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Evaluating the Neutral Model: A Probabilistic Test on Macro-Moth Community Dynamics

This talk presents a probabilistic test of the neutral model as applied to macro-moth communities in the UK. We explore local and metacommunity dynamics influenced by birth, death, and immigration patterns, supported by time series data from light traps. Our findings reveal significant limitations of the neutral model in fitting empirical data, as it requires unrealistically high parameter values. Suggestions for extending the model to incorporate essential components are discussed to enhance its applicability to ecological and evolutionary dynamics.

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Evaluating the Neutral Model: A Probabilistic Test on Macro-Moth Community Dynamics

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Presentation Transcript

    1. A Probabilistic Test of the Neutral Model C. M. Mutshinda1, R.B. O’Hara1, I.P. Woiwod2 1University of Helsinki, and 2Rothamsted Research, UK.

    2. Plan of the talk Introduction Model Results Conclusion Suggestions

    7. The UNTBB considers communities on two scales of communities: Local Community Governed by birth, death, immigration (from a metacommunity) Dynamics taking place an ecological time scale. Metacommunity Include an additional mechanism of speciation taking place on an evolutionary time scale.

    8.

    9. Consequences of the assumptions

    10.

    13. 3 macro-moth (Lepidoptera) time series from the Rothamsted Insect Survey light-traps network in the UK: Geescroft I & II (from the Rothamsted farm in Hertfordshire) and Tregaron (from a Nature reserve in mid-Wales)

    15. THE MODEL

    17. Sampling Model

    19. Model Fitting Bayesian approach

    20. RESULTS

    22. CONCLUSION The neutral model does not fit the data well as it would need parameter values that are impossible

    23. environmental stochasticity Density-dependence Species heterogeneity Effects of species interactions

    24. SUGGESTIONS The model can be extended to include the missing components, this will result in a complex model

    34. THANK YOU

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