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Volker Wulfmeyer Institute of Physics and Meteorology University of Hohenheim

Studies of the Process Chain and the Predictability of Precipitation With the D-PHASE Ensemble and COPS Observations. Volker Wulfmeyer Institute of Physics and Meteorology University of Hohenheim. Claudia Wunram and Michael Lautenschlager World Data Center for Climate

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Volker Wulfmeyer Institute of Physics and Meteorology University of Hohenheim

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  1. Studies of the Process Chain and the Predictability of Precipitation With the D-PHASE Ensemble and COPS Observations Volker Wulfmeyer Institute of Physics and Meteorology University of Hohenheim Claudia Wunram and Michael Lautenschlager World Data Center for Climate Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Reinhold Steinacker and Manfred Dorninger Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics University of Vienna Mathias Rotach Swiss Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology Meteo Swiss Christoph Kottmeier Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research University of Karlsruhe April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  2. D-PHASE D-PHASE/COPS Process Chain (IPM; Lautenschlager, WDCC; Steinacker, UniVie; Rotach, MeteoSwiss) Coordination & DAP ETReC07 COPS-GRID(Bauer, IPM; Dick, GFZ; Wergen, DWD) COPS-Austria Moisture Net (Hauck, IMK) SurfAce fLuxes and Valley convEction(U Bayreuth, U Mainz, Kalthoff, IMK) COPS-France CI Lower and Upper Tropospheric Forcing of Convection (Barthlott, IMK) COPS-Italy COPS-CI Remote Sensing (Behrendt, IPM) Parameterization of Cumulus Convection (Küll, U Bonn) COPS-UK ACM COPS-LIDAR-IFT(Ansmann, IfT) ARM PPL TRACKS Life Cycle of Deep Convection during COPS (Hagen, DLR) WWRP MWF

  3. WWRP FDP D-PHASE • 6 ensemble prediction systems • 7 convection permitting models • 9 models with convection parameterization April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  4. Central Hypothesis The next generation of convection permitting models provides a breakthrough in modeling of the initiation and organization of convective systems. This results in an improvement of the skill of probabilistic precipitation forecasting. April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  5. Research Strategy • Combination of process studies and skill analyses in the COPS domain. • Links to PQP projects: • Process studies • Parameterizations • Ensemble design • Verification COPS/D-PHASE will become international convection and data assimilation testbed of April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  6. COPS Highlight 1: Airmass convection, July 15, 2007, IOP8b MSG Rapid Scan Service (RSS) The role of humidity April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  7. Wind and moisture fields DWD Radar radial velocity GPS IWV (Galina Dick, GFZ Potsdam) April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  8. Airmass convection, July 15, 2007, IOP8b: Model results MESO-NH and AROME were the only models, which predicted CI. Proposed as international reference case (GCSS)! CI in nature and model very similar. Windfield with convergence (Evelyne Richard, Lab. d‘Aerology, Toulouse). April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  9. COPS Highlight 2: Pre-frontal convergence line, July 20, 2007 5-min MSG RSS initiated by COPS team Cyclogenesis over France, development of a mesoscale convective system. Flooding events in UK and eastern Germany. April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  10. DWD radar network, July 20, 2007 Extreme precipitation was caused by a squall line, which developed ahead of the mesoscale convective system. April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  11. Highlight 3: Reductionofwindward/leeeffect D-PHASE model evaluation using COSMO-EU with convection parameterization and convection permitting COSMO-DE. April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  12. State-of-the-art of convection permitting modeling in COPS domain mm H L H L H H H H First evaluation of D-PHASE models in COPS domain. Meteo Swiss IPM DWD Meteo France April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  13. Predictability in collaborationwith NUMEX Design of an optimized multi-model, convection permitting ensemble prediction system. Proposal of future optimizations. l: likelihood, d: data vector, Mi: ith model, Mr: reference model. Bayesian factor B: A variable d is predictable in dependence of forecast range  if (sign. nonzero). April 10-11, 2008 DFG PP 1167 Kick-off Meeting, University of Bonn, Germany

  14. Data Provider PQP2/3 Data input Interface design Common data formats Data base design Upload survey User support User administration PQP3 New data sets PQP2 Data source synergy IOP access Observation data Validation products Higher value products Atmosperic model data COPS/GOP/D-PHASE Common Data Policy Assimilation products Gridded data products Hydro model data Additional info files Maintenance of long term archive Meta data description Detailed observation data Meta data description WDCC Pictures DFG rules for good scientific practice COPS staff at WDCC data archive Alerts Meta data description Data extraction User requirements Interface design User support User administration Scientific community COPS COPS GOP GOP D-PHASE D-PHASE WORLD

  15. Highlight 3 MESO-NH, MM5 simulation (with cloud liquid water) and VERA analysis valid for 14 UTC. Pronounced moisture flux con-vergence is observed over the Black Forest. DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany January 10-11, 2007

  16. Work Packages and Time Table A prerequisite of the success of COPS was the funding of dedicated staff for COPS coordination and the COPS data archive, and the development of the COPS web site. DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany January 10-11, 2007

  17. Work Packages and Time Table WP IPM 2: D-PHASE Process Chain DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany January 10-11, 2007

  18. Work Packages and Time Table WP UniVie 2 (UV2):Verification of D-PHASE model ensemble DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany January 10-11, 2007

  19. Work Packages and Time Table Winter 06/07 New warning index: Probability to exceed a Return Period,PRP Approach: - Use the model climatology to find a return level for a certain return period (for each grid point) - Find number of forecasts exceeding the return level - Give a probability to exceed the return level/period (PRP) (- Use Extreme Value Aanalysisforvery rare events (e.g. fit of a GPD)) Syntax: PRPx = Probab. to exceed an event occurring with a return period according to the x-quantile Example: PRP0.8 = event occurs every 5th day 120 days DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany January 10-11, 2007

  20. Work Packages and Time Table WP IPM 3: Predictability l: likelihood, d: data vector, Mi: ith model, Mr: reference model. Bayesian factor B: A variable d is predictable in dependence of forecast range  if (sign. nonzero). January 10-11, 2007 DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany

  21. Work Packages and Time Table Time schedule for performing the work packages by IPM, IMK, UniVie, MeteoSwiss (MS), and WDCC. All these work packages cover the two years, for which funding is requested. January 10-11, 2007 DFG PP 1167 Review Panel Meeting, Bad Honnef, Germany

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