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Watch Out!

SOCIAL APPLICATIONS FOR ENHANCED READINESS (SAFER) PROGRAM – WESTERN REGION CONFERENCE. Watch Out!. IMPROVING RISK COMMUNICATION. BETTY HEARN MORROW MAY 19, 2010 MARRIOTT CITY CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH. What makes people decide to respond to a warning message?. Believe it is real

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Watch Out!

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  1. SOCIAL APPLICATIONS FOR ENHANCED READINESS (SAFER) PROGRAM – WESTERN REGION CONFERENCE Watch Out! IMPROVING RISK COMMUNICATION BETTY HEARN MORROW MAY 19, 2010 MARRIOTT CITY CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

  2. What makes people decide to respond to a warning message? • Believe it is real • Fear for personal safety • Fear for safety of loved ones • Knowledge about how to respond • Resources to respond LEVEL OF RISK IS UNACCEPTABLE AND THEY CAN DO SOMETHING TO REDUCE IT

  3. What makes people not respond to a warning message? • Didn’t hear it • Didn’t believe it • Didn’t understand it • Didn’t think it pertained to them • Didn’t know what to do • Weren’t able to do it

  4. 238 Deaths

  5. Did they understand the forecast? COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

  6. Why? • Surge forecast not emphasized enough? • Too much emphasis on wind? • Lack of understanding of surge potential? • Disbelief? • Lack of experience? • False experience? • Didn’t think it applied to them? • ?

  7. Katrina Surge Message Lost

  8. How can the level of risk be communicated to promote appropriate action? Prepare? Shelter in Place? Evacuate?

  9. NOAA Coastal Services CenterRISK COMMUNICATION PROJECT • Literature Review • Best Practices Interviews

  10. RISK: Complex concept difficult to communicate in ways that are convincing and lead to good decisions Hurricane Ike and Galveston Hurricane Floyd

  11. Concept of Risk:Social Construction Arises out of social interactions involving: • Values • Emotions • Experiences

  12. Knowledgeis important, but we weigh evidence from experiencemore Perceived Risk ≠ Hazard x Exposure x Probability

  13. Fear often does not reflect object reality as defined by experts “the risks that kill you are not necessarily the risks that anger and frighten you” Peter Sandman Risk = Hazards + Outrage

  14. Perception is everything! Perceived risk is the same as real risk

  15. Several theories attempt to explain how risk perceptions are developed: • Psychometric Models • Cultural Risk Theory • Social Amplification • Mental Models

  16. Coping with a Complex World… Try to Find Patterns “What do I know that will help me understand this?”

  17. Coping with a Complex World… Use Heuristics (short cuts) such as: Optimism Bias “Won’t happen to me” Availability “Hasn’t happened to me” Note: Even forecasters use heuristics - Doswell III, Charles A. (2004) Weather Forecasting by Humans – Heuristics and Decision Making. Weather and Forecasting 19:1115-1126

  18. Weighing the chances… Decisions made about risk are largely insensitive to changes in probability Emotions play a major role

  19. What Are the Myths? What incorrect messages are out there? Keep a window open during hurricanes, tornadoes.. Highway underpasses offer good refuge from tornadoes Tornadoes don’t cross rivers New York doesn’t get hurricanes Lightning never strikes the same place twice If the water starts rising, I’ll just leave Others?

  20. First Acknowledge Their Current Viewpoint “When talking to people who are misinformed, there’s a two-step process for reeducating them. Step 1 is to validate that it’s reasonable to think that. And then on step 2, take them on a journey from their current opinion to the one you want them to hold.” Peter Sandman

  21. Just Because It CAN Happen, Doesn’t Mean it WILL … USUALLY a False Alarm Creates Complacency In Fact, It Usually Doesn’t!

