By: The folks at the Institute for Ecological Economics. At the University of Maryland

1. The Global Unified Model of the BiOsphere (GUMBO): An exploration through simulation modeling into the global dynamics and interactions of the earth sociology, economy, and ecology. By: The folks at the Institute for Ecological Economics. At the University of Maryland http://iee.umces.edu

2. G U M B O L a n d s c a p e M o d e l s G e n e r a l U n i t m o d e l G l o b a l M a n a g e m e n t V e r t i c a l g a s a n d g r o u n d w a t e r e x c h a n g - e s U p t a k e N u t r i e n t s k i n e t i c s S u n - H o r i z o n t a l P r i m a r y p r o d u c e r s l i g h t e x c h a n g e P h y t o p l a n k - H y d r o l o g y t o n W a t e r D e c o m p o s i t i o n P r i m a r y p r o d u c e r s M a c r o p h y t e s C o n s u m e r s N o n L i v i n g S o i l O r g a n i c M a t t e r D e t r i - R e g i o n a l M a n a g e m e n t t u s L o c a l M a n a g e m e n t I n d i v i d u a l P r o c e s s e s N a t u r a l C a p i t a l B u i l t C a p i t a l S o c i a l + C O 2 C a p i t a l F e e d - i n g F e e d - i n g H u m a n M o r t a l i t y F r a g m e n t a t i o n C a p i t a l M o r t a l i t y a n d L i t t e r - f a l l M o d u l e s

3. What does unified mean ? Gumbo draws information from many disciplines: • Geological models • Global Climate models • Sociology models • Economic models • Atmospheric models • Ecosystem models

4. What is a metamodel ? • The idea of a meta model is analog to the concept of meta data:GUMBO inputs are the outputs generated by more complex and computational intense models.GUMBO inputs and calibrations rely on existing observational databases.

5. The Biosphere Lithosphere Biosphere Anthroposphere Atmosphere Hydrosphere

6. Restrictions put on modeldevelopment The hardware requirement: The model needs to be able to run on an average PC: (MacIntoschG4 200 Year run takes about 1 minute The software requirement: The model needs to be able to run under readily available software: (GUMBO is available in STELLA 7 for MacIntosh and MS-windows and will be available in IMA/SME on UNIX platforms) The “ease of use” requirement:As everyone is a Global stakeholder, the model should be operational at the most obtainable ease.

7. Biome Change Hydrosphere forest grassland ocean .... Biosphere forest Atmosphere grassland ocean .... Lithosphere Antropho - sphere forest grassland ocean .... Ecosystem Services

8. Atmosphere Carbon and nutrient accounting among biomes and among spheres. Atmospheric carbon Atmospheric Nutrients Atmospheric Water Global energy balances and climate change. Spatial fluxes of energy, Account of the global heat budget from landuse change and landuse specific values of insolation and radiations

9. Lithosphere (The earth crust, to include soils, suspended and deposited sediments) Silicate Oxides Suspended Sediments Deposited sediments/soils Rocks Carbon Soil carbon Carbon Rock Minerals (other) Soil nutrients Ore deposits

10. Hydrosphere Precipitation to ice precipitation to water ice melting ICE Ocean Inflow Water freezing Continental Runoff Surface water Surface Water Use Surface water to soil moisture Transpiration Soil moisture Ground/ Deep Water Infiltration Soil moisture to ground water Cleaned up water Waste water Ground Water Use Ground water to ocean

11. Biosphere Autotrophe Respiration GPP Autotrophs Consumption Autotroph net Harvest Autotroph Mortality DOM spatial exchange Consumers Dead Organic Matter Decomposer Growth Consumer Mortality Consumer Respiration Consumer Harvest Decomposers Soil formation Decomposer Respiration Decomposer Mortality

12. Antroposphere Social Capital Natural Capita l Human networks Norms, rules and shared behavior Ecosystem structures and processes valued for potential goods and services Human Capita l Built Capital Knowledge and Population Ecological goods stored and valued in the human dimension Wast e Depreciated value of goods The Physical World Culture

13. Ecosystem functions: The capacity of natural processes and components to provide goods and services that satisfy human needs. (de Groot, 1992) Ecosystem services: Valued ecosystem functions Ecosystem Structure and Processes Management Decisions Ecosystem goods Value Ecosystem Functions Ecosystem Services

