Building a Multimodal Comprehensive Truck/Freight Modeling for Los Angeles Metropolitan Area

1. Building a Multimodal Comprehensive Truck/Freight Modeling for Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Presented by Luke Cheng, Regional Vice President – Asia Pacific, Citilabs Inc. Formerly MTA Transportation Planning Manager

2. MTA’S ROLES Transit Operator/Infrastructure Builder: • 2,660 buses (as of Sep. 04) • 73 miles of Metro Rail service • 423 lane-miles of HOV lane Countywide Planning/Programming: • Commuter rail, transit, highways, arterial streets, bikeways, pedestrian connections, and demand reduction strategies.

3. Southern California’s Freight Infrastructure POLA/POLB – 1st & 2nd among all US Container Ports, 35% of all waterborne cargo, 11.8M TEU in 2003, 3rd in the world if combined. LAX – 3rd in the nation, 6th in the world in cargo volume (1.8M tons in 2003) UP & BNSF – Class I R/R, with 6 intermodal terminals (Hobart Yard, the largest, handled over 1.0M lift a year) 8900 – Lane-Miles of Freeways (many sections carrying over 20K trucks daily) 15000 – Miles of Major Arterials

4. FUTURE GROWTH TRENDS Southern California’s Population will grow 22%: 2000-2020 In the mean time, freight movement will grow : 600 25 527 1995 21.5 500 2020 20 18.9 65% Increase 16.7 400 Millions of Tons 319 15 309 300 10 Millions 240% Increase 200 304% Increase 91 5 100 8.9 2.2 0 0 2000 2010 2020 Rail Air Truck Source: California Dept. of Finance Source: Southern California Association of Governments

5. 2001 LONG RANG TRANSPORTATION PLAN On Freight/Truck Movement - • Identified as an important issue • Need clearly defined strategy to accommodate anticipated freight growth • Take proactive role in working with all private and public stakeholders to develop solutions

6. NEED BETTER FREIGHT PLANNING TOOLS • Traditional Travel Demand Model is for forecasting passenger traffic, not suitable for modeling freight/truck traffic • Freight/truck traffic occupies a substantial share of infrastructure capacity • Actual freight / truck movement data is required to build a good freight/truck model • Planners need better understanding and knowledge of how and why freight / truck move

7. MTA’S GOAL Develop an Innovative Multimodal Comprehensive Truck/Freight Movement Model

8. TRUCK/FREIGHT MODELING Why Truck/Freight? --- Not all trucks are carrying freight and not all freight is on truck. Movement To/From Sea Ports Movement To/From Airports All Non-Port/Airport Related Movement • Warehouse/Distribution center • Local delivery truck trips • Service oriented truck trips

9. Multimodal Comprehensive Truck/Freight Model ? ? ? Port/Airport Sub Model Non Port/Airport Sub Model External Cordon Airport Warehouse/DC Sea Port Intermodal Rail Yard Sub-model No. 1 LTL Terminal POLA LAX Sub-model No. 2 Rail ICTF Manufacturer POLB ONT Sub-model No. 3 Highway Hobart Retailer Industry FedEx/UPS Gasoline Distributor E. LA Sub-model No. N San Bernardino Ready Mixed Concrete (Overlap) MODEL FRAMEWORK

10. MODEL CHARACTERISTICS Port/Airport Related Movement: • Comparatively Simpler • Limited number of trip generators (ports, airports, rail intermodal yards) • Out-of-region O/D => External cordon stations of regional highway/rail networks • Past effort have dealt with – • POLA/LB Transportation Study • SCAG Truck Count Study • Airport Master Plan, … • Beyond Warehouse/DC – Unknown

11. MODEL CHARACTERISTICS Non-Port/Airport Related Movement: • More Complex • numerous origins & destinations • multiple distinct types of operation: LTL, TL, local delivery, construction related, service oriented, … • Has not been analyzed systematically to date • Also involve Warehouse/DC

