1 / 15

Myanmar Development Trajectories: Insights from Vietnam

Explore Myanmar's development paths and valuable lessons from Vietnam to chart a prosperous future. Delve into key data, positive and negative Vietnam experiences, and the importance of productivity. Understand the three paths to prosperity, industrialization strategies, and economic policy choices for Myanmar's progress. Gain valuable insights on catching up economically and embracing modernization for sustainable growth.

quinlan-gregory
Télécharger la présentation

Myanmar Development Trajectories: Insights from Vietnam

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. www.mekongeconomics.com “Myanmar development paths and lessons from Vietnam” Lecture to Yangon Institute for Economics, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012) By Adam McCarty (adaminhanoi@gmail.com)

  2. Introduction • Adam McCarty (ANU; Vietnam; SOAS; ISS; MKE; mmtimes) • Development Economics… • Let us assume…

  3. Contents • Perspective: • Key data • development path (Gapminder; Hans Rosling; www.Ted.com) – slower but not stagnant; need to “reindustrialise”. • Three paths to prosperity (LRL) • The positive lessons from Vietnam • The negative lessons from Vietnam

  4. Better, yet poorest in ASEAN

  5. GDP: Roll a dice

  6. Other indicative and key data • Electricity sales grew 4.5% p.a. 2002-2009 • Cement sales grew 1.8% p.a. 2004-2009 • Poverty 26% (IHLCS 2010) • 26% of households have grid electricity • Adult literacy 92% (?) • Infant mortality rate 50/1,000 • Life expectancy 62 years • 13 million (of 60 million) aged 15-28 years

  7. Where, economically, is Myanmar now? Why any need to learn from Vietnam?

  8. How does a poor country “catch up”? • Copying, not inventing (technology transfer, including tacit knowledge) • Openness (not “self-reliance”; protectionism; import-substitution; infant industries; etc.) • Embracing “creative destruction” • Embracing “exploitation” (industrialisation) • Letting households do business (and farmers own land) NOTE: The magic word is “productivity”

  9. Three paths to prosperity • LEFT (Indian sub-continent): red tape; rather protectionist; illiteracy and weak health; some landlords. Result: OK growth. • RIGHT (Thailand, Vietnam, China): literacy with health; farmers own land; SEZs; openness. Result: Fast growth. • LATIN (Latin America, Philippines): rural aristocracy; protectionist; urban enclave; informal sector & NGOs; inequality. Result: Erratic OK growth.

  10. GAPMINDER • Industrialisation (rural-urban) is the essence of catching up (to middle-income status) • Countries copy the policies of their neighbours (e.g. Latin inequality reveals Latin path) – will Myanmar look left or right? • Literacy data confirms the left/right paths

  11. 68% of exports are gas, logs, and legumes. Clothing and footwear are only 8% of exports.

  12. Vietnam: Positive lessons to learn • Land reform • Grass-roots democracy • Microfinance • Primary education • Household enterprises • Industry zones • Targeting help to the poorest

  13. Vietnam: Negative lessons • General Corporations • Banking sector • Macroeconomic management • Pubic Investment Planning • Tertiary education The above have caused Vietnam to become inefficient; growth is accumulation-based not productivity-based.

  14. Vietnam’s low productivity problem GDP Growth, Investment Rates, and ICOR (Selected Countries, 2007-09)

  15. QUESTIONS? “Myanmar development paths and lessons from Vietnam” Lecture to Yangon Institute for Economics, Rangon, Myanmar (13 September, 2012) By Adam McCarty (adaminhanoi@gmail.com)

More Related