1 / 67

The Politics and Economics of International Energy

The Politics and Economics of International Energy. Lecture 1 Introduction – Long-Term Energy Scenarios – Dimensions of the Energy Issue in International Relations. Prof. Giacomo Luciani. Contact details. Giacomo.luciani@graduateinstitute.ch Office telephone: +41 22 7162730 Office hours:

ranee
Télécharger la présentation

The Politics and Economics of International Energy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Politics and Economics of International Energy Lecture 1 Introduction – Long-Term Energy Scenarios – Dimensions of the Energy Issue in International Relations Prof. Giacomo Luciani

  2. Contact details • Giacomo.luciani@graduateinstitute.ch • Office telephone: +41 22 7162730 • Office hours: By appointment c/o Gulf Research Center Foundation 49, Avenue Blanc, 1202 Genève

  3. Readings • Too much to read… • You should: • Learn to read selectively • Make sure that you can retrieve, not necessarily recall, relevant information • Separate the gold from the sand

  4. Readings availability • CD-Rom containing a large part of the readings and other important documentation. • The contents of the CD-Rom will also be available on the Intranet and a copy of the CD will be deposited in the Library. Readings MUST be completed IN ADVANCE of each class. • However, you are not expected to read everything: you should use your judgment in selecting what is truly important. • Readings that are available only on paper are highlighted in yellow. • Background reading: Daniel Yergin, “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power” • You are expected to read this book in parallel with class proceeding although it is not listed as reading for any class. It is fun to read anyhow.

  5. Requirements • A mid term and a final • Short (max 700 words) professional memo on one out of three or four topics proposed • You will be able to use all course material and sources • Topics will be drawn from current developments

  6. Global Energy Trends

  7. The Global Crisis • We have witnessed an earthquake of 9+ magnitude (Richter scale – 1 every 20 years) in the global political economy. • Earthquakes are caused by movement in the tectonic plates: over time, these movements accumulate unresolved stress – the quake releases the stress. • Unresolved stress = unadjusted disequilibria

  8. Which tectonic plates • The recent earthquake is the result of the clash of several tectonic plates • Finance • Energy • Globalization and division of labor • Military power • Global governance • The epicenter has been in the US

  9. Finance stress lines in the US • Excessive indebtedness of families • Large and rapidly growing government deficit • Large and growing trade deficit • CURRENT TRENDS ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE

  10. Energy stress lines Global warming Alienation of companies from resources and vice-versa Huge gaps in energy consumption standards CURRENT TRENDS ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE

  11. A word about scenarios 1 • Global energy scenarios are complex– only few institutions can afford to produce them • The most widely quoted are IEA’s and EIA’s; also to be considered: OPEC (for oil), EU Commission, ExxonMobil, Shell; other institutions produce occasional scenarios • IEA: World Energy Outlook (WEO) published in November each year • EIA: International Energy Outlook (IEO) published in June each year

  12. A word about scenarios 2 • Scenarios are not meant to be realistic images of the future • They extrapolate trends under certain assumptions • They allow exploring the sustainability or coherence of policies • They generally contain one or more “messages” • They reflect the politics of the institution producing them

  13. Determinants of energy demand

  14. Diminishing energy intensity

  15. Limited catch-up

  16. Growing global energy demand

  17. World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable! 18 000 Mtoe Other renewables 16 000 Hydro 14 000 Nuclear 12 000 Biomass 10 000 Gas 8 000 6 000 Coal 4 000 Oil 2 000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise

  18. 100% Rest of the world India China 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Total energy Coal Oil Nuclear Hydro Power sector investments Reference Scenario:The Emerging Giants of World Energy Increase in Primary Energy Demand & Investment Between 2005 & 2030 as Share of World Total China & India will contribute more than 40% of the increase in global energy demand to 2030 on current trends

  19. Energy-related CO2 emissions in the Reference Scenario 45 International marine bunkers Gigatonnes and aviation 40 Non-OECD - gas 35 Non-OECD - oil 30 Non-OECD - coal OECD - gas 25 OECD - oil 20 OECD - coal 15 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries – three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

  20. 10 000 Cumulative emissions Rest of the 8 000 United States world 30% 33% 6 000 million tonnes India 2% European China 4 000 Japan Union 8% 4% 23% 2 000 0 1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region, 1900-2005 Over the last century, China has contributed only 8% of global emissions & India 2%

  21. Reference Scenario:World’s Top Five CO2 Emitters China overtook the US to become the largest emitter in 2007, while India becomes the third-largest by 2015

  22. 6 000 Oil Mtoe Coal 5 000 Gas 4 000 Biomass 3 000 Nuclear Hydro 2 000 Other renewables 1 000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario World energy demand expands by 45% between 2006 and 2030 – an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise

  23. Cumulative energy-supply investment in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030 Coal 3% Biofuels <1% $0.7 trillion $0.2 trillion Gas 21% Oil 24% Power 52% $13.6 trillion $5.5 trillion $6.3 trillion Shipping Shipping & 4% Refining ports Transmission 16% 9% Transmission & distribution Power Exploration & 31% & distribution generation development 50% 50% Exploration and 61% Mining LNG chain development 91% 8% 80% Investment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but the credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch once the economy recovers

