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Demographic and Economic Characteristics of Southeast Florida

Demographic and Economic Characteristics of Southeast Florida

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Demographic and Economic Characteristics of Southeast Florida

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  1. Demographic and Economic Characteristics of Southeast Florida South Florida Regional Planning Council

  2. Population dynamics in all of Southeast Florida (the seven counties from Monroe in the south to Indian River in the north) are driven by: Growth – The region has consistently grown more quickly than the nation, even if it now grows more slowly than the State of Florida as a whole. Mobility – International migration has been the largest source of net growth, but domestic inflows and outflows also contribute to the “pulse” of growth. Changes in composition – Migration, whether international or domestic, brings with it potential shifts in the age, race/ethnic and cultural make-up of the region. Increasing spatial integration – commuting patterns and county-to-county migration show rising levels of cross-county movement, especially within the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach MSA, but also moving north within the region. Despite the current downturn, when viewed on a competitive basis around the country, Southeast Florida continues to offer advantages that could position it well to resume growth when the national economy rebounds. Overview

  3. Per capita personal income in Southeast Florida in 2009 was $43,057, which was higher than the State of Florida ($38,965) and national ($39,635) averages. Still, the region was already feeling the economic downturn, as per capita income in 2009 was down from $43,887 in 2007 and $44,829 in 2008. Within the region, per capita income in 2009 ranged from $29,526 in St. Lucie County to $60,174 in Monroe County. Southeast Florida depends on Dividends, Interest and Rent for a larger portion of its personal income (30.0%) than either the State of Florida (26.9%) or the nation (18.0%). Both Indian River County and Martin County derived over half of personal income from this category in 2009, followed by Monroe County (45.4%) and Palm Beach County (43.7%). Transfer payments were highest as a proportion of overall personal income in St. Lucie County (27.9%) and Miami-Dade County (21.1%), compared to only 17.5% nationally. The per capita value of transfer payments was highest in Indian River County ($9,191) and Martin County ($8,644), where both Social Security and Medicare payments were relatively high. Personal Income

  4. Southeast Florida Real Per Capita Income 1990-2009 ($2009) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (April, 2011).

  5. Southeast Florida Per Capita Income by Source 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (April, 2011).

  6. Southeast Florida Per Capita Transfer Receipts by Type 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System (April, 2011).

  7. Southeast Florida % of Population Below Poverty Level, 1999 & 2010 Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census and 2010 American Community Survey.

  8. Southeast Florida % of Elderly Below Poverty Level, 1999 & 2010 Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census and 2010 American Community Survey.

  9. Southeast Florida % of Children Below Poverty Level, 1999 & 2010 Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census and 2010 American Community Survey.

  10. As the economy slowed down, both in the nation and in Southeast Florida, the job picture worsened dramatically: Between Dec/07 and Jan/10, over 213,000 jobs were lost in the 7-county region, a reduction of 7.1%. Of that total, almost 143,000 jobs were lost in South Florida (6.6%) and over 70,000 were lost in the Treasure Coast Region (8.4%). During that period, the region’s unemployment rate rose from 4.7% to 11.0%. In Aug/10, the unemployment rate reached 12.1% in South Florida and 13.0% in the Treasure Coast. As of Dec/11, the region’s rate was still at 9.7%. There were over 310,000 unemployed in Dec/11, down from 397,000 in Aug/10, but up from 147,000 in Dec/07 (111%). Since December 2007, the number of Southeast Florida residents enrolled for public assistance rose as well. In Nov/11, there were 654,000 households receiving food stamps worth almost $156 million, three times the $51 million in Dec/07. The Economic Downturn

  11. Southeast Florida Employment, 2007-11 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

  12. Southeast Florida Unemployment Rate, 2007-11 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

  13. Southeast FloridaMonthly Value of Food Stamp Benefits, 2007-11 Source: Florida Department of Children and Families (December, 2011)

  14. Southeast FloridaMedian Housing Value ($), 2005-2010 Source: US Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey.

  15. Resident Population Growth, 2000-10 Source: US Bureau of the Census

  16. Southeast Florida – Components of Population Change2000 to 2010 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research (May, 2011)

  17. Southeast FloridaPlace of Birth, 2010 Source: US Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey.

  18. Southeast FloridaForeign-Born Population, 1980-2010 Sources: US Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses, 2010 American Community Survey.