  22. What Message Did That Give?

  23. What Factors Tend toMake Risk Unacceptable? • RARE or Unfamiliar • EVENTvs. diffused over time • IMPOSED vs. voluntary • Not under individual’s control

  24. What Makes Risk Unacceptable? • Unfairly distributed • Affects children • Man-made hazard vs. natural hazard

  25. RISK COMMUNICATION MODEL ABILITY TO UNDERSTAND CAPACITY TO ACT INVOLVEMENTDESIRE FOR OR INTEREST INFORMATION RELEVANCE TO STAKEHOLDER INTENTION TO ACT MESSAGE EVALUATION FACTORS MESSAGE EFFECTS FACTORS Adapted from Earle, T.C. and G. Cvetkovich. 1990. “The effects of involvement, relevance and ability on risk communication effectiveness. Pp. 271-89 in Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North Holland: Elsevier Science.

  26. Effective risk communication requires in-depth knowledge about the audience • Values • Needs • Interests • Experiences • Barriers • Social Norms

  27. NEED TO UNDERSTAND CONTEXT Conditions Under Which Decisions Are Made How They Vary Among Groups Weather-Related Risk May Be Least of Their Worries Community Involvement Quantitative surveys Qualitative focus groups Observations

  28. County Snapshots Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Tool

  29. NEED TO PERSONALIZE IT! Coastal Inundation Toolkit CanVis Visualization Software NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource www.csc.noaa.gov/inundation

  30. Personalize The Message

  31. Many Messages Targeted To Specific Groups “To reach and influence audiences effectively, campaigns must be targeted on the basis of audiences’ interests, values, and current behavioral patterns.”Edward Maibach Youth Homeowners Elderly Renters Families with children Cultural groups

  32. Multiple Messages Multiple Channels • Use of Technologies Survey • Charleston, SC (2008) • 70% have cell phones • 67% over age 65 have cell phones • 60% said they would use cell phone to contact family in emergency • 56% under age 29 use texting • 6% over 65 used texting Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf

  33. Multiple Messages Multiple Channels • Use of Technologies Survey • Charleston, SC (2008) • 60% have computers in home (NSD related to age) • 64% whites have computers in home • 52% blacks have computers in home • 31% with income less than $20,000 know how to use a computer • 23% have NOAA weather radio Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Oak Ridge Associated Universities. www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf

  34. Level of Outrage High Low Level of Hazard RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES Low High Source: Peter Sandman

  35. PRECAUTION ADVOCACY :REACHING APATHETIC PEOPLE • Know your audience • Personalize the message • NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources: • Mapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census Data • Introduction to Conducting Focus Groups • Introduction to Survey Design & Delivery

  36. PRECAUTION ADVOCACY :REACHING APATHETIC PEOPLE • Appeal to their values, needs, social norms • Appeal to emotions, including fear • Have clear, concise, short message • Use concrete examples • Use trusted messengers • Provide an action they can do

  37. Some People Are Risk Takers • Gamblers • Thrill Seekers • Youth • Men!

  38. RISK COMMUNICATION RESOURCES Morrow, Betty Hearn. 2009. Improving Coastal Risk Communication: Guidance from the Literature. Report prepared for NOAA’s Coastal Service Center, Charleston, SC. Available at: www.csc.noaa.gov/Risk_Behavior_&_Communication_Report.pdf . Oak Ridge Associated Universities. Providing Access to Resilience-Enhancing Technologies for Disadvantaged Communities and Vulnerable Populations. Downloadable at: www.orau.org/university-partnerships/files/The-PARET-Report.pdf. • Other NOAA Coastal Services Center Social Science Resources: • Mapping Socio-Economic Variables Using 2000 Census Data • Introduction to Conducting Focus Groups • Introduction to Survey Design & Delivery • Introduction to Stakeholder Participation • Stakeholder Engagement Strategies for Participatory Mapping CanVis Visualization Software, NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource. Available at: www.csc.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/inundation. Earle, T.C. and G. Cvetkovich. 1990. “The Effects Of Involvement, Relevance And Ability On Risk Communication Effectiveness.” Pp. 271-89 in Contemporary Issues in Decision Making. North Holland: Elsevier Science. Mailbach, Edward C. and Roxanne Louiselle Parrott (eds). 1995. Designing Health Messages: Approaches from Communication Theory and Public Health Practice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. McKenzie-Mohr, Doug. Fostering Sustainable Behavior : Community-Based Social Marketing. Available at: www.cbsm.com Sandman, Peter. Risk = Hazard + Outrage. www.psandman.com/index.htm Betty Morrow betty@bmorrow.com

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