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Statistical Analysis

Statistical Analysis

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Statistical Analysis

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  1. Statistical Analysis

  2. Purpose of Statistical Analysis • To check statistically the purity of electoral rolls • To identify high focus category of electors for improvement in electoral rolls e.g. Youth, women etc. • To identity high focus geographical areas for improvement of electoral rolls e.g. Urban areas, etc.

  3. What analysis is done • Elector Population ratio – The Ratio of electors to total population should be equal to the ratio of 18+ population to total population. For this purpose the population projected to the current year needs to be calculated from published census population and the multiplication factor based on decadal growth rate • Sex Ratio – Sex ratio of electoral roll should be the same as sex ratio of population as published in the census • Age Cohorts – The number of persons in a particular age group should match the umber of electors in that age group. For this purpose the age group wise population is calculated on the basis of census data • EPIC and photo coverage – EPIC and photo coverage should be for 100% electors in the electoral roll

  4. What are the pitfalls and precautions • Statistical analysis is only a tool. Actual addition or deletion should be done only by following the procedure given in the Registration of Electors Rules, 1960 and not based on statistical analysis • There can be many artifacts in the data e.g. there is heaping of numbers in ages with whole numbers. People tend to give their names as approximately 20 or 30 rather than 19 or 31 • Deviations from the expected in statistical analysis may be explainable by local factors e.g. in-migration or out-migration etc.

  5. Statistical Analysis at Poling Stations • Population at polling station should be taken from actual door to door survey at least in the election year and should be kept updated at all times by BLO • BLO should maintain a register (BLO register) and statistical analysis should be a part of BLO register

  6. When should statistical analysis be done • As pre-revision exercise to determine categories of voters and areas for special focus • Information in format 1 to 8 must be sent along with justification for observed deviations to ECI when seeking permission for final publication of rolls • For making the action plan for SVEEP

  7. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -1 SUMMARY OF LAST REVISION OF ELECTORAL ROLLS. • Date of publication of final roll in last revision • Total No. of voters in the part. • Total population of part/village • Total No. of male voters • Total No. of female voters. • Gender ratio = Female voter X 100 • Total No. of voters in the part • Gender population ratio = Total No. of voters X 200 • Total population of the part (from Statement 5). • Age cohort of the part : • 18 to 20 age group = No of voters in 18-20 age groupX 100 • Total no of voters in the Part • 21 to 29 age group = No of voters in 21-29 age groupX 100 • Total no of voters in the Part • 30 to 35, etc., etc.

  8. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -2 CONFIRMATION. • House No. • Name of the voter: • Name of head of family • Relation to Head of the family: • telephone no/ contact no • Whether registered as voter in this part : Y / N • If not registered in this part, give address where registered: • Are there any members of the family eligible for registering in Form-6 for current revision : Y / N (If yes fill up Statement -4) • Are there any members of the family eligible for registering in the next revision : Y / N ( If Yes fill up Statement 4A) • Whether EPIC issued : Y / N • Whether EPIC available with the Voter : Y / N • EPIC No. • Whether address is correct? Y / N • If not, give correct address: • Living at this address since how many years : • Any family member married/shifted since last revision? Y / N (if yes then fill up statement 4) • Any member dead since last revision? Y/N (if yes, fill up Statement-6) • Possibility of temporary shifting in the next one year : Y / N • (If yes, fill up Statement – 3) • Photo of the voter in Electoral Roll : Y / N • (If no, fill up Statement-7) • If all voters of the house hold are found shifted, then fill up Statement-3.

  9. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -3 SHIFTED VOTERS. • House number : • Name: • Name of head of family • Relation with the head of family • EPIC issued : Y/N • EPIC No. • Type of shifting : Permanent / Temporary • If temporary, then – • Purpose of shifting e.g. agricultural labor, temporary job, etc. • Place of shifting • Shifted since when : From_________(give month) to ______(give month) • Take a signed statement as per Form-1. • If permanent, then – • Reason for shifting such as, marriage, job, education, etc. • Place of shifting. • Shifted since when : Month_________, Year_________ • Panchanama as per Form 2

  10. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -4 ELIGIBILITY FOR FORM-6 IN CURRENT REVISION. • House number. • Name • Name of the head of the family. • relation with the head of the family • EPIC issued : Y/N • EPIC No. • Shifted within same part : Y/N • Shifted from another part / AC: Y/N • If yes then from which Part/AC • When shifted : Month_______, Year_______ • Whether fresh voter i.e. between the age 18 to 21 : Y / N • If yes, whether completed form No.6 received : Y / N

  11. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -4A LIST OF VOTERS TO BE REGISTERED IN THE NEXT REVISION YEAR(on attaining age of 18 years). • House No.: • Name • Name of the head of the family. • Date of birth: • will become eligible in revision of which year :

  12. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -5 PART POPULATION. • House No. • Total No. of persons living in this house.

  13. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -6 LIST OF VOTERS WHO HAVE EXPIRED • House No. • Name • Name of the head of family • EPIC No. • Date of death: • Death certificate made available: Y? N • If No, whether listed in Death Register maintained by –Panchayat/ Nagarpalika /Municipal Corporation • For serial no 7, death registration number and date

  14. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -7 PHOTO ELECTORAL ROLL • House No. • Name: • Name of the head of the family • EPIC issued: Y / N. • EPIC No. • Photograph obtained : Y / N • Signature of the voter:

  15. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -8 NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PART. • Number of newly constructed houses since last revision and the details • Number of newly constructed buildings that have come up since last revision • give details. • 3. Number of newly constructed societies that have come up since last revision and their details.

  16. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -9 ANALYSIS • Gender ratio of district • Age cohort of district • Elector population of District • Likely reasons for deviation in gender ratio • Likely reasons for deviation in age cohort • Likely reasons for deviation in elector-population ratio

  17. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -10 SUMMARY OF CURRENT REVISION. • Date of publication of final roll in current revision • Total No. of voters in the part. • Total population of part/village • Total No. of male voters • Total No. of female voters. • Gender ratio = Female voter X 100 • Total No. of voters in the part • Gender population ratio = Total No. of voters X 200 • Total population of the part (from Statement 5). • Age cohort of the part : • 18 to 20 age group = No of voters in 18-20 age groupX 100 • Total no of voters in the Part • 21 to 29 age group = No of voters in 21-29 age groupX 100 • Total no of voters in the Part • 30 to 35, etc., etc.

  18. Parts of BLO Register – Statement -11 MAPPING OF GOVT. FUNCTIONARIES RESIDING IN THE PART • House No. • Name: • Name of the head of the family. • EPIC No. • Whether voter in the same part : Y/N • If not give part where he/she registered as voter. • Designation in Government. • Serving or Retired. • Temporary or Permanent. • Class - I, II, III or IV. • Residing in the part since when :