Utilizing FIA Data for Timber Supply Analysis: Insights from Rayonier at the SAF National Meeting
This presentation by John Paul McTague at the SAF National FIA User Group Meeting outlines how Rayonier applies Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data for critical decision-making. It discusses the use of FIA statistics and market intelligence to understand supply dynamics, support market projections, and analyze wood basket challenges. Key methodologies include the Sub-Regional Timber Supply model (SRTS) and Wood Basket Analysis, with case studies illustrating impacts of new wood facilities on existing operations and procurement strategies.
Utilizing FIA Data for Timber Supply Analysis: Insights from Rayonier at the SAF National Meeting
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Presentation Transcript
How Industry uses FIA data? SAF National FIA User Group Meeting Salt Lake City, UT March 20, 2013 John Paul McTague – Rayonier FR&SS
Current Uses • FIA statistics and market intelligence • Provide baseline understanding for areas of interest • Indicate where supply statistics support potential market additions or challenges • Input data for the SRTS (Sub-Regional Timber Supply) model. • Wood Basket Analysis - is the resource increasing, decreasing 1) Set distance radii around a mill 2) Group of counties or an entire state
Understanding potential challenges or opportunities for operations. Below is a side-by-side comparison of supply statistics for three basins Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Pine Plantation Volume Summary G/R statistic is a key indicator of market opportunity
Demonstrating scale and focus with acres by speciesAcres by Species Group for Basin 1 *Source: FIA Data Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Private Timberland ResourceAcres by Age Class for Basin 1 Age class distribution skewed to <19 ages *Source: FIA Data Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Pine Inventory Characteristics by ProductInventory, Growth and Removals for Basin 1 Growth-to-Drain ratios indicate strong growth of the pulpwood product pool Large grade G/D reflective of natural pine component *Source: FIA Data; Rayonier Analysis Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Pine Plantation Volume DistributionInventory, Growth and Removals for Basin 1 Growth-to-Drain relationship more pronounced in smaller dbh classes *Source: FIA Data; Rayonier Analysis Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
Demonstrate History through Harvest CharacteristicsUSDA FIA Timber Product Output Survey Removals by Survey Yearfor Basin 1 Decline in sawlog harvest of 1.5 million tons (29%) between 2005 and 2009 *Source: FIA Timber Product Output Rayonier Confidential and Proprietary Information
The Sub-Regional Timber Supply Model (SRTS) • Can provide projections of inventory, harvests, growth, and potential price response over time that can be used for business and strategic planning.
Wood Basket Example • The Typical Situation: A new wood using facility is scheduled to open near one of our mills. The new facility will use X tons per year. • Question: How large of an impact will this new wood consumption have on our mill’s wood basket? • Strategy: Do we need to change our species mix or other procurement strategy to keep fiber costs stable.
Wood Basket Example • Rayonier’s Jesup Mill • Location: Jesup, Georgia Products: Absorbent pulp and specialty pulp Wood species: Southern pine and hardwood Average Haul: 50 miles
Wood Basket Example • NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup
Wood Basket Example • NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup Volume of GS trees on timberland
Wood Basket Example • NCASI’s GForest - 75 mile radius for Jesup Acres, Inventory, Growth, Removals