14. Economic Production Organic Matter Harvested Fossil Fuel Extraction Ore Production Water use Savings rates Ecosystem Goods Production Knowledge Formation Built Capital Formation GOODS & SERVICES Social Capital Economic Production Social Capital Formation Knowledge Labor Force - Personal Consumption Built Capital Natural Capital Formation WASTE Ecosystem Services Production Gas Regulation Climate Regulation Soil Formation Plant Nutrient Uptake Disturbance Regulation Waste Assimilation Potential Recreation and Cultural Services

15. Well being Social Capital Knowledge Built Capital Well being from Ecosystem Services Well being from human made capital Well being Well being from consumption Well being from Ecosystem Goods Well being from waste Fossil Fuel Extraction Fresh Water production Organic Matter Production Ore Production

16. Scenarios Policies Optimist Skeptic Optimist Big Government Star Trek Assumptions Skeptic Mad Max Eco-Topia

17. Neutral Skeptical OptimisticSavings Rates Human Capital 0.016 0.022 0.022 0.01 0.01 Social Capital 0.16 0.18 0.46 0.05 0.02 Built Capital 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Natural Capital 0.15 0.3 0.3 0 0 Consumption 0.52 0.40 0.12 0.74 0.77 Policies Baseline Star Trek Mad Max Eco-Topia Big Government

18. Ecosystem health and human populationNeutral Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic Baseline Big Gov Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek Health care factor 0.002 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.003 Max healthcare effect 0.01 0.02 0 0 0.02 Waste carrying capacity 80000 100000 60000 60000 100000 knowledge v fertility 0.001 0.002 0 0 0.002 Fertility Know max 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.04 State of the World Assumptions:

19. Neutral Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic Baseline Big Gov Eco-Topia Mad Max Star TrekAssimilation capacity 5000 7000 3000 3000 7000 effect of NCF on waste 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 State of the World Assumptions: Waste treatment capabilities

20. Neutral Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic Parameter name Baseline Big Gov Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek Time Switch 2100 2003 2003 2003 2003 Accessable oil 700 800 600 600 800 Max unknown alt Energy 2 4 0 0 4 Energy switch Rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 State of the World Assumptions: Unknowns about our energy reserves

21. Neutral Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic Parameter name Baseline Big Gov Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek Knowledge SC effect 0.0002 0 0.0004 0.0004 0 State of the World Assumptions: Did technology cause a decline in social capital?

22. Neutral Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic Baseline Big Gov Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek OCEANMax Energy effect on Con Harvest 0.04 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.06Energy effect on Con Harvest 0.003 0.006 0 0 0.006 COASTAL OCEANMax Energy effect on Con Harvest 0.04 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.06 Energy effect on Con Harvest 0.003 0.006 0 0 0.006GRASS LANDS Max Energy effect on Con Harvest 0.02 0.025 0.015 0.015 0.025 Energy effect on Con Harvest 0.04 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.07 State of the World Assumptions: Developments in meat and fish production

23. Neutral Optimistic Skeptical Skeptical Optimistic Baseline Big Gov Eco-Topia Mad Max Star Trek Energy effect on plant Harvest 0.25 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 Max Energy effect on plant harvest 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.9 Knowhow on Chlorophyll conc 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.04 Knowledge on Chlorophyll 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.03 State of the World Assumptions: Agricultural Developments in croplands

24. Landuse Changes 1000 3000 Ice and Rock Wetland 2500 800 2000 600 ha 1500 6 10 400 1000 200 500 0 0 2000 6000 Tundra Grasslands 5500 1500 5000 MM,ET ha 1000 6 4500 10 4000 500 3500 0 3000 6000 1000 Forests Observations Urban 5500 800 Scenarios 5000 Base Case 600 ha 4500 Star Trek (ST) 6 10 400 Big Government (BG) 4000 200 Mad Max (MM) 3500 EcoTopia (ET) 3000 0 4000 2000 Desert Croplands 3000 1500 ha MM,ET 2000 1000 6 10 1000 500 0 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Year

25. 1200 23 1100 22 1000 Giga Ton C °C 900 21 800 20 700 0.4 0.3 0.2 meters 0.1 Observations Scenarios Base Case 0.0 Star Trek (ST) Big Government (BG) Mad Max (MM) Eco-Topia (ET) 12 10 8 Giga Ton C 6 4 2 0 BiophysicalVariables Atmospheric Global Temp Carbon Fossil Fuel extraction Sea level