  19. In 2010, 87.2% of the region’s 2.2 million foreign-born residents came from Latin America. That included 1.1 million from the Caribbean, 434,000 from South America, and 329,000 from Central America. Countries of origin for the largest number of foreign-born residents of the region included Cuba (647,000), Haiti (193,000), Colombia (154,000), Jamaica (128,000), and Nicaragua (95,000). Other countries with a significant presence in 2010 included Mexico, Venezuela, Honduras, Peru and the Dominican Republic, each with more than 50,000 residents. Origin of the Foreign-Born

  20. Southeast FloridaJourney to Work Flows, 2009 Source: US Bureau of the Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, On the Map.

  21. There is enormous diversity within the categories we use to present data on race and ethnicity. The Black or African American population includes a large number of people from the Caribbean and Central and South America, and the Hispanic or Latino population is very diverse within. Between 2000 and 2010 there was continued rapid growth of the Hispanic (658,000) and non-Hispanic Black or African American (218,000) populations in Southeast Florida, and an absolute decrease in the non-Hispanic White population (-229,000). In 2010, the race/ethnic composition of Southeast Florida was made up of 39% Hispanic or Latino, 38% non-Hispanic White, 19% non-Hispanic Black or African American, and 4% other non-Hispanic. About 40% of the Hispanic population was born in the United States. In 2000, the non-Hispanic White population represented 47% of the regional total, down from 57% in 1990. In other words, the non-Hispanic White population of Southeast Florida ceased to be the majority sometime in the 1990s, due mostly to the growth of the Hispanic population in Miami-Dade County. Changing Composition - Race/Ethnicity

  22. Southeast FloridaRacial and Ethnic Composition of the Population, 2010 Source: US Bureau of the Census.

  23. Southeast FloridaChange in Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000-10 Source: US Bureau of the Census.

  24. Southeast Florida Age Distribution, 2010 Source: US Bureau of the Census

  25. Southeast Florida - Median Age, 1990-2010 Source: US Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses.

  26. Southeast FloridaChange in Age Composition by Gender, 2000-10 Source: US Bureau of the Census

  27. Southeast Florida Growth, 1920-2040 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research (June 2011)

  28. Current projections indicate that, over the next 2 decades, the population 65 and older in Southeast Florida will grow more than any other age cohort, as it absorbs the “baby boom” generation. The Region’s elderly are expected to increase by over 688,000 (58%), to over 1.7 million, rising from 16.6% of the total in 2010 to 23.3% of the total in 2030. The increase will be more pronounced in the Treasure Coast, where the elderly are projected to represent 28.4% of the total by 2030. In South Florida, the elderly are projected to reach over million (20.7% of the total) in 2030, up from 14.2% in 2010. Changing Composition - Age

  29. Southeast Florida Projections by Age2000-2030 Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research (February, 2012).

  30. Southeast Florida Population 65+, 2000-2030 Source: Office of Economic and Demographic Research (February, 2012).

  31. Factors that could affect future growth: Economic Recovery - The pace in the recovery of employment growth will contribute to the pace of population growth. Affordability – The high cost of insurance and property taxes, combined with relatively low wages, could make less expensive regions of the State and elsewhere in the US more attractive than Southeast Florida, unless there are adjustments in the coming years. Hurricanes / Insurance – If the region is hit repeatedly by hurricanes in the coming years, the disruption, the cost of repairs and increasing insurance costs could discourage residents from staying in Southeast Florida or coming here from other parts of the US. Growth - Uncertainties

  32. Factors that could affect future growth (continued): Changes in immigration laws and enforcement – Some of the legislative changes under consideration, if approved, along with more aggressive enforcement, could both affect the number of international in-migrants. External Events – As the earthquake in Haiti demonstrated, demographic flows into Southeast Florida are strongly affected by external events. Political and economic unrest in South and Central America and the Caribbean can generate unpredictable surges in international migration. Sea Level Rise – Although the most severe direct impacts of sea level rise appear to be beyond the 2030 timeframe that is the focus of this presentation, the need to prepare for its impacts starting now will have important consequences for the way the Region grows going forward. Growth - Uncertainties