  24. World energy-related CO2 emissionsin 2030 by scenario 40 Gigatonnes 35 OECD 30 25 20 World 15 World Non-OECD 10 5 0 Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero

  25. Hydro 2006 Other (wind, solar, etc) World 2015 2030 2006 OECD 2015 2030 2006 Non-OECD 2015 2030 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Share of renewables in electricity generation in the Reference Scenario Soon after 2010, renewables become the 2nd-largest source of electricity behind coal, thanks to government support, prospects for higher fossil-fuel prices & declining investment costs

  26. Total oil production in 2030 by scenario 120 Non-OPEC mb/d OPEC 100 9 mb/d 16 mb/d 80 60 40 20 0 2007 Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario 2030 2030 2030 Curbing CO2 emissions would improve energy security by cutting demand for fossil fuels, but even in the 450 Policy Scenario, OPEC production increases by 12 mb/d from now to 2030

  27. Reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions in the climate-policy scenarios 45 550 450 Policy Policy Gigatonnes Scenario Scenario Nuclear 40 9% CCS 14% Renewables & biofuels 23% 35 Energy efficiency 30 54% 25 20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario While technological progress is needed to achieve some emissions reductions, efficiency gains and deployment of existing low-carbon energy accounts for most of the savings

  28. Total power generation capacity today and in 2030 by scenario Coal 1.2 x today Gas 1.5 x today 1.8 x today Nuclear Hydro 2.1 x today Wind 13.5 x today Other renewables 12.5 x today Coal and gas with CCS 15% of today’s coal & gas capacity 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 GW Today 450 Policy Scenario 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 In the 450 Policy Scenario, the power sector undergoes a dramatic change – with CCS, renewables and nuclear each playing a crucial role

  29. 22 CCS coal-fired plants (800 MW) Coal CCS 20 CCS gas-fired plants (500 MW) Gas CCS 30 nuclear reactors (1000 MW) Nuclear 2 Three Gorges Dams Hydropower 400 CHP plants (40 MW) Biomass and waste 17 000 turbines (3 MW) Wind Other Renewables 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 GW Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions in the 450 Stabilisation Case, 2013-2030 A large amount of capacity would need to be retired early, entailing substantial costs

  30. Key results of the post-2012 climate-policy analysis 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario Corresponds to a c.2C global temperature rise Energy demand grows, but half as fast as in Reference Scenario Rapid deployment of low-carbon technologies – particularly CCS Big fall in non-OECD emissions CO2 price in 2030 reaches $180/tonne OPEC production still 12mb/d higher in 2030 than today Additional investment equal to 0.6% of GDP • Corresponds to a c.3C global temperature rise • Energy demand continues to expand, but fuel mix is markedly different • CO2 price in OECD countries reaches $90/tonne in 2030 • Additional investment equal to 0.25% of GDP

  31. Summary & conclusions • Current energy trends are patently unsustainable — socially, environmentally, economically • Oil will remain the leading energy source but... • The era of cheap oil is over, although price volatility will remain • Oilfield decline is the key determinant of investment needs • The oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change, with national companies in the ascendancy • To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate change we need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system • Copenhagen must deliver a credible post-2012 climate regime • Limiting temperature rise to 2C will require significant emission reductions in all regions & technological breakthroughs • Mitigating climate change will substantially improve energy security • The present economic worries do not excuse back-tracking or delays in taking action to address energy challenges

  32. Copenhagen: a plausible post-2012 global climate-change policy regime The 550 Policy Scenario The 450 Policy Scenario Other Major Economies Other Countries OECD+ National policies and measures Cap and trade Power generation Cap and trade National policies and measures International sectoral approaches Industry International sectoral approaches Transport Buildings National policies and measures A combination of policy mechanisms – reflecting nations’ varied circumstances & current negotiating positions – is a realistic outcome at the Copenhagen COP at end-2009

  33. 2 000 1 000 Billion dollars (2007) 0 -1 000 -2 000 -3 000 Power plants Power Fossil fuel Biofuels Efficiency - Efficiency - Efficiency - transmission supply buildings transport industry and distribution Change in world energy investment in the 550 Policy relative to the Reference Scenario, 2010-2030 Most of the incremental investment in the 550 Policy Scenario is in existing technologies

  34. 5 000 450 Policy Scenario (additional to 550) 4 000 550 Policy Scenario Billion dollars (2007) 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 2010-2020 2021-2030 2010-2020 2021-2030 Power plants Energy efficiency Additional investments in the climate-policy scenarios versus the Reference Scenario Power-sector investment in the last decade of the Outlook period in the 450 Policy Scenario is almost double that in the Reference Scenario

  35. WEO 2009 Preliminary results Given the present crisis, the IEA now forecasts that the global oil demand will only grow by 0.6% per year during the 2008-2014 period to reach 89m b/d in 2014.

More Related