26. 2000 1500 Waste equivalents 1000 Observations Scenarios 500 Base Case Star Trek (ST) 0 Big Government (BG) Mad Max (MM) 4.5 Eco-Topia (ET) 4.0 3.5 Giga Ton C equivalents 3.0 1.0 16 0.8 14 12 0.6 Fraction of total energy 10 Giga Ton C equivalents 0.4 8 0.2 6 4 0.0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Year Alternative Waste Energy Fossil Fuel Total Energy Market share

27. 20 15 billion people 10 5 1900 1950 2000 2050 Human Population Observations Scenarios Base Case Star Trek (ST) Big Government (BG) Mad Max (MM) Eco-Topia (ET)

28. 300 2000 250 1500 200 1000 US Dollars (1998) per person trill. 1998 US Dollars 150 1000 100 500 50 0 0 800 8000 600 6000 trill. 1998 US Dollars 1000 US Dollars (1998) per person 400 4000 2000 200 0 0 4.0 1.2 3.5 1.0 3.0 Social Capital Index (SCI) SCI per billion people 0.8 2.5 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.2 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Year Knowledge Knowledge per capita Built Capital Built capital per capita Scenarios Base Case Social Network Social network Star Trek (ST) per capita Big Government (BG) Mad Max (MM) Eco-Topia (ET)

29. 2.0 0.20 -1 *day 1.5 -1 Kg per person 0.16 1.0 kg*person 0.12 0.5 0.08 120 80 100 80 60 trill. 1998 US dollars 1000 US Dollars per person 60 40 40 20 20 1.0 3.0 0.8 2.5 2.0 0.6 Welfare Index per billion people Welfare Index 1.5 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.5 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Energy per capita Food per capita GWP per capita Gross World Product Welfare per capita Global Welfare

30. 6 5 4 3 2 -2 10 6 5 4 3 welfare Index per trill. 1998 US dollars 2 -3 10 6 5 4 3 2 -4 10 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year Welfare per GWP

31. 7000 10 8 6000 -1 -1 6 GigaTon*yr 5000 GigaTon*yr 4 4000 2 3000 0 0.9 24 -1 22 -1 0.8 20 GigaTon *SCI GigaTon*yr 0.7 18 16 0.6 14 11.0 3.00 -1 GigaTon C° *GigaTon 10.5 2.75 10.0 2.50 12 10 -1 *yr 8 -1 kg*kg 6 4 2 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year Soil Formation Waste Treatment Ecosystem Functions Nutrient Cycling Recreation and Culture Gas Regulation Disturbance Regulation Climate Regulation

32. Ecosystem Services Value 500 400 300 trill. US Dollars (1998) 200 100 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year

33. In Conclusion:The main objective in creating the GUMBO model was not to accurately predict the future, but to provide simulation capabilities and a knowledge base to facilitate integrated participation in modeling. It should be noted that this is “version 1.0” of the model. It will undergo substantial changes and improvements as we continue to develop it, and the conclusions offered here can only be thought of as “preliminary.” Nevertheless, we can reach some important conclusions from the work so far, including:· To our knowledge, no other global models have yet achieved the level of dynamic integration between the biophysical earth system and the human socioeconomic system incorporated in GUMBO.· Preliminary calibration results across a broad range of variables show very good agreement with historical data. This builds confidence in the model and also constrains future scenarios. • We produced a range of scenarios that represent what we thought were reasonable rates of change of key parameters and investment policies, and these bracketed a range of future possibilities that can serve as a basis for further discussions, assessments, and improvements. Users are free to change these parameters further and observe the results.· Assessing global sustainability can only be done using a dynamic integrated model of the type we have created in GUMBO. But one is still left with decisions about what to sustain (i.e. GWP, welfare, welfare per capita, etc.) GUMBO allows these decisions to be made explicitly and in the context of the complex world system. It allows both desirable and sustainable futures to be examined. · Ecosystem services are highly integrated into the model, both in terms of the biophysical functioning of the earth system and in the provision of human welfare. Both their physical and value dynamics are shown to be quite complex.· The overall value of ecosystem services, in terms of their relative contribution to both the production and welfare functions, is shown to be significantly higher than GWP (4.5 times in this preliminary version of the model).· “Skeptical” investment policies are shown to have the best chance (given uncertainty about key parameters) of achieving high and sustainable welfare per capita. This means increased relative rates of investment in knowledge, social capital, and natural capital, and reduced investment in built capital and consumption.