be seen

  11. Additional Findings • The role of Saudi Arabia as a unilateral actor within OPEC • Failed attempts at linkages between OPEC and EU, Russia, China • OPEC as a blame-shifting institution • Shifts blame to Member Countries • Shifts blame to importing countries and non-OPEC exporters • Rhetoric of antagonistic relationship between developed and developing countries

  12. Skills and Knowledge Gained • Institutional innovation; OPEC; Global Economy • Use of Princeton library, personnel, and database resources • Incorporation of quantitative analysis into social science studies • Improved analytical abilities and argument-mapping • Time management

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