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Norbis W, GJ Nagy, A Ponce, V Pshennikov, G Sención, R Silva and J Verocai

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYof FISHERMEN of the URUGUAYAN COAST of the RIO de la PLATA, to HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILTY and OTHER STRESSORS. Norbis W, GJ Nagy, A Ponce, V Pshennikov, G Sención, R Silva and J Verocai DEPARTAMENTO DE ECOLOGIA - OCEANOLOGIA Facultad de Ciencias, UdelaR, Montevideo, Uruguay.

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Norbis W, GJ Nagy, A Ponce, V Pshennikov, G Sención, R Silva and J Verocai

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  1. ADAPTIVE CAPACITYof FISHERMEN of the URUGUAYAN COAST of the RIO de la PLATA, to HYDROCLIMATIC VARIABILTY and OTHER STRESSORS Norbis W, GJ Nagy, A Ponce, V Pshennikov, G Sención, R Silva andJ Verocai DEPARTAMENTO DE ECOLOGIA - OCEANOLOGIA Facultad de Ciencias, UdelaR, Montevideo, Uruguay

  2. THIS PRESENTATION AIMS TO DESCRIBE 1: RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN • ESTUARINE FRONT (EF) • ENSO-RELATED VARIABILITY • FISHERIES RESOURCE • ARTISANAL FISHERIES WITHIN THE E.F. 2: THE • ADAPTIVE CAPACITY • CURRENT VULNERABILITY • SUSTAINABILITY OF THE COASTAL FISHERY SYSTEM

  3. ESTUARINE FRONT OF THE RIO DE LA PLATA

  4. THE PROBLEM • An artisanal fleet exploits fisheries a few miles off the Uruguayan coast (in the estuarine front zone (EF) of the Río de la Plata (FIG. 1) • The location of the EF (therefore the accesibility of exploited resources) depends on ENSO-related variability of the river flow • Artisanal fishermen are highly vulnerable to both climate and non-climate constraints (regional economic crisis since 2001) • Coastal community has low adaptive capacity

  5. Figure 1. Estuarine Front location • a) Strong La Niña event(summer 99-2000) • Neutral - Typical • Moderate El Niño (winter 1987) • d) Strong El Niño (Spring / Summer 2002 – 2003)

  6. Evolution of SST & Salinty at Montevideo: ENSO events1998-2000

  7. Extreme river-ward location of the EF (yellow): La Niña event (March 2000)

  8. Seaward location of the EF (yellow):El Niño (October 2002)

  9. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: SOCIAL

  10. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: ECONOMIC

  11. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: ENVIRONMENTAL

  12. CUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY: LEGAL/INSTITUTIONAL

  13. ANATOMY of the ADAPTATION to CLIMATE CHANGE & VARIABILITY

  14. 1) WHAT IS ADAPTATION ? • Process by which stakeholders involved in the Coastal Fishery System reduce the adverse effects of climate on their livelihood. • This Process involves any passive, reactive or anticipatory adjustment of behavior and economic structure in order to increase sustainability and reduce vulnerability to climate change, variability and weather / climate extremes. (modified from Burton,1992; Smit, 1993; Smith, 1993; Stakhiv, 1993)

  15. 2) ADAPT TO WHAT ? CLIMATIC STIMULI: ENS0 VARIABILITY 3) WHO ADAPTS ? COASTAL FISHERY SYSTEM

  16. 4) HOW DOES ADAPTATION OCCUR ? • THROUGH PROCESSES: • EXTERNAL FORCINGS (RIVER FLOW CHANGES) AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE ESTUARINE FRONT VARIATIONS IN THE LOCATION OF MAIN RESOURCE (CROAKER)->FISHERMEN MIGRATION • OUTCOME: THIS EXAMPLE OF AUTONOMOUS ADAPTATION HAS BEING SUCCESFUL UNTIL 2002

  17. 5) HOW GOOD IS ADAPTATION ? • COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS

  18. Long-term Fishermen Gross Income (from October (1) to September (12)

  19. Min Average Max Average Daily fishing sortiesAverage weight of boxes (1 = 23 Kg)Fishing period 1998-99 boxes 57 60 50 40 39 36 35 40 32 31 30 19 20 10 0 13 19 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-31 Clusters

  20. Catch level max fishing period 98-99 Catch level low fishing period 98-99 Pajas Blancas´Fishing ScenariosFleet = 30 boatsFishing period = 4 months (rows 1,2,3); 3 months (4,5,6) ; 2 months (7,8,9) Days of effective fishing: ( 17 day/month (1,4,7); 12 d/m (2,5,8); 8 d/m (3,6,9)PerformanceBoxes/performance % boats # boatshigh46 boxes/day23 6.9 moderate 38 boxes/day59 17.7 low 26 boxes/day18 5.4 Scenarios, boat productivity, fishing period and days 1800 1600 1400 1200 tons 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

  21. TOTAL ACCUMULATED BOXES (OBSERVED VS. MODEL) OBSERVED = 923 BOATS SORTIED IN 64 DAYS – AVERAGE CATCH 22 NET BOXESMODEL= 640 BOATS SORTIED (10 BOATS PER SORTIE/DAY) - AVERAGE CATCH 20 NET BOXES PER SORTIE/BOAT 25000 20000 15000 Boxes 10000 5000 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 Obs Number of fishing sorties (days) Model

  22. TOTAL ACCUMULATED BOXES (OBSERVED VS. MODEL) OBSERVED = 923 BOATS SORTIED IN 64 DAYS – AVERAGE CATCH 22 NET BOXESMODEL= 640 BOATS SORTIED (10 BOATS PER SORTIE/DAY) - AVERAGE CATCH 25 NET BOXES PER SORTIE/BOAT 25000 20000 15000 Boxes 10000 5000 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 Number of fishing sorties (days) Obs Model

  23. Sc 1 - 31 average boxes with 15 boats Sc 2 – Fishing period 98-99 Sc 3 - 40 average boxes with 31 boats “Pajas Blancas” Fishing Scenarios Sc 1 Log IB Sc 2 boxes Sc 3 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 Sortied days

  24. Evolution of Salinty: El Niño 2002

  25. CONCLUSIONS about ADAPTATION STRATEGIES ENSO EVENTS ARE RECURRENT AND ONCE SST ANOMALIES ARE KNOWN, ADAPTATION MEASURES SHOULD START • EARLY WARNING IS POSIBLE A FEW MONTHS BEFORE • PARTICIPATORY PROCESSES INVOLVING SCIENTISTS, MANAGERS AND FISHERMEN PARTICIPATION ARE NEEDED TO ALLOW ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT • DIALOG AND COMMUNICATION NEED TO BE ENHANCED

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