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The Long Reach of Early Math Skills

The Long Reach of Early Math Skills. Greg J. Duncan University of California, Irvine Robert Siegler Carnegie Mellon University. Gaps in Early Math Skills. The Problem Starts in the Preschool Period (Starkey et al., 2004). % Correct.

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The Long Reach of Early Math Skills

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  1. The Long Reach of Early Math Skills Greg J. Duncan University of California, Irvine Robert Siegler Carnegie Mellon University

  2. Gaps in Early Math Skills

  3. The Problem Starts in the Preschool Period (Starkey et al., 2004) % Correct

  4. Math Gaps Persists Across Elementary School (Duncan and Magnuson, 2011) Gaps in SAT-type units

  5. Math Gaps Persists Across Elementary School (Duncan and Magnuson, 2011) Gaps in SAT-type units

  6. Math gaps are biggest in the United States (OECD, 1992) Low High

  7. Do Math Gaps Matter?

  8. School readiness as defined by kindergarten teachers: • able to communicate thoughts & needs verbally • enthusiastic and curious in approaching new activities • knowing how to sit still and pay attention • Only 10% thought that it was important that children starting school know numbers and the alphabet

  9. School readiness according to George W. Bush: • “On the first day of school, children need to know letters and numbers. They need a strong vocabulary...These are the building blocks of learning, and this nation must provide them.”

  10. School readiness as defined by Neurons to Neighborhoods: • “[T]he elements of early intervention programs that enhance social and emotional development are just as important as the components that enhance linguistic and cognitive competence” (Shonkoff and Phillips, 2000: 398-99)

  11. Our question: • What are the roles of math, reading, attention and socioemotional skills for later child success?

  12. A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors

  13. A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors

  14. A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors

  15. School-entry Skills & Later Achievement • Six longitudinal datasets • School entry measures of skills and behaviors • Outcomes: Reading and math achievement in 1st through 8th grade • Test scores and teacher reports • Covariates: Family SES, child and (in 1 of the 6) mother’s cognitive skills (Duncan et al., 2007)

  16. In other words:let’s have a horse race between early academic skills and behavior and see which ones win

  17. Effects on later achievement

  18. Effects on later achievement

  19. Power of early math skills • Math impacts are adjusted for IQ differences • Early math predicts later reading scores as much as early reading does!

  20. Now let’s look beyond school entry: What problems in K-5 best predict dropout, college, etc.

  21. Double Jeopardy: Hernandez (2012) • One in Six Children Who Are Not Reading Proficiently in Third Grade Fail to Graduate from High School On Time, Four Times the Rate for Children with Proficient Third-Grade Reading Skills

  22. Persistent early school problems and adolescent attainment • Math problems • Reading problems • Attention problems • Anti-social behavior problems • Mental health problems (Duncan and Magnuson, 2011)

  23. Simple associations are even more dramatic: • Children with persistent reading problems were: • 32 percentage points less likely to graduate high school • 36 percentage points less likely to attend college • Children with persistent math problems were: • 32 percentage points less likely to graduate high school • 44 percentage points less likely to attend college

  24. Effects of persistent K-5 problems on ever attending college(average = 43%)

  25. Effects of persistent K-5 problems on ever attending college(average = 43%)

  26. Effects of age 14-16 skills and behaviors on earnings (males only)

  27. Effects of age 14-16 skills and behaviors on earnings (males only)

  28. Math matters a lot • School entry math predicts later school success • Avoiding persistent math problems in K-5 best predicts college attendance • Math achievement in adolescence predicts labor market success

  29. Why math? (preliminary) • Structural story: • teachers and schools provide extra opportunities for early math achievers? • moderate math skills keeps kids out of special education?

  30. Why math (con’t)? • Motivational story: • Math feedback is very concrete? • Kids who don’t master math don’t think they are good at math or good at school?

  31. What can be done about it?We need to know more about what works to promote early math proficiency

  32. gduncan@uci.edu

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