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Conceptual Framework for Aflatoxin Assessment: Impacts on Agriculture and Economic Development

This presentation by Tulika Narayan and Angela Stene discusses a conceptual framework designed for country and economic assessments related to aflatoxins, which are a critical threat to health and development in Africa. It outlines methods for evaluating aflatoxin prevalence in maize and groundnuts, identifying risk factors, and assessing the economic impact of contamination. The objective includes developing a low-cost method for country-level action in Nigeria and Tanzania, promoting cross-sector collaboration, and implementing viable control strategies to mitigate risks associated with aflatoxins.

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Conceptual Framework for Aflatoxin Assessment: Impacts on Agriculture and Economic Development

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Presentation Transcript

  1. From Analysis to Action: A Conceptual Framework for Country and Economic Assessment for Aflatoxins Tulika Narayan and Angela Stene Mycotoxins: Triple Threat to African Development February 14, 2013

  2. Presentation Roadmap • Objective of the country and economic assessment • Conceptual framework and research methods • Aflatoxin prevalence data for maize and groundnuts • Characterization of risk factors: method and findings • Economic impact of aflatoxin contamination • Identification and prioritization of viable control strategies through in-country workshops

  3. Objective of the Country and Economic Assessment • Develop a replicable, low-cost method for PACA • Pilot it in Nigeria and Tanzania • Characterize the key risks and economic impacts of aflatoxin contamination… • Identify promising opportunities for control • Vet findings with policy and practitioners • Garner country-level action through cross-sectoral collaboration

  4. Conceptual Framework

  5. Qualitative & Quantitative Data Sources • Primary data for prevalence sampling. • Living Standard Measurement Survey - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). • FAOSTAT for historical trade data and food balance sheet. • Other secondary data sources on population, age structure, HBV prevalence, WHO Life tables • Qualitative primary data.

  6. Aflatoxin Prevalence in Maize and Groundnuts

  7. Aflatoxin B1 Prevalence in Nigeria

  8. Aflatoxin B1 Prevalence in Tanzania

  9. Characterization of Risk: Method and Findings

  10. Characterization of Risks • Risks of aflatoxin on country’s agriculture and food security, trade and/or healthsector are determined by: • (1) uses of contaminated crop (domestic human consumption, international trade, or feed); • (2) levels of awareness about aflatoxins and aflatoxin control among policy makers, farmers, traders, and consumers; • (3) actions (of lack thereof) taken by regulators, buyers and consumers to mitigate the risk. This step used qualitative and quantitative methods.

  11. Final Use of Crops Contaminated Products

  12. Own Consumption by Agricultural Households

  13. Qualitative Assessment Locations Tanzania Nigeria

  14. Stakeholders and Key Informants Policy Makers PACA Regulators Importers /Exporters Farmers Trade Agriculture Agro-Processors Consumers Health Practitioners in Liver Cancer, Gut Health, Nutrition Livestock and Feed Suppliers

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