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Jens Bjornavold Senior expert, Cedefop Brussels

Skill supply and demand in Europe Tendencies and challenges. Jens Bjornavold Senior expert, Cedefop Brussels. Ageing workforce. Most of 2020’s labour force already in work. Older adults are expected to work longer. Labour force by qualification. Source: Cedefop Forecast 2012.

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Jens Bjornavold Senior expert, Cedefop Brussels

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  1. Skill supply and demand in Europe Tendencies and challenges Jens Bjornavold Senior expert, Cedefop Brussels

  2. Ageing workforce Most of 2020’s labour force already in work Older adults are expected to work longer

  3. Labour force by qualification Source: Cedefop Forecast 2012

  4. Towards non-routine jobsA polarised and skill intensive economy million jobs 83 million job opportunities between 2010-2020 Source: Cedefop Forecast 2012

  5. Skill mismatch Source: EWCS (2010) Skill gaps Source: Manpower Talent survey (2011)

  6. Skills obsolescence • Without effective skill utilisation & development, under-skilling may occur over time • Loss of ability to maintain effective performance in current or future jobs • A major concern in the face of ageing, technological and organisational change Source: Cedefop pilot survey on skill obsolescence 2011

  7. Skill needs in Europe - Summary of evidence • Skill demand lags behind supply in the short-term • High replacement demand – sluggish expansion demand • Economic restructuring – reallocation of workers • Skill-intensive jobs on the rise • Polarisation towards non-routine jobs – but jobs requiring medium level qualifications still the backbone of economy • Significant displacement and mismatch • Skills shortages, skill gaps, skills obsolescence

  8. Skills forecasting not sufficient….. …… a need to continuously revise the feed-back mechanisms between education/training and the labour market varies across Europe Assessment and certification LABOUR MARKET Identificationofdemandforskillsandcompetences EDUCATION AND TRAININGSYSTEM Planninganddelivery Formulation of requirements

  9. Feed-back between education/training and the labour market varies across Europe • Four main types • A ‘liberal’ type characterised by low degree of coordination and to some extent market driven • A ‘statist’ model with strong state regulation and weak formal communication between education and labour market • A ‘participatory’ model characterised by clearly defined involvement of social partners • A ‘co-ordinated’ model where social partners play a decisive role • (Cedefop; to be published 2013)

  10. Feed-back between education/training and the labour market - challenges • Efficient feed back mechanism are required at all levels and need to work on a continuous basis to review, revise and renew skills requirements and skills provisions • Key questions to be asked: • Are relevant stakeholders involved in these feed back mechanisms? • How efficient is the flow of information between education and training and the labour market?

  11. European initiatives • support the feed back between education/training and the labour market by strengthening the focus on learning outcomes and skills/competences • The European Qualifications Framework (EQF); shifts the focus from education and training input to learning outcomes; 16 countries linked the qualifications to the EQF; the rest to follow during 2013 and 2014… • All countries are developing national qualifications frameworks (NQFs) • ESCO – the common European terminology on skills, competences, occupations and qualifications – will allow for a better dialogue between education and training and the labour market.

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