Climate change and energy security BIICL Annual Conference 2010 11 th June 2010

1. Climate change and energy security BIICL Annual Conference 2010 11th June 2010 Professor Julia King CBE FREng Aston University Birmingham Member of the Committee on Climate Change

2. Climate change: why are we worried? • Global and national targets • UK – energy use and climate change • Energy security and climate change mitigation • Conclusions

3. The impacts of climate change • Business as usual: a high probability of global average temperature rise in excess of 4o, possibly as early as 2060 • Europe 8o warmer,12o on hottest day • North America 10 – 12o warmer: Toronto, Chicago, New York, Washington DC • Maize and wheat yields reduced by up to 40% at low latitudes • Rice yields down 30% in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia • By 2080 40% of the world’s population has less than 1000 litres of water per year that’s just 3 litres a day or a bath a month • 20 - 30% plant and animal species at high risk of extinction • Sustained global temperature increase of 2o: 20 – 40% decline in rainforest

4. BAU: land with decreased crop suitability in 2100 Met Office 2009

5. Or…security implications of climate change Migration and refugees Rise in extremism in badly affected areas Public health Public discontent/ disorder Climate change International relations Failure of critical infrastructure Energy security Communications and transport Strategic products and technologies Uninsurable risks

6. The impacts of climate change Source: IPCC

7. Climate change: why are we worried? • Global and national targets • UK – energy use and climate change • Energy security and climate change mitigation • Conclusions

8. Required global emissions reduction • Why? • Advances in science • Actual emissions higher than forecast • Assessment of damage • Decision rule: • keep temperature change close to 2°C and probability of 4°C increase at very low levels • Required global emissions reduction of 50% • 20-24 GtCO2e emissions in 2050 • 8-10 GtCO2e in 2100 • Global trajectories considered • Early or later peak (2015 vs. 2030) • 3%/4% annual emissions reduction

9. Appropriate developed country/UK contribution 50% global reduction • Burden share • Alternative methodologies (contract and converge, intensity convergence, triptych etc.) • Equal per capita emissions: • 20-24 GtCO2e global total in 2050 • implies 2.1-2.6 tCO2e per capita 2.1-2.6 CO2e per capita gives a UK reduction of at least 80% by 2050 Aviation and shipping included All GHGs

10. So what does that mean? • In 2050 total CO2eper head needs to be 2.1 – 2.6 tonnes per annum • A return flight to Los Angeles for 1 person 2.5 tonnes • An average new car today (160g/km), driven 15,000km per year, emits 2.4 tonnes per annum

11. Global CO2 emissions Source:WRI (2006)

12. Global CO2 emissions Energy emissions Source:WRI (2006)

13. How do we deal with global issues? • Copenhagen, December 2009 • 120 Heads of State • Agreement to keep below 2o • No binding global agreement to reduce emissions • But individual country targets • now received from over 100 countries • Potential to deliver 50% global reduction

14. Climate change: why are we worried? • Global and national targets • UK – energy use and emissions • Energy security and climate change mitigation • Conclusions

15. The scale of the UK CO2 challenge Energy emissions Committee on Climate Change October 2009

16. Meeting required reductions Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS Application of power to transport and heat • Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency • Lifestyle change • Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps, storage heating) • Biomass boilers • CCS in industry • Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency • Electric/plug-in hybrids • Bio fuels (first vs. second generation)

17. Power sector decarbonisation Emissions intensity to 2050 Power generation to 2050

18. UK electricity installed capacity DECC 2009

19. UK electricity generation 1996 - 2008 DECC 2009

20. Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020 Generating capacity Generating mix By 2020: Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total 3 new nuclear plants CCS demonstration plants CCC 2009

21. UK emissions 2006 695 Mt CO2e International aviation & shipping* UK non-CO2 GHGs Other CO2 Industry (heat & industrial processes) Residential & Commercial heat Domestic transport Electricity Generation * bunker fuels basis Oil Non-energy emissions Oil, Gas, Coal, Electricity, Renewables Oil, Gas, Coal, Electricity, Renewables Oil, Renewables 2006 emissions Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Renewables

22. Climate change: why are we worried? • Global and national targets • UK – energy use and climate change • Energy security and climate change mitigation • Conclusions

23. Energy security • Physical security: avoiding involuntary interruptions to supply • Price security: avoiding spikes and providing energy at reasonable prices to consumers • Geopolitical security: ensuring the UK retains independence in foreign policy by avoiding dependence for energy on particular nations DECC EMO 2008

24. Primary energy supply in the UK Global energy supplies DECC Energy Indicators

25. UK energy supply • 2007 net importer – 20% of energy supply • Crude oil: net imports of 7.5% of consumption • Gas: 21% imported • Coal: 72% imported • 2025 increasing levels of imports: • Crude oil: 61% imported • Gas: 63% imported • Coal: predictions less clear • 2050 continuing upward trend in % imported

26. Where will our energy come from? By 2030 world energy demand will be up by 45% Fossil fuels sourced from less stable areas of the world IEA World Energy Outlook 2008

27. Some key import routes and suppliers for the future • Oil and Gas • Strait of Hormuz • Suez Canal • …. • Gas • Russia • Turkey • Coal • Russia Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy insecurity

28. Capacity and generating mix 2008 & 2020 Generating capacity Generating mix By 2020: Extra 23GW wind: 27GW total 3 new nuclear plants CCS demonstration plants CCC 2009

29. Meeting required reductions Reducing power sector emissions: Renewables (Wind, solar, tidal and marine, biomass), nuclear, CCS Application of power to transport and heat • Reducing heat emissions: • Energy efficiency • Lifestyle change • Electric heat (e.g. heat pumps, storage heating) • Biomass boilers • CCS in industry • Reducing transport emissions: • Fuel efficiency • Electric/plug-in hybrids • Bio fuels (first vs. second generation)

30. More radical renewables and nuclear strategies are feasible High feasible scenario for operational wind: 39% of generation Severn barrage 8.6MW: 10% of generation ……….. CCC 2009

31. Existing low carbon electricity markets CCC 2009

32. Climate change: why are we worried? • Global and national targets • UK – energy use and climate change • Energy security and climate change mitigation • Conclusions

33. Conclusions • Fossil fuel dependency → increasing energy insecurity and increased global insecurity and instability • Climate change mitigation → increasing energy security and global stability • Security, energy security, climate change impacts and climate change mitigation are closely linked • Joined-up thinking and planning are required to ensure we address them together

34. UK path to an 80% or more reduction in 2050 Wind and nuclear Other renewable and CCS Energy efficiency improvement Renewable heat Electric heat Electric cars/plug in hybrids 1-2% of GDP in 2050 2020 2008 2050