12. COMPENDIUM OF TRUCK/FREIGHT INFORMATION One-stop reference for all truck/freight related Information for the Greater Los Angeles Metropolitan Area’ – • Major freight transportation facility • Freight Movement data (CFS, ITMS,…) • Truck trip generators (trucking industry, warehousing/DC) • Universe of trucks (DMV, type, size, GVW) • Truck traffic (counts, surveys, studies) • Truck involved accidents

13. TRUCK/FREIGHT MODELING FRAMEWORK AND PREPARATION Objectives: • To provide planners knowledge and understanding of domestic truck/freight movements; • To develop a model framework for modeling domestic truck/freight movements; and • To recommend an approach for constructing a domestic truck/freight movement model

14. TRUCKING FUNDAMENTALS • Trucks come in a multitude of sizes and types • Most classifications or descriptions of trucks are created for specific purposes, often regulatory FREIGHT FUNDAMENTALS • Freight and service trucking are derived demands • Demand for freight transportation is derived from the requirement of shippers and receivers to move goods from where they are to where they are needed • Demand for service trucking is derived from the customer’s service requirements

15. LOCAL TRUCKING RADIAL • Local trucking accounts for most truck movements – not the long haul segment • Operations have three basic patterns – radial, peddle and multi-leg PEDDLE MULTI-LEG

16. SERVICE TRUCKING FUNDAMENTALS • Service trucking is the movement of a truck for the purpose of performing a service function (maintenance, utility work, etc). • Rarely has it been considered in planning or modeling efforts • 74% of the Los Angeles metro area “truck” population is used in business or personal services • Most vehicles are small Class 1 or 2 pickups, SUVs, and vans (GVW 10,000 lbs or less) often ignored in truck models • Services accounts for a significant portion of medium-duty vehicles Service providers make their money by stopping while freight haulers are paid to move

17. TRUCK/FREIGHT MODELING METHODS State-of-the-practice: • Link-based factoring • Origin-Destination factoring • 3-step freight truck models • 4-step commodity models • Economic activity models (Oregon) • Hybrid (commodity and truck both) models (SCAG HDT) State-of-the-art: • Logistics chain models (The Netherlands) • Tour-based models (Calgary)

18. RECOMMENDED HYBRID MODEL FRAMEWORK A Hybrid Model combining: • Logistics chain models for agriculture products, petroleum and coal, forestry, mining,… • Tour-based models for textile, apparel, electronics and appliance, furniture,…, and services

19. LOGISTICS BASED MODEL COMPONENT • Focus on how shipments move from producer to consumer • Include mode choice decisions • Three layers: economic, logistics and transport • 38% of local commodities is eligible for this approach • Four illustrative logistics chains are: TOUR BASED MODEL COMPONENT • Focus on linking a series of legs and trips into a single tour • Can be used for truck trips not more accurately described by logistic models • A series of disaggregate logit models • No mode choice is involved

20. IMPLEMENTATION APPROACH • Phase I – Prototype Logistics-chain and Tour-based model for one industry • Phase II – Remaining industries and model validation.

21. INTERIM CUBE CARGO MODEL Why Cube Cargo? • Cube Cargo is the only modeling software available to date that is specifically developed to simulate regional and urban truck/freight movements; • Successfully applied in over 20 studies in 10 European nations including Germany, France, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, Greece and Italy; • Multimodal - It treats truck and rail separately; • Beyond HDT - It models local delivery, service truck trips and tour-based trips; • Contained Logistic Chain and Tour Based Concept • Cube Cargo is a module of Cube system, a family of travel demand modeling software, which integrates modeling of automobiles, transit and truck/freight in one system.

22. A COMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING SYSTEM TP+ TRIPS TRANPLAN • Cube Base: • ArcGIS • Viper • GIS Tools • Model Building Tools • Scenario Management Tools

23. A preliminary multi-modal truck/freight model • PC Tranplan/Cube Voyager format of MTA passenger model • A preliminary micro-simulation of the I-710 between I-5 and Bandini/Atlantic interchange • GIS based highway and transit networks CUBE CARGO AND Cube DYNASIM MODEL

24. Win-Win = Balance of Mobility for People and Freight Thank You! Luke Cheng’s E-mail address: LCHENG@CITILABS